WX charts - in week 1 there is a band of cool and disturbed weather across the Alps and SE Europe even with some extension to Turkey, the Med still hot but Britain across to the Baltic is warmer and dry compared to areas to the south. In week 2, the disturbed area is filling in and fragments of it are found further south, cooler around the Adriatic and wetter around Sicily. Normal service resumed for N Europe, warm and fairly dry for S Britain and S Baltic, cooler and wetter progressively further north, notably cold for N Norway and N Russia.
GFS Op - a broad band of HP setting up from Scotland to Norway this week, but collapsing at the weekend as LP moves in from the SW, 1010mb Brittany Sun 22nd. This allows LPs to run past N Scotland in week 2 e.g. 985mb Rockall Wed 25th while HP returns to S England. The consequent W-lies last for a few days before a large area of cold LP develops 975mb Faeroes Wed 2nd with a trough extending S to the Channel.
ECM - similar to GFS but the LP for Rockall is flabbier, however there is a small intense ex?-hurricane in its circulation approaching SW Ireland.
GEM - closer to ECM, the LP from Brittany clears to the NE and pressure rises while the LP for Rockall stalls in the Atlantic until the ex-hurricanes (two in this model) stir things up
GEFS - temps near or slightly (in the S) or definitely (in the N) above norm with good agreement until about Wed 25th, after which mean stays near norm, optimism from op & control balanced by some cold outliers. Rain appears in the profile from Sun 22nd or a couple of days later in the N, most runs have small amounts but several have intermittent (in the S) or frequent (in the N) downpours.
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