Hurricane season 2024· Page 10

Steve
Advanced Member

10 October 2024 10:32:03

The hurricanes are spreading!

Most major areas in the UK are forecast hurricane force winds imminently, with Edinburgh suffering the worst with gusts up to 17,246mph, followed by Cornwall at 16,309mph and Liverpool 15,227mph. London, by comparison, gets away with mere13,508mph breeze.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0kjrp2rngzo

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow

That would blow the cobwebs away ! (and the spiders that made them....and the house that the spiders lived in !)

fairweather
Advanced Member

10 October 2024 10:43:18

#227

And I'd imagine the BBC are banging on the global warming being responsible drum as they usually do.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme

Everything I've heard about being global warming related has been perfectly sensible - more energy available so more intensity possible but not particularly more frequent.

S.Essex, 42m ASL

+1

fairweather
Advanced Member

10 October 2024 10:45:53

#228

With the greatest respect, 125 mph winds are rather more than ‘a blowy night’; plus and a storm surge at its worst of maybe 4-5 metres; plus almost half a metre of rain in the worst affected areas. Oh, and not forgetting the crop of tornadoes, nor the damage caused by Helene which has left huge piles of potential projectiles around and weakened/damaged buildings.

As for ‘far worse has been seen in Florida’, not in the part that’s going to take the direct hit.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White

Yes, we got 123mph in our Great Storm and look what that did! Also I imagine once you've past the building damage threshold the impact plateaus to an extent.

S.Essex, 42m ASL

+1

fairweather
Advanced Member

10 October 2024 10:51:26

#229

It'll be higher than that, the Beeb has 14598mph winds here, but it's clipped off so looks like 459(and half an 😎.

Makes me wonder why they don't have some code which just leaves the display blank if it's over a certain (impossible) amount!

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/bbc.jpg

EDIT: The Beeb has an article on it now. Seems temperatures have been affected in some places too, 404C!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0kjrp2rngzo

Originally Posted by: Retron

Yes - should have been running Cumulus - that can cut out spikes 😂

S.Essex, 42m ASL

Retron
Advanced Member

10 October 2024 11:05:42

#230

On the rainfall front some areas had over 18 inches with a return period of a 1000 years. I saw one station recorded 9 inches in the space of an hour - that's bonkers!

Originally Posted by: scillydave

To put that into perspective, the UK records are 92mm in an hour (3.6 inches) and 279mm in a day (11 inches).

That hurricane had some serious moisture involved with it!

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-climate-extremes

Leysdown, north Kent

Retron
Advanced Member

10 October 2024 11:07:41

#231

Yes, we got 123mph in our Great Storm and look what that did! Also I imagine once you've past the building damage threshold the impact plateaus to an extent.

Originally Posted by: fairweather

T'other thing to remember is that the winds quoted are sustained, not gusts (which will be a fair bit higher).

100mph+ is bad enough when it's in the form of gusts (I still remember my bedroom shuddering in 1987, and that was around 95mph in terms of gusts), but 120 sustained? Devastating, frankly.

Leysdown, north Kent

Gandalf The White
Advanced Member

10 October 2024 11:17:07

#232

Well at least the temp isn't 451F.

Originally Posted by: NMA

LOL, very good.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E

+1

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

10 October 2024 11:41:13

#233

It'll be higher than that, the Beeb has 14598mph winds here, but it's clipped off so looks like 459(and half an 😎.

Makes me wonder why they don't have some code which just leaves the display blank if it's over a certain (impossible) amount!

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/bbc.jpg

EDIT: The Beeb has an article on it now. Seems temperatures have been affected in some places too, 404C!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0kjrp2rngzo

Originally Posted by: Retron

The fact it's still showing the dodgy data is ridiculous. V embarrassing for them.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

White Meadows
Advanced Member

10 October 2024 12:45:16

#234

Sky News still peddling the ridiculous “Unsurvivable Hurricane” nonsense headline.
I know Biden is almost as awful as Starmer, and it shows in his commentary as well
Safety first - absolutely - but let’s take a bit of perspective

Originally Posted by: Matty H

Shocking how Biden has used the hurricane as a pretext to his political agenda, then has the audacity to say “safety first”

Saint Snow
Advanced Member

10 October 2024 12:50:44

#235

Shocking how Biden has used the hurricane as a pretext to his political agenda, then has the audacity to say “safety first”

Originally Posted by: White Meadows

Zzzz...

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

+1

NMA
Advanced Member

10 October 2024 12:52:17

#236

The fact it's still showing the dodgy data is ridiculous. V embarrassing for them.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman

Indeed and the suggestion that it could be a malicious actor should be of concern to us too.
Talk about timing.
https://www.reading.ac.uk/news/2024/Expert-Comment/BBC-Weather-forecast-issues-undermine-credibility

Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft

White Meadows
Advanced Member

10 October 2024 12:56:18

#237

Zzzz...

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow

Indeed. He can and will have a tendency to just drop off during public announcements.

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

10 October 2024 15:18:04

#238

Indeed and the suggestion that it could be a malicious actor should be of concern to us too.
Talk about timing.
https://www.reading.ac.uk/news/2024/Expert-Comment/BBC-Weather-forecast-issues-undermine-credibility

Originally Posted by: NMA

Well if it is a hacker they have done a very good job it's still a complete mess.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

Retron
Advanced Member

10 October 2024 15:45:35

#239

Indeed and the suggestion that it could be a malicious actor should be of concern to us too.
Talk about timing.

Originally Posted by: NMA

No concern to me, TBH - either way it's the fault of their IT team and they need to sort it, pronto.

They should at least have disabled the dodgy stats (or removed forecasts entirely) while they sorted it out, and it shows their coding sucks - they should have code in place to strip out any obviously duff data and clearly they don't.

Leysdown, north Kent

+1

Chunky Pea
Advanced Member

10 October 2024 17:16:30

#240

That’s not true: it is exceptional for a major hurricane to move east across the Gulf of Mexico to hit the west coast of Florida ‘square on’: that increases the storm surge.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White

Hurricanes are incredibly random things, and Gulf generated storms increase in frequency as the season wears on. Stop trying to make something out of nothing.

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022

+3

DEW
Advanced Member Topic Starter

10 October 2024 20:19:55

#241

Hurricanes are incredibly random things, and Gulf generated storms increase in frequency as the season wears on. Stop trying to make something out of nothing.

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea

I refer you to my post #126 which documents the unusual nature of Milton

Last time a hurricane took a similar track was apparently 1859
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/10/major-landfalling-hurricane-threat-setting-up-for-floridas-west-coast/

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl

Gandalf The White
Advanced Member

11 October 2024 00:48:55

#242

Hurricanes are incredibly random things, and Gulf generated storms increase in frequency as the season wears on. Stop trying to make something out of nothing.

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea

Please don’t display your ignorance of what happened.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E

Chunky Pea
Advanced Member

11 October 2024 05:25:14

#243

Please don’t display your ignorance of what happened.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White

What happened exactly - during hurricane season in the Gulf? As you say, the path is unusual, but that means little. in random and spontaneous occurrences like hurricanes, noise has to be allowed.

Path of the October 1921 hurricane that heavily impacted Tampa Bay. Initiation point not the same, but the path towards western Florida pretty similar. It happens.

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022

+1

Chunky Pea
Advanced Member

11 October 2024 05:41:43

#244

Pre hurricane tornado report from the Oct 1964 hurricane event that ran up the Gulf (though not initiated in it)

Early on October 3rd through early on October 4th, several tornadoes occurred across Southeast Louisiana. On October 3rd around 6:00 AM CST, an F1 tornado affected Golden Meadow in Lafourche parish. At 6:30 AM CST, one of the strongest and deadliest tropical cyclone tornadoes ever recorded in the state of Louisiana occurred at Larose in Lafourche parish. This tornado was rated an F4, killed 22 people and injured 165 others. At 9:00 AM CST, an F2 tornado tracked across Orleans and Jefferson parishes affecting areas from Kenner to New Orleans, causing 5 injuries and 2.5 million in damages. An F2 tornado occurred at 11:10 CST in Napoleonville in Assumption parish. On October 4th around 3:25 AM CST, an F2 tornado occurred in Madisonville in St. Tammany parish. For complete details on all the tornadoes reported

https://www.weather.gov/lch/1964Hilda

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022

Matty H
Advanced Member

11 October 2024 06:25:45

#245

https://news.sky.com/story/hurricane-milton-hits-florida-latest-live-updates-13230451?postid=8424052#liveblog-body

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html

Quantum
Advanced Member

11 October 2024 06:42:06

#246

Subtropical looking thingy as promised forming near Iberia.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

Gandalf The White
Advanced Member

11 October 2024 15:30:49

#247

What happened exactly - during hurricane season in the Gulf? As you say, the path is unusual, but that means little. in random and spontaneous occurrences like hurricanes, noise has to be allowed.

Path of the October 1921 hurricane that heavily impacted Tampa Bay. Initiation point not the same, but the path towards western Florida pretty similar. It happens.

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea

That path is not at all similar. Milton developed in the western Gulf off the Yucatán Peninsula, and moved eastwards; that was my point. Scrabbling around to try to find an excuse for your misjudged comment doesn’t alter anything.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E