theweatheroutlook

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Brian Gaze
11 October 2024 21:33:42
I've removed a number of posts from this thread. Please stay on topic or I will have to lock it.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
tallyho_83
12 October 2024 23:06:20
@ +252z on 18z GFS shows something brewing in the gulf and heading toward NW Florida once again: - May not verify of course but something to keep an eye on once again:

UserPostedImage
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


picturesareme
19 October 2024 18:09:33
Hurricane Oscar what an embarrassing hurricane for the NHC 😂
Just a few hours ago it was (apparently) a disturbance with a 20% chance of developing. Then they sent hurricane recon plane to investigate finding it was already a cat 1 hurricane.
Gandalf The White
19 October 2024 20:30:35

Hurricane Oscar what an embarrassing hurricane for the NHC 😂
Just a few hours ago it was (apparently) a disturbance with a 20% chance of developing. Then they sent hurricane recon plane to investigate finding it was already a cat 1 hurricane.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Why is it embarrassing?  The earlier forecast was based on the latest available data. Are you suggesting they should guess?
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+2
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
20 October 2024 06:21:18

Why is it embarrassing?  The earlier forecast was based on the latest available data. Are you suggesting they should guess?

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


The expectation is that with satellite data you should know about hurricane formation the instant it happens, if not before; against which, as we've seen already this summer, current models were developed for an era in which SSTs were not as elevated as they are now.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Gandalf The White
20 October 2024 09:32:49

The expectation is that with satellite data you should know about hurricane formation the instant it happens, if not before; against which, as we've seen already this summer, current models were developed for an era in which SSTs were not as elevated as they are now.

Originally Posted by: DEW 


Well, since Oscar developed very fast obviously the satellite data wasn’t sufficiently up to date either.

As for the computer models, that’s not correct: the models are based on physics, so they should deal with warmer oceans - and as we have seen with other storms this season, they do.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
20 October 2024 09:47:39

Well, since Oscar developed very fast obviously the satellite data wasn’t sufficiently up to date either.

As for the computer models, that’s not correct: the models are based on physics, so they should deal with warmer oceans - and as we have seen with other storms this season, they do.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


As I understand it, the models are modified and improved with feedback from actual situations, which is why predictions of British weather are more accurate if there's a westerly dominance rather than, say, northerly or easterly. As SSTs in the Caribbean and W Atlantic have been unprecedently high, I would expect that a similar feedback process will lead to more accurate hurricane forecasts in the future.

The physics doesn't change, but our understanding of its implications does.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
27 October 2024 22:20:02
Indian authorities arranged the evacuation of up to a million people in advance of cyclone Dana a couple of days ago, but (I hope)  this was a storm surge precaution as it only appears to have reached cat 1.
Meanwhile hurricane Kirsty in the east Pacific, far from land, blew up into a cat 5 and died again almost as quickly.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
31 October 2024 07:22:42
Typhoon Kong-rey bashes Taiwan, the largest storm to hit island since 1996
(Cat 3 on landfall)

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/31/asia/taiwan-typhoon-kong-rey-landfall-intl-hnk/index.html 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
tallyho_83
02 November 2024 23:01:51
GFS has picked up on something brewing in the Gulf? Yet Again? 
UserPostedImage
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPNA18_96_1.png 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
03 November 2024 07:46:15

GFS has picked up on something brewing in the Gulf? Yet Again? 
UserPostedImage
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPNA18_96_1.png 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


90% chance in 7 days according to NHC, which is as close to certainty as you get from them.

Meanwhile TS Patty has cropped up by the Azores and is forecast to menace N Portugal as a TD in a few days.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
picturesareme
03 November 2024 14:08:54

90% chance in 7 days according to NHC, which is as close to certainty as you get from them.

Meanwhile TS Patty has cropped up by the Azores and is forecast to menace N Portugal as a TD in a few days.

Originally Posted by: DEW 


Looking at the satellite it already looks like a tropical storm has developed. We'll find out later when the plane goes out to investigate.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
04 November 2024 08:32:26
Now PTC 18 (Potential Tropical Cyclone) with track forecast as TS to develop shortly (Rafael), and thence to become a hurricane over the W end of Cuba on Wed, before dying out in the Gulf as it comes up against strong wind shear.

EDIT: now officially named Rafael, no change in forecast
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
08 November 2024 09:31:46
Rafael now going round in circles in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, not affecting land after that bash at W Cuba.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
The Beast from the East
17 November 2024 10:29:49
If this was America, it would be headline news
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
+1

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