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Ally Pally Snowman
10 November 2024 17:28:53
12s continue the theme of a proper cold spell developing about the 18th/19th. Marginal in the South but not bad really for November. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
10 November 2024 17:44:32

12s continue the theme of a proper cold spell developing about the 18th/19th. Marginal in the South but not bad really for November. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


More interesting is a potential for sliding lows which inevitably bring colder and colder conditions ! Cold November rain always welcome though
Ally Pally Snowman
10 November 2024 18:12:53

More interesting is a potential for sliding lows which inevitably bring colder and colder conditions ! Cold November rain always welcome though

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Ensembles starting to look decent aswell.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
David M Porter
10 November 2024 19:16:51

12s continue the theme of a proper cold spell developing about the 18th/19th. Marginal in the South but not bad really for November. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


This must be the most interesting model output there has been in any November since 2010, as far as I can recall. I can't recall exactly what dates in November 2010 the 'eye-candy' charts began to appear but I have a vague memory that it was around mid-month. I certainly didn't forsee a week or two ago that the model runs would now be looking as interesting as many runs now are.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Saint Snow
10 November 2024 19:32:13

Cold November rain always welcome though

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



?si=_d3ZJKLhMvneaBX1

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+4
squish
10 November 2024 19:40:40
Just of note the DWD didn’t back down from the scenario promoted yesterday by many ops , dropped ( a bit) on the 00z’s and now almost unanimously promoted on the latest 12z set  of model output . The pivotal bit is now getting into the reliable …
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
10 November 2024 20:05:46
Ecm 12z has a nice  dump of snow on the 19th for the Midlands 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+2
White Meadows
10 November 2024 21:47:32

This must be the most interesting model output there has been in any November since 2010, as far as I can recall. I can't recall exactly what dates in November 2010 the 'eye-candy' charts began to appear but I have a vague memory that it was around mid-month. I certainly didn't forsee a week or two ago that the model runs would now be looking as interesting as many runs now are.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


I remember Met office long range text updates changing and hinting a couple of weeks out at least. The model eye candy popped up soon after, then the forecasts all of a sudden turned very bullish about severe cold. The confidence and certainty was something I’d never seen before (or since) in winter. What made it more special was the timing, first week of December, although a month later could have resulted in even more severity with weaker sun, drier & cooler ground. 
I’ve heard a few rumours, probably unfounded that Met office expect snow at the end of this month. But I typically refuse to believe it until the nowcasting begins these days. 
nsrobins
10 November 2024 22:26:07
And so it begins 😂
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
idj20
10 November 2024 22:39:15
Am seeing near-perfect winter synoptics with the surface pressure aspect in the models but cold uppers seem to be watered down/diluted no matter what so precipitation end up being sleet or cold rain at low levels. Probably too early in the season with SSTs still on the warm side, but that's my own take. 
Folkestone Harbour. 
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
11 November 2024 07:47:46
WX charts show less direct attack of cold weather from N Russia, though it's still there and in week 1 deposits something fairly cold across C & E Europe. Then in week 2 the freezing weather takes a more N-ly route across Scandinavia, reaching Scotland, still as freezing, and Britain all except the far S becomes much colder. Ppt'n in week 1 fairly light and mostly in C & W Mediterranean plus some in the N Atlantic. Then in week 2 much heavier for Adriatic, Biscay and W Britain with some weaker extension to the Baltic.

GFS Op - HP sitting over or just W of Britain to Fri 16th while LP winds up over N Norway. This Lp then projects N-lies over Britain including a deep secondary Tue 19th 985mb S Ireland (it was much deeper and colder on last night's 12z, indeed a spectacular winter storm) which for the rest of the week takes a tour of France, Denmark and back to Norway keeping Britain in the grip of NE/N-lies to Sun 24th. Then a new and potentially damaging winter storm from Greenland parks itself 955mb Hebrides Tue 26th with gales for all (although the gales are SW-lies, they are "returning polar maritime" so cold and unsettled).

ECM - similar to GFS though the secondary on Tue 19th is less deep and further east (980mb N Sea) and returns to Norway more quickly, it still introduces the cold N/NE-ly flow.

GEM - more like ECM than GFS, and indeed as the LP returns to Norway the coldest of the weather relaxes its grip, esp in the SW, as some Atlantic influence moves in by Wed 20th

GEFS - temps drop sharply to very cold at the end of the week (5or 6 C below norm by Sun 18th) with good ens agreement. The mean recovers slowly to norm by Wed 27th, op run amongst the coldest but control much milder at times esp in the S, and pptn often heavy esp in N & W sets in also from 17th. In the week following 17th snow row figures of as high as 8 are forecast even for the south coast and as high as 27 for Inverness.
 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
Brian Gaze
11 November 2024 09:26:24
A direct plunge of Arctic air over all of the UK now seems unlikely, at least initially. This looks like a decent set-up for snow in the north, especially over high ground. In the south we'll need to get lucky I suspect.  

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
11 November 2024 10:32:26
00z GEFS for London has a snow row of 10 on 21st Nov, so that's one eyebrow half-raised. Though I'm also bearing in mind Brian's immediately preceding post.
Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
Ally Pally Snowman
11 November 2024 10:42:12
Well yet again the GFS 6z produces a snowy run for a decent chunk of the country. 
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=25&run=6&time=219&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Retron
11 November 2024 11:14:37

Well yet again the GFS 6z produces a snowy run for a decent chunk of the country. 
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=25&run=6&time=219&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


I could guess which part of the country *wouldn't* be included in that - and I was right! Still, cold rain would make a change from two weeks of gloom...

Incidentally this pattern of diving lows reminds me of the late Nov/early Dec cold spell of 2009, which saw plenty of snow here. The difference is that was "seeded" by a Scandinavian High, and that meant the lower layers of the atmosphere were cooled in advance of the diving lows - we wouldn't have that this time, plus two weeks earlier and 15 years of warming means it's that much harder in the first place!

(FWIW between 61-90 and 91-20, my local station, Faversham, has warmed by 1.4C!
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-climate-averages/u10eu40xb  )
Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
11 November 2024 11:55:38

I could guess which part of the country *wouldn't* be included in that - and I was right! Still, cold rain would make a change from two weeks of gloom...

Incidentally this pattern of diving lows reminds me of the late Nov/early Dec cold spell of 2009, which saw plenty of snow here. The difference is that was "seeded" by a Scandinavian High, and that meant the lower layers of the atmosphere were cooled in advance of the diving lows - we wouldn't have that this time, plus two weeks earlier and 15 years of warming means it's that much harder in the first place!

(FWIW between 61-90 and 91-20, my local station, Faversham, has warmed by 1.4C!
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-climate-averages/u10eu40xb  )

Originally Posted by: Retron 


I think its still odds against for snow here as well, but it's nice just to have a chance so early in the season.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=gfs&var=26&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+2
ballamar
11 November 2024 12:09:32

I could guess which part of the country *wouldn't* be included in that - and I was right! Still, cold rain would make a change from two weeks of gloom...

Incidentally this pattern of diving lows reminds me of the late Nov/early Dec cold spell of 2009, which saw plenty of snow here. The difference is that was "seeded" by a Scandinavian High, and that meant the lower layers of the atmosphere were cooled in advance of the diving lows - we wouldn't have that this time, plus two weeks earlier and 15 years of warming means it's that much harder in the first place!

(FWIW between 61-90 and 91-20, my local station, Faversham, has warmed by 1.4C!
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-climate-averages/u10eu40xb  )

Originally Posted by: Retron 


We love cold rain in this part of the country in November! Let’s wait for the roaring deep easterly in late December 🙂
+1
Brian Gaze
11 November 2024 12:11:20
GEFS 06Z looks to serve up quite a mixed bunch. 

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Saint Snow
11 November 2024 13:13:48
As luck would have it, we've got a visit to Chatsworth booked for the 22nd. 

😏

Always a pleasant drive through the Peak District 🤣

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
nsrobins
11 November 2024 13:16:42
My take on the current status is a colder spell is likely from the weekend with some wintry potential but this really isn’t anything too unusual for mid/late November.
It’ll make a nice change though for sure. I’m in Edinburgh for a few days next week - I’ll have to remember to take a light coat 😉
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Quantum
11 November 2024 13:47:48
Three options.
1) Blink and you miss it cold spell. Mostly just HP ridging in from the west, frosty nights but no snow.
2) Northerly toppler type thing. Snow showers in N scotland and over the hills in N England but that's about it
3) Extended cold spell

We know by now 3) is the least likely, but I will say the models have been thinking about this for a while. It appeared at 384 can you believe!
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
+1
Rob K
11 November 2024 16:14:01


(FWIW between 61-90 and 91-20, my local station, Faversham, has warmed by 1.4C!
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-climate-averages/u10eu40xb  )

Originally Posted by: Retron 


I'm not sure if Faversham is one of them, but it's worth noting that many of these Met Office station averages are "interpolated", that is, totally made up, because so many stations have shut down over the years.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
Retron
11 November 2024 16:25:58

I'm not sure if Faversham is one of them, but it's worth noting that many of these Met Office station averages are "interpolated", that is, totally made up, because so many stations have shut down over the years.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I was careful to pick Faversham, which is better known as Brogdale - it has, of course, been running for donkey's years and is still current.

I'm intrigued, though, as using the link I posted and entering Sheerness, as an example, pops up a list of actual climate stations - the ones where daily data isn't easy to come by, but I know they exist, such as the one at East Malling. But then there are others, like the one at Gillingham Football Club, which seems to exist from the 50s up until at least 1981, but there's no sign of it any more - indeed, I can't even see where it would have been!

Google Maps link 

(Gillingham FC is in the middle of a load of houses, as can be seen using the link above).
Leysdown, north Kent
Rob K
11 November 2024 16:58:54

I was careful to pick Faversham, which is better known as Brogdale - it has, of course, been running for donkey's years and is still current.

I'm intrigued, though, as using the link I posted and entering Sheerness, as an example, pops up a list of actual climate stations - the ones where daily data isn't easy to come by, but I know they exist, such as the one at East Malling. But then there are others, like the one at Gillingham Football Club, which seems to exist from the 50s up until at least 1981, but there's no sign of it any more - indeed, I can't even see where it would have been!

Google Maps link 

(Gillingham FC is in the middle of a load of houses, as can be seen using the link above).

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Yes there was a story on Toby Young's AGW denying blog site claiming that the Met Office are inventing data. That's not quite true of course, but I think they should be clearer about which sites are actually generating real data and which aren't. The MO site does say that where stations have shut down they use nearby stations to provide the data, but it doesn't seem very transparent.

Back on the charts and 12Z GFS has a bit ore of a diluted/west-based northerly, but comes very close to a Channel blizzard at 300 hours+... doesn't quite undercut enough though and the mild air wins out.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Retron
11 November 2024 17:12:55

The MO site does say that where stations have shut down they use nearby stations to provide the data, but it doesn't seem very transparent.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Fascinating. I hadn't realised that's what they were doing, and at best it seems inept and at worst deceptive - why pretend you have the data when you don't? It gives a leg-up to those sceptics who dismiss the whole tenet of global warming. (I'll still call it that, as that's what's happening!)


Back on the charts and 12Z GFS has a bit ore of a diluted/west-based northerly, but comes very close to a Channel blizzard at 300 hours+... doesn't quite undercut enough though and the mild air wins out.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Yes, it's flipped back to more of a classic west-based NAO, all-too familiar to most of us! I've only actually seen two op runs over the past few days which managed to have "snow on the ground" down here, so for once I'm not too bothered if this all ends up going the way it usually does (i.e. miss to the east, or a west-based NAO).

If it was a month later, on the other hand... 😁
Leysdown, north Kent

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