WXtemp charts continue to show the advance of freezing weather from Russia by week 2. After week 1 when temps for W Europe not far from norm, much colder in all mountainous regions especially Norway, and Scotland though not freezing also noticeably colder. Mostly dry across Europe in week 1 except Spain, but remarkable switch round in week 2 with all areas except Spain and n Norway wet and often very wet.
GFS Op - after a hiccup today, HP resumes from the SW and is centred close to Britain though to Sat 16th when it begins to pull away to the NW. By Sunday deep cold LP over Sweden plus LP near Biscay fire up the N-lies, becoming strong and directed at Britain Wed 20th. Not lasting, as Hp from Spain is close enough to create a weak ridge of HP over Britain, with W/Nw-lies here while the main N-ly plunge is diverted to E Europe by Tue 26th.
ECM - similar to GFS though the N-lies and associated pptn are augmented Tue 19th/ Wed 20th by the LP being positioned closer, viz. 985mb N Sea
GEM - somewhere between GFS and ECM, producing a twin centre LP, Sweden and N Sea Tue 19th
GEFS - after a bit of a dip, temps recover to mild until Sun 17th when sharply colder in all ens members. Mean of ens runs then stays below norm through to Tue 26th but with much variation, op and control going in different directions e.g. op 7C below on Thu 21st and as much above by Mon 25th while control is the mirror image! Spits of rain now and then until Mon 18th after which often heavy and frequent in the various ens members, esp in SE. Snow row figures in double digits for E Scotland from 17th, reaching 20 at Inverness on 20th.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl