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Rob K
09 November 2024 13:53:13

Well the GFS 6z is about as cold and snowy as a November run gets in the UK.
🥶🥶🥶❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Meanwhile the GEM for the same timeframe goes for 10C 850s on a long SWerly fetch from the Azores. Can't beat a bit of cross-model support!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
09 November 2024 13:57:25
GEFS 06Z were a very mixed bunch. They should all be visible in this Tweet for 19/11. The op run was just about the coldest on this update.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Jiries
09 November 2024 13:59:35

Wouldn’t it be absolutely hilarious though? 
Virtually every single long range analysis chart suggests mild if not very mild weather for winter with low pressure ploughing across the Atlantic - dominant over Greenland and Iceland with an Azores High ridging across mainland Europe. 
Is it time for the law of sod to make an appearance? We could all do with a laugh. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Long range forecast are all useless 100% wrong at all times at all seasons. What about yesterday was supposed to be 20C from the last weekend forecast for that day?  I was protesting against those fake temps, there lot of clouds that won't permit warm 20C here so I was right it just cold week with below 10C maxes, so that very wrong for few days ahead let alone those silly long range forecasts.

Lot of buzzing in the NW mod thread, so at least some actual weather, cold mean lot of sun around at least.  

Last time we had this nearly 2 weeks of gloom as back in Jan 1991 prior to the great wonderful big freeze so i hope this latest gloom to reward us something nice this time.

Gandalf The White
09 November 2024 14:07:05

Long range forecast are all useless 100% wrong at all times at all seasons. What about yesterday was supposed to be 20C from the last weekend forecast for that day?  I was protesting against those fake temps, there lot of clouds that won't permit warm 20C here so I was right it just cold week with below 10C maxes, so that very wrong for few days ahead let alone those silly long range forecasts.

Lot of buzzing in the NW mod thread, so at least some actual weather, cold mean lot of sun around at least.  

Last time we had this nearly 2 weeks of gloom as back in Jan 1991 prior to the great wonderful big freeze so i hope this latest gloom to reward us something nice this time.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


That’s just not true, Jiries.  IIRC a solitary model run showed that as a possibility in one or two favoured spots.  Plus, that wasn’t a long range forecast, it was from one of the usual global model runs.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Brian Gaze
09 November 2024 14:07:46

Wouldn’t it be absolutely hilarious though? 
Virtually every single long range analysis chart suggests mild if not very mild weather for winter with low pressure ploughing across the Atlantic - dominant over Greenland and Iceland with an Azores High ridging across mainland Europe. 
Is it time for the law of sod to make an appearance? We could all do with a laugh. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



Agree. That said, there has been a suspicion that if the "season" is to deliver a wintry spell it could come in November or early December. However, it looks very uncertain to me at the moment.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
White Meadows
09 November 2024 15:30:24
If I was a betting man, I’d say northwesterly dominated from next weekend til December,  a brief dry spell before a Santa brings a hairdryer for everyone for much of December. 
I’d love to be wrong about that however. 
Chunky Pea
09 November 2024 15:48:00
EC is slightly more bullish on cooler snap than yesterday, but still attempts to bring in a more zonal flow by day15, if not earlier. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
CField
09 November 2024 16:24:48
12z looking interesting....I remember 1988 a brief sharp northerly which brought 7 inches of snow to Dover( very local) late November....the rest of the winter you didn't need a sweater.....
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
White Meadows
09 November 2024 18:40:45
ECM also setting the cat among the pigeons this evening ❄️ 
Ally Pally Snowman
09 November 2024 19:15:08
Indeed nice ECM 12z. Snow for many by the end.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
squish
09 November 2024 19:21:49
And JMA!
I called this to a trusted friend in the pub last night….which usually ends up with the models backing down .  But currently ramping up something potentially special for the time of year . 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
David M Porter
09 November 2024 19:52:06

Wouldn’t it be absolutely hilarious though? 
Virtually every single long range analysis chart suggests mild if not very mild weather for winter with low pressure ploughing across the Atlantic - dominant over Greenland and Iceland with an Azores High ridging across mainland Europe. 
Is it time for the law of sod to make an appearance? We could all do with a laugh. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


IIRC, in late 2009 the Met Office predicted that the 2009/10 winter would be a mild one, or at least somewhat milder than the 08/09 winter was. It wasn't until not long before the freeze started just after mid-December that they altered their forecast. They were rather quicker off the mark in mentioning the likelihood of a cold/very cold period commencing in late November the following year, however.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
White Meadows
09 November 2024 20:01:22

IIRC, in late 2009 the Met Office predicted that the 2009/10 winter would be a mild one, or at least somewhat milder than the 08/09 winter was. It wasn't until not long before the freeze started just after mid-December that they altered their forecast. They were rather quicker off the mark in mentioning the likelihood of a cold/very cold period commencing in late November the following year, however.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Indeed. The signs must have been very strong, they were so confident and bullish from at least a week before the cold set in, and all after such a wet and westerly November that year.
Meanwhile, lots of WAA going up to Greenland on ECM 
Hungry Tiger
09 November 2024 21:18:47

Long range forecast are all useless 100% wrong at all times at all seasons. What about yesterday was supposed to be 20C from the last weekend forecast for that day?  I was protesting against those fake temps, there lot of clouds that won't permit warm 20C here so I was right it just cold week with below 10C maxes, so that very wrong for few days ahead let alone those silly long range forecasts.

Lot of buzzing in the NW mod thread, so at least some actual weather, cold mean lot of sun around at least.  

Last time we had this nearly 2 weeks of gloom as back in Jan 1991 prior to the great wonderful big freeze so i hope this latest gloom to reward us something nice this time.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


As far as I know the last dull spell over 2 weeks was January 1996. We had 23 dull days in a row here in Cambridgeshire.  Some places in Kent got 26 dull days in a row. One thing I have noticed though - is that with very few exceptions a dull spell or even a long dull spell nearly always precedes a cold spell.    🙂 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Hungry Tiger
09 November 2024 21:20:42

Yes I've never known a winter look so nailed on to be extremely mild as this one. Would be surprised if it isn't top 5 warmest but we'll see if the weather surprises us.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 


Mild ramping.   😃 😃 . These days I won't ramp on anything. You can't tell with Winters- especially Winters these days.   🙂 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Gandalf The White
09 November 2024 21:53:14

Mild ramping.   😃 😃 . These days I won't ramp on anything. You can't tell with Winters- especially Winters these days.   🙂 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


I was wondering if by error I had stumbled into the Clairvoyance thread….
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


fairweather
09 November 2024 22:58:55

As far as I know the last dull spell over 2 weeks was January 1996. We had 23 dull days in a row here in Cambridgeshire.  Some places in Kent got 26 dull days in a row. One thing I have noticed though - is that with very few exceptions a dull spell or even a long dull spell nearly always precedes a cold spell.    🙂 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


Yes, there have been a few spells like this but most have been forecast, especially 24 hrs before each day! But not this one. From late to mid October they have been forecasting the arrival of a southerly. It is only the last couple of days they have stopped! Since mid October the temperature has been steadily falling from 18C to 9C now with just a minor few upward bumps.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
09 November 2024 23:06:44
Given what the last 15 years have been like the form horse has to be on the mild side. I think it might be statistically similar to the summer in that it was above average because of the cloudy nights - not because of long hot spells. I would go for, and obviously a guess not a forecast, is that there will be a lot of cold drab days like today making it often feel bleak and cold, but not very cold nights and few frosts and little snow south of the Midlands leading it to be above average for temps.. 
S.Essex, 42m ASL
dagspot
09 November 2024 23:37:45
no mention of ‘hairdryers’ its the worst and induces irrational rage. Almost as much as ‘long fetch’ 
Neilston 600ft ASL
nsrobins
10 November 2024 00:32:06

no mention of ‘hairdryers’ its the worst and induces irrational rage. Almost as much as ‘long fetch’ 

Originally Posted by: dagspot 


The only thing I’ll be fetching is my coat 😂😂
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
10 November 2024 07:27:44
WXtemp charts  continue to show the advance of freezing weather from Russia by week 2. After week 1 when temps for W Europe not far from norm, much colder in all mountainous regions especially Norway, and Scotland though not freezing also noticeably colder. Mostly dry across Europe in week 1 except Spain, but remarkable switch round in week 2 with all areas except Spain and n Norway wet and often very wet.

GFS Op - after a hiccup today, HP resumes from the SW and is centred close to Britain though to Sat 16th when it begins to pull away to the NW. By Sunday deep cold LP over Sweden plus LP near Biscay fire up the N-lies, becoming strong and directed at Britain Wed 20th. Not lasting, as Hp from Spain is close enough to create a weak ridge of HP over Britain, with W/Nw-lies here while the main N-ly plunge is diverted to E Europe by Tue 26th.

ECM - similar to GFS though the N-lies and associated pptn are augmented Tue 19th/ Wed 20th by the LP being positioned closer, viz. 985mb N Sea

GEM - somewhere between  GFS and ECM, producing a twin centre LP, Sweden and N Sea Tue 19th

GEFS - after a bit of a dip, temps recover to mild until Sun 17th when sharply colder in all ens members. Mean of ens runs then stays below norm through to Tue 26th but with much variation, op and control going in different directions e.g. op 7C below on Thu 21st and as much above by Mon 25th while control is the mirror image! Spits of rain now and then until Mon 18th after which often heavy and frequent in the various ens members, esp in SE. Snow row figures in double digits for E Scotland from 17th, reaching 20 at Inverness on 20th.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
10 November 2024 10:28:17
Interesting to observe ECM mean zonal winds at 10hpa going for a wider scatter end of the month comparred to say 7 days ago. Some are actually going into reversal. Worth watching how this evolves:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202411090000 
Kingston Upon Thames
Hungry Tiger
10 November 2024 10:38:56

I was wondering if by error I had stumbled into the Clairvoyance thread….

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


  😃 😃 😃 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Ally Pally Snowman
10 November 2024 14:37:06
The GFS 6z has a decent dump of snow for many again. Still a glimmer.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
David M Porter
10 November 2024 15:49:20

Interesting to observe ECM mean zonal winds at 10hpa going for a wider scatter end of the month comparred to say 7 days ago. Some are actually going into reversal. Worth watching how this evolves:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202411090000 

Originally Posted by: Sasa 


Hmmm, could be interesting.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

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