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Brian Gaze
12 November 2024 14:25:55
Stay on topic please. There's plenty in the MO to discuss at the moment. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+1
Jiries
12 November 2024 14:30:38

Love the channel low on the 6z op run, whatever happens will be more interesting weather. Probably fairly windy at times!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


More interesting to see the sun, cold, snow and low night temps, than this current gloom that seem to return today as this same nasty HP returned again.  I hope we won't see any more HP over the top here rest of the winter, this block sun, snow, cold temps.  
Rob K
12 November 2024 14:34:18

Nothing out of ordinary.
Possibly coldish down south 7c, maybe a frost, Gosh.

Up north some sleet, snow on hills. Normal service of previous years.

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 


That's very much not "normal service of previous years", not in November anyway. And of course the models show something rather colder than that.

FWIW the GFS 6Z det run has 12cm of snow in my southern location, and overnight lows of -7C with highs close to or below freezing across the south for a few days.

Certainly some exciting options on the table - yesterdays mostly northerly-northeasterly flow would have been cold but fairly benign in the south. Today's deep lows cropping up over the country could lead to surprise snowfalls just about anywhere, although I suspect the south would miss out at this time of year unless everything aligned perfectly.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
White Meadows
12 November 2024 14:56:27
14:00hrs Met update has watered down (quite literally) any chance for snow away from the far north next week. Subtle amends to the wording but now a chance of ‘organised rain’ further south. 
Boooooooo…
+1
Saint Snow
12 November 2024 15:15:22

14:00hrs Met update has watered down (quite literally) any chance for snow away from the far north next week. Subtle amends to the wording but now a chance of ‘organised rain’ further south. 
Boooooooo…

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 




"Less certainty for the south but even here there is a chance of some more organised rain, and potentially some hill snow."

Is what they actually say.

It's November. Yes, some GEFS perts have shown 2010'eque charts, but the majority have indicated a colder spell with a northerly flow, which will last several days and increase snow risk to hills, especially in the north.

I feel that people have been so starved of a notable winter spell and desperate for another Dec 09 or 10 (I know I am!) that there's a little bit of premature excitement.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Brian Gaze
12 November 2024 15:26:54

"Less certainty for the south but even here there is a chance of some more organised rain, and potentially some hill snow."

Is what they actually say.

It's November. Yes, some GEFS perts have shown 2010'eque charts, but the majority have indicated a colder spell with a northerly flow, which will last several days and increase snow risk to hills, especially in the north.

I feel that people have been so starved of a notable winter spell and desperate for another Dec 09 or 10 (I know I am!) that there's a little bit of premature excitement.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 




That's a good summary IMO. The majority (not all) of model runs have shown marginal conditions in the southern half of the UK, with a greater risk of snow in the north. Exactly what you'd expect in this type of set-up and particularly at this time of the year. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+3
fairweather
12 November 2024 15:57:02
Shame it's not later in the year or early next year after some sea and ground cooling. It's not impossible it might snow in the South, but unlikely. I'm pretty sure if it did it wouldn't settle. In recent years patterns tend to stick around longer whatever the season so this could be the start of a trend.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Retron
12 November 2024 16:28:00
A ferocious low on Tuesday on the 12z GFS op... good job it's a week away, and I certainly won't shed any tears if it ends up much weaker and/or further south come the time!
There's a further surge of 70+ gusts over East Anglia a bit later as the low pulls away.
UserPostedImage
Leysdown, north Kent
Heavy Weather 2013
12 November 2024 16:29:24
My god GFS synoptically at least is a thing of complete beauty.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Brian Gaze
12 November 2024 16:33:35
I reckon this would be a historic storm.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+2
idj20
12 November 2024 16:45:19
To reiterate my post from this morning and looking at the latest GFS output, I think our primary concern should be the possible widespread gales and rain for this time next week, never mind getting excited over slim chances of some marginal wet sleet over high ground. I still hope for some adjustments and downgrades, especially as UKMO isn't buying into it just yet.  
Folkestone Harbour. 
doctormog
12 November 2024 16:45:22
The fact that it is even in the model output is reason enough to keep an eye on the various potential outcomes next week. The synoptics suggest there is the possibility of some interesting weather around. With blocking over Greenland and southerly tracking lows running in to cold air it could lead to some lively conditions. It could be quite stormy and will feel notably colder than it has been. Whether there is much in the way of wintriness remains to be determined.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
Retron
12 November 2024 16:53:51
There's definitely potential for some headlines from all this - MetO doesn't look especially vicious at first glance, but the secondary deepens from around 1010 to 995 in just 12 hours (156 to 168), and the next frame would show it deepening further.

It's the classic scenario we've seen so many times... a little low engages the jet, gets thrown out and deepens explosively.

Definitely one to keep an eye on for us SE folks (at the least), even if northern eyes are on the potential snow instead!
Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
12 November 2024 17:08:52
After the snow GFS 12z has +15c 850s widely.  With date records under threat. A bonkers run
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Taylor1740
12 November 2024 17:24:02

After the snow GFS 12z has +15c 850s widely.  With date records under threat. A bonkers run

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Completely bonkers, there's absolutely no way anything close to that is going to verify.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
scillydave
12 November 2024 18:03:52

I reckon this would be a historic storm.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Absolutely - potential gor a North Sea storm surge as well which coming on the Spring tides would not be good.
An 'interesting' patch of weather coming up any way you cut it.
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
White Meadows
12 November 2024 18:08:20
Long ranger text update from Met office is much more attractive this afternoon. It signals a settling down into the festive period with cold interludes for most if not all. 
Let’s get the muck out of the way next week and look forward to some decent sunny conditions with a nice fat 1065mb high smack bang over the UK.
Chunky Pea
12 November 2024 18:18:28

I reckon this would be a historic storm.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Has me down for a blizzard. That would certainly be interesting after what has been a record breakingly warm and dry November so far. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
doctormog
12 November 2024 18:25:01
The GFS 12z op run seems to be quite in line with the 12z t850hPa ensemble mean here for much of the run but deviates at the end. Further south the deviation is more marked and sooner, indicting the uncertainty associated with the low pressure system moving into the cold air. There’s a lot to be determined given the time scales involved.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
nsrobins
12 November 2024 18:37:18

The GFS 12z op run seems to be quite in line with the 12z t850hPa ensemble mean here for much of the run but deviates at the end. Further south the deviation is more marked and sooner, indicting the uncertainty associated with the low pressure system moving into the cold air. There’s a lot to be determined given the time scales involved.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


But I thought GFS shows +15 uppers? Ah, from +300hrs. And oh, one DET solution. And hey, without any support no doubt and extremely unlikely to verify. But I’m allowed to talk about it, is that correct? 😂😂😉
It’s going to be a very long winter, on here at least lol.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+2
doctormog
12 November 2024 18:38:33

But I thought GFS shows +15 uppers? Ah, from +300hrs. And oh, one DET solution. And hey, without any support no doubt and extremely unlikely to verify. But I’m allowed to talk about it, is that correct? 😂😂😉
It’s going to be a very long winter, on here at least lol.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Nailed it. 🤣
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Ally Pally Snowman
12 November 2024 18:59:09
Plenty of snow on the ECM 12z. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
12 November 2024 19:00:44

But I thought GFS shows +15 uppers? Ah, from +300hrs. And oh, one DET solution. And hey, without any support no doubt and extremely unlikely to verify. But I’m allowed to talk about it, is that correct? 😂😂😉
It’s going to be a very long winter, on here at least lol.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


I didn't say it would verify,  just thought it was an interesting run to go from low level snow in southern England to 850s above the July average. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+2
Ally Pally Snowman
12 November 2024 19:02:15
Blocking tastic on the ECM 12z. And not an SSW in sight!
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=2&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Gandalf The White
12 November 2024 19:05:50

After the snow GFS 12z has +15c 850s widely.  With date records under threat. A bonkers run

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Predictably the op is a genuine outlier for 850 hPa temperatures when it brings in that mild air mass, pretty much unsupported across other measures as well (500hPa temp, height of 0c isotherm, 2m temp).
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1

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