As you were. Carrot dangling confirmed.

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 

I'm trying to work out if this is trolling or just a lack of understanding. 

Brian's animation highlights the possibilities in the current output nicely and to dismiss it as you do is just simply wrong. 

Of course we have the usual caveats but there is some very interesting output for next week, all the moreso when it follows a significantly less interesting period of weather.

Cool, unsettled and potentially wintry sums up next week's outlook at present. It could end up just being the first two parts of course but time will tell.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

GFS 6Z control run shows how things can rapidly dissolve back to a flat zonal pattern.
And a few runs eg 26 never even get the cold air into the south as high pressure lobes across into France. Seems to be a growing trend to watch, HP being more dominant across the south and preventing the trough digging south.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I’ve noticed a few runs raise heights over Iberia. Once this happens, it’s usually game over in the longer term for UK cold. 
However, currently the potential is very strong for some cold and wintry weather, even if it doesn’t last all that long.  

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

I've seen that too and given the comparisons with 1988 or 1989 (I can't remember which) that is something of a concern. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Is a concern rising like milk in a saucepan, happened last year at this stage too ( autumn end) and resulted in winter being over...

Originally Posted by: CField 

Not the place for political discussions I know, but I wonder if what Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves deciding to do away wih automatic winter fuel payments for pensioners this year has had anything to do with this!

Of course, winter doesn't not start and end in November, but the irony of a early cold spell as now indicated by the models would not be lost on me.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

The fascinating synoptics continue - the 12z MetO, GFS and GEM all serve up a prolonged spell with cold air close by or over the UK, and lows bumping into it as they zip eastwards to the south, or over the south. It's one of those self-reinforcing patterns too, something we've seen oh so rarely in winter in recent decades.

It looks like winter will arrive a couple of weeks early this year! 😁

Originally Posted by: Retron 

The 12z ECM looks fantastic for cold fans, widespread snow even down here. Sample charts:
T+144 

T+204 

(And yes, that site has the 12z run before the traditional older sites do!)

Originally Posted by: Retron 

The fascinating synoptics continue - the 12z MetO, GFS and GEM all serve up a prolonged spell with cold air close by or over the UK, and lows bumping into it as they zip eastwards to the south, or over the south. It's one of those self-reinforcing patterns too, something we've seen oh so rarely in winter in recent decades.

It looks like winter will arrive a couple of weeks early this year! 😁

Originally Posted by: Retron 

November 1995 produced a snow event in the south, gave a couple of inches through the morning. By 3pm it had all but melted and turned slushy, despite full cloud cover. That December turned into a very cold one too. Cold but mostly dry down here. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows