WX temp charts are a repeat of yesterday -
cold weather firming up over C Europe as the area of freezing weather over N Russia extends its influence. In week 1, freezing for small patches of mountainous areas as far S as the Balkans; in week 2 noticeably colder also across N Europe including Britain, with Scandinavia and Scotland also set for a freeze. The rainfall pattern not changing much, either:
Week 1, some pptn for N Atlantic including Britain, bits and pieces elsewhere; in week 2 really heavy rain for, France, and the low countries though the area of pptn has moved N so that Britain is no longer on the fringe of this and looks quite wet.
GFS Op - HP over Britain or to the west of it, though GFS unlike FAX doesn't show the embedded front moving S-wards later today. From Sun 17th the HP collapses and N-lies set in under the influence of LP 975 mb Denmark. Secondary LPs arise where the N-lies interact with a warm Atlantic, though not as dramatic as shown yesterday; one now running along the Channel to Dover 985mb Thu 21st, and then HP re-asserts itself from France (briefly milder SW-lies before back to cold) before an elongated W-E trough lies across Scotland 990mb Tue 26th, and another Channel runner 985b Thu 28th.
ECM - Similar to GFS at first then the Channel LP arrives a day earlier, i.e. Wed 20th, and then moves N-wards up the N Sea, instead of trundling on to Poland, thus in this model refreshing the strong N-lies (no sign of milder SW-lies)
GEM - produces a secondary in the N Sea Wed 20th at the same time as a Channel runner. These merge and move S-wards into France so giving an E-ly spell of weather from Fri 22nd.
GEFS - temps dipping to about 6C below norm for a week from Mon 18th but then (with less ens agreement than yesterday) the mean recovers to norm (sooner in the SW) and stays there. A lot of rain from Sun 17th especially at first in the S, less in the N (but snow for higher ground in the N, even an outside chance for hills in the S).
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl