Remove ads from site

doctormog
13 November 2024 12:33:13

As you were. Carrot dangling confirmed.

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 


I'm trying to work out if this is trolling or just a lack of understanding. 

Brian's animation highlights the possibilities in the current output nicely and to dismiss it as you do is just simply wrong. 

Of course we have the usual caveats but there is some very interesting output for next week, all the moreso when it follows a significantly less interesting period of weather.

Cool, unsettled and potentially wintry sums up next week's outlook at present. It could end up just being the first two parts of course but time will tell.
ballamar
13 November 2024 12:35:10
If you are expecting widespread ice days and blanket snow then you will be disappointed. If you would enjoy a heavy wet snow event then this should keep your interest up - as ever track of lows will be key and associated dew points. There is definitely potential next week. Imagine somewhere in the midlands will get a decent dump, others probably determined by when it falls!
Joe Bloggs
13 November 2024 12:46:23

I'm trying to work out if this is trolling or just a lack of understanding. 

Brian's animation highlights the possibilities in the current output nicely and to dismiss it as you do is just simply wrong. 

Of course we have the usual caveats but there is some very interesting output for next week, all the moreso when it follows a significantly less interesting period of weather.

Cool, unsettled and potentially wintry sums up next week's outlook at present. It could end up just being the first two parts of course but time will tell.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Of course it’s trolling! 🤣🤣🤣
Another one for my hide list. 
Fully agree with your last paragraph. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

StoneCroze
13 November 2024 13:05:18
I'm just glad the wind values progged for here have been revised down. I don't like 75 Kt gusts. 
Keeps me awake at night as the house shakes!!
Alderney, Channel Islands. (previously known as Beaufort)
Taylor1740
13 November 2024 13:37:07
Thomas S talking down the prospects for cold weather for next week. 'nothing unusual for the time of year but might be some wintry showers in the NE' he said.
I disagree for what it's worth. Based on the MO currently I think there is potential for something a bit more than that.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Joe Bloggs
13 November 2024 13:44:19
Good to see the 6z ECM is now available out to T +144 on wetter. A nice addition. 
The Atlantic/Greenland block is so so impressive. Even if we don’t achieve snow on a widespread basis, the synoptic pattern is a sight to behold.
Personally, I’d be expecting snow to relatively modest levels in Scotland by now, but we’ll see how things progress.  
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU06_144_1.png 
I don’t know about anyone else, but over the past few winters, and certainly living in a city centre location, my expectations are so much less, I can enjoy these chases with much less stress involved. 
I enjoy the Netweather model thread, some really good knowledge in there, despite the major mood swings. This place could be a decent alternative if there was just that little more activity and analysis.:) 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Brian Gaze
13 November 2024 14:23:20
MOGREPS-G looks solid out until 21/11, though interesting to see a few runs bringing in much milder air.

UserPostedImage

Looks like they are bringing in a small area of low pressure.

UserPostedImage

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Rob K
13 November 2024 14:56:30
GFS 6Z control run shows how things can rapidly dissolve back to a flat zonal pattern.
And a few runs eg 26 never even get the cold air into the south as high pressure lobes across into France. Seems to be a growing trend to watch, HP being more dominant across the south and preventing the trough digging south.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Joe Bloggs
13 November 2024 15:09:50

GFS 6Z control run shows how things can rapidly dissolve back to a flat zonal pattern.
And a few runs eg 26 never even get the cold air into the south as high pressure lobes across into France. Seems to be a growing trend to watch, HP being more dominant across the south and preventing the trough digging south.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I’ve noticed a few runs raise heights over Iberia. Once this happens, it’s usually game over in the longer term for UK cold. 
However, currently the potential is very strong for some cold and wintry weather, even if it doesn’t last all that long.  

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Brian Gaze
13 November 2024 15:41:06

I’ve noticed a few runs raise heights over Iberia. Once this happens, it’s usually game over in the longer term for UK cold. 
However, currently the potential is very strong for some cold and wintry weather, even if it doesn’t last all that long.  

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



I've seen that too and given the comparisons with 1988 or 1989 (I can't remember which) that is something of a concern. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Retron
13 November 2024 15:48:02
Interesting to see the 12z ICON brings snow across a swathe of England running NW to SE via the Midlands - that model is very conservative when it comes to "snow on the ground", I've found.

It's the result of a complex low moving over and around the UK, rather than the clean feed that it showed in its 0z output. Marginal, of course, but good to see nonetheless!

NB, you'll have to go to Meteociel to see the snow charts, but here's the TWO view of SLP - as others have noted, synoptically it's superb - if you're a cold fan!

UserPostedImage
Leysdown, north Kent
CField
13 November 2024 15:53:52

I've seen that too and given the comparisons with 1988 or 1989 (I can't remember which) that is something of a concern. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Is a concern rising like milk in a saucepan, happened last year at this stage too ( autumn end) and resulted in winter being over...
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Brian Gaze
13 November 2024 16:15:39

Is a concern rising like milk in a saucepan, happened last year at this stage too ( autumn end) and resulted in winter being over...

Originally Posted by: CField 



Of course there is no scientific reason to say that a pattern some of the medium range models are hinting at in 10 days time will either be correct or set the theme for the coming winter. However, we have seen higher pressure to the south (regardless of the terms and technical jargon attached to it) scuppering the prospects for "proper" cold spells so often in recent decades that it is a consideration. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Retron
13 November 2024 17:00:28
The fascinating synoptics continue - the 12z MetO, GFS and GEM all serve up a prolonged spell with cold air close by or over the UK, and lows bumping into it as they zip eastwards to the south, or over the south. It's one of those self-reinforcing patterns too, something we've seen oh so rarely in winter in recent decades.

It looks like winter will arrive a couple of weeks early this year! 😁
Leysdown, north Kent
fairweather
13 November 2024 17:12:59

Not the place for political discussions I know, but I wonder if what Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves deciding to do away wih automatic winter fuel payments for pensioners this year has had anything to do with this!

Of course, winter doesn't not start and end in November, but the irony of a early cold spell as now indicated by the models would not be lost on me.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


We didn't get it till later than this I don't think and the majority of us poor old pensioners would prefer it spent on the NHS!
S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
13 November 2024 17:22:04
An air frost in November would be noteworthy in itself. I would be happy with a clear frosty winter - not had one many years.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Brian Gaze
13 November 2024 18:06:19

The fascinating synoptics continue - the 12z MetO, GFS and GEM all serve up a prolonged spell with cold air close by or over the UK, and lows bumping into it as they zip eastwards to the south, or over the south. It's one of those self-reinforcing patterns too, something we've seen oh so rarely in winter in recent decades.

It looks like winter will arrive a couple of weeks early this year! 😁

Originally Posted by: Retron 



The 12Z data so far looks like an "upgrade" for cold weather fans. The GFS is interesting in that it (at a glance cause I don't have much time) appears to serve up a number of marginal rain - snow events with the jet stream displaced south for a long period.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Retron
13 November 2024 18:26:21
The 12z ECM looks fantastic for cold fans, widespread snow even down here. Sample charts:
T+144 

T+204 

(And yes, that site has the 12z run before the traditional older sites do!)
Leysdown, north Kent
Joe Bloggs
13 November 2024 18:40:02
Yes, 12z ECM det run is notably cold and wintry. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Chunky Pea
13 November 2024 18:46:14

The 12z ECM looks fantastic for cold fans, widespread snow even down here. Sample charts:
T+144 

T+204 

(And yes, that site has the 12z run before the traditional older sites do!)

Originally Posted by: Retron 


The -10c line is pulling away too far north though. A sleety messy mess is all I'm seeing. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Chunky Pea
13 November 2024 18:50:20
I'd prefer the GFS12z solution. We have lows 'borrowing' some warmer air to the west to deepen their depth to help bring in wilder weather, and potentially some occluded snow events at times. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
White Meadows
13 November 2024 19:52:01
ECM ensembles not too shabby:
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 
It will feel seasonal. Translates to 5c daytime maxes for nearly a week:
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=202&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 
BUT without some hefty and continued upgrades most of us are looking at wet, not white. 
Shame in this country when the moisture is there the necessary cold rarely is to go with it.
David M Porter
13 November 2024 20:14:33

The fascinating synoptics continue - the 12z MetO, GFS and GEM all serve up a prolonged spell with cold air close by or over the UK, and lows bumping into it as they zip eastwards to the south, or over the south. It's one of those self-reinforcing patterns too, something we've seen oh so rarely in winter in recent decades.

It looks like winter will arrive a couple of weeks early this year! 😁

Originally Posted by: Retron 


If everything pans out as the models indicate, winter will arrive here around a week earlier than happened in 2010. The first snow of the late Nov/Dec 2010 freeze arrived on the night of Friday 26th November IIRC. This was three weeks earlier than when mid-Dec 2009 to mid-January 2010 freeze commenced, which was pretty notable in itself as there have been very few Novembers in the last 30 years or so which have produced any snow in my neck of the woods.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
White Meadows
13 November 2024 20:22:06
November 1995 produced a snow event in the south, gave a couple of inches through the morning. By 3pm it had all but melted and turned slushy, despite full cloud cover. That December turned into a very cold one too. Cold but mostly dry down here. 
Chunky Pea
13 November 2024 20:34:53

November 1995 produced a snow event in the south, gave a couple of inches through the morning. By 3pm it had all but melted and turned slushy, despite full cloud cover. That December turned into a very cold one too. Cold but mostly dry down here. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


There was a fair bit of snow in Nov 2017 if I remember correct, which constantly melted and refroze to form one of the most horrific and prolonged black ice episodes I've ever seen.  An ugly mess that I see happening again this time around. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022

Remove ads from site

Ads