WX charts in week 1 show a cold Europe with freezing conditions in mountainous areas including Scotland, though the bulk of the freezing weather has withdrawn to Scandinavia and N Russia, In week 2 these areas get colder and expand SE-wards again, coming up against milder air from the south which reaches England (not Scotland), France and Germany. PPtn for much of Europe (exc Spain) in both weeks, week 1 heaviest along the Channel and the Low Countries, week 2 further south for S France and the Alps.
GFS Op 0z - the initial N-lies generated by the LP over Scandinavia stay over the N Sea until Tue 19th when a secondary LP runs up the Channel to 990mb Holland and drags them more directly over Britain, affecting especially eastern regions. There is then a repeat on Thu 21st with an LP crossing N France 985mb. Another brief Channel runner on Sat 23rd precedes an Atlantic depression as the Scandinavian LP withdraws. The Atlantic LP crosses to Scandinavia with another burst of N-lies (one day only) Tue 26th. After a brief ridge of HP yet another Atlantic LP moves in 995mb S Ireland Sat 30th, interacting with the semi-permanent LP in Scandinavia for a NE-ly flow with gales for SE England Sun 1st. The final chart Tue 3rd has HP 1045mb Brittany calming the weather down for Europe generally.
A stormy and cold couple of weeks looking likely to produce snowfalls for northern hills and for lower ground in the NE.
ECM - rather different from Thu 21st as the original Channel runner form Tue 19th settles 965mb Baltic keeping N'lies down the N Sea coast, milder in the far W, and no secondary crossing N France. Then instead of a new LP from the SW, it arrives from the NW and is predicted 965mb Scottish borders Sun 24th with cold and stormy conditions for all except the far south. As this moves away, it is followed by HP over Scotland 1025mb Wed 27th with some weak NE-lies left over SE England,
GEM - closer to ECM with stormy conditions for Scotland on the 24th (950mb Clyde). The HP following is slower to arrive, delayed by a secondary LP 985mb running up the Channel to join the main LP as it moves NE-ward
GEFS - cold or very cold soon setting in, occasional pulses of rain or snow, and lasting until Sat 23rd when abruptly milder with much heavy rain, Some wide variation in ens members from this point but the tendency is for temps back to norm and rain slowly diminishing through to Tue 3rd. (But the op run stays much colder in the N). Snow row figures intermittently high almost anywhere until 23rd, but then much lower; however not a great deal of pptn to go with that except in NE England.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl