WX temps show a degree or two below norm for most of NW Europe this week, and although the bloc of cold air over Russia and the east firms up in week 2 , it doesn't get to the far west i.e. Spain, France and Britain (exc N Scotland which does get a taste of freezing). Rain, snow in the north?, for Atlantic coasts (and some in the balkans) in week 1, then a lot more for Britain, France and Germany in week 2.
GFS Op 0z - has retreated from its ultra-cold predictions of a week ago. The N-lies set in on Sun 17th but mainly down the N Sea, not affecting W Britain, though they are souped up by a Channel runner reaching Dover 1000mb Tue 19th and another LP across N France 990mb Thu 21st. But all is cleared away by LP approaching from the SW and deepening markedly 960mb W Ireland Mon 25th, milder but not ultra-mild. This fills and slowly drifts across Britain to reach C Europe Sun 1st leaving a narrow ridge for HP behind.
ECM - the channel runner from the 19th merges with the main LP, 970mb Denmark Wed 20th ensuring a more consistent run of N-lies but even so the Atlantic revives from the SW Mon 25th, more tentatively than shown on GFS
GEM - resembles ECM. If anything the early N-lies on Sun 17th are held further east
GEFS - in the S, cold (5C below norm) 17th - 23rd with a mild blip coinciding with heavy rain on Tue 19th. Heavy rain sets in later than shown yesterday, after Sat 23rd (but earlier in far SW), with the mean abruptly recovering to norm though conceals ens members from 5C below (incl control) to 10C above (incl op). Variation in the N is that the temp recovers to mean more slowly (very slowly in far N), and rain is less heavy at that time.
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Chichester 12m asl