theweatheroutlook

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Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
14 November 2024 07:07:04
Its early but there is alot of consistency. Monday looks like a snow event for some. We don't know exactly where yet; but it looks like some widespread snow for lower levels somewhere. Models currently favour midlands into southern parts of Yorkshire, but further north or south cannot be ruled out.
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Ally Pally Snowman
14 November 2024 07:19:41
The North buried on this mornings GFS,  ECM is  similar.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=25&run=0&time=132&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=12#mapref 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
14 November 2024 07:26:40
Ecm has 8 inches Tuesday in the Sheffield area,  widespread 4 inches for the North. Significant for November. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
14 November 2024 07:37:32
There is definitely snow potential. But given the timescales, the marginality and the inter-run variability I would say it is too early to suggest what locations are likely to see snow, if any populated regions might.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Tim A
14 November 2024 08:30:19
Would love the GFS or ECM charts to come off but as Doc says it's too early. Would be amazed if the track was nailed now, almost certain to be different, even 48 hours out I wouldn't be certain. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
14 November 2024 08:38:01

Would love the GFS or ECM charts to come off but as Doc says it's too early. Would be amazed if the track was nailed now, almost certain to be different, even 48 hours out I wouldn't be certain. 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 


Yes we don't know where the snow is going to be. But the extreme scenarios of the low passing south of the south coast (or not developing at all) or blowing up so large nowhere south or lower than Braemar gets anything are probably unlikely. We probably won't have a good idea until Sunday to be honest.

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Brian Gaze
14 November 2024 08:40:53
GFS has a double whammy next week. The second disturbance currently looks more interesting for the southern contingent, but of course they will likely take different tracks to what is currently modelled, if they develop at all.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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+1
nsrobins
14 November 2024 08:41:53

Would love the GFS or ECM charts to come off but as Doc says it's too early. Would be amazed if the track was nailed now, almost certain to be different, even 48 hours out I wouldn't be certain. 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 


This is a decent summary. The evidence of past events suggest a southward correction with a shallower shortwave is more likely than a deeper low and hence more northerly vector. The system last December corrected so far south in the 48hrs up to 0hrs that the forecast snow for the Midlands south ended up in France.
It will be interesting to see how this develops in the 120hrs left to refine the detail - and that is a very long time even for the best medium term modelling.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
bowser
14 November 2024 08:57:29

Yes we don't know where the snow is going to be. But the extreme scenarios of the low passing south of the south coast (or not developing at all) or blowing up so large nowhere south or lower than Braemar gets anything are probably unlikely. We probably won't have a good idea until Sunday to be honest.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Agree. Expecting inland aberdeenshire to get a decent shot at moderate accumulations. But near the north coast less so - the sea is still relatively warm. 
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
15 November 2024 18:13:51
Think we are starting to close in on the most likely location for the snow on Monday. North midlands and N England seems most likely.
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
dagspot
15 November 2024 19:01:10
BBC Scotland weather guy says whole system on Monday 50 miles or so further south most likely and prob miss most of Scotland. A high ground affair with ‘rain sleet and some snow’ 
Neilston 600ft ASL
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
15 November 2024 23:56:01
https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/nmmuk-24-72-0.png?15-23 
Short res models starting to see this.
My gut is telling me the MetOffice warning is too far north. Northern Ireland, the Northern Midlands, the far NE of Wales and southern parts of Northern England seem to me to be best placed to get the most out of this event particularly as I think its more likely the LP will be further south than further north than showing atm.
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Tim A
16 November 2024 09:04:35
If anyone hits the jackpot then the cold spell will be quite decent as most of the snow should stick around for a few days. That would be memorable for November.

I would like to see it a bit further South as pretty sure that whilst there is usually a trend to head South in the 3-5 day period prior to the event , on the day itself I can recall lots of situations where the low is further north than forecast.
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
doctormog
16 November 2024 09:54:51
There still seems to be a lot of uncertainty over the track low pressure on Monday night. The 06z GFS op run has it and the associated snow risk further south, in a band across from North Wales eastwards.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Tim A
16 November 2024 11:11:52
Whereas UKMO 6z has it much further North.

https://modeles14.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo/runs/2024111606/ukmohd_uk1-1-63-0.png?16-10 


Lots of swings to go and likely high ground needed too, so far from simple forecasting. 
Met office App for here has been rapidly swinging , yesterday showed a high here of 10c for Monday, now down to 4c with some heavy snow symbols in the evening. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
doctormog
16 November 2024 11:16:13

Whereas UKMO 6z has it much further North.

https://modeles14.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo/runs/2024111606/ukmohd_uk1-1-63-0.png?16-10 


Lots of swings to go and likely high ground needed too, so far from simple forecasting. 
Met office App for here has been rapidly swinging , yesterday showed a high here of 10c for Monday, now down to 4c with some heavy snow symbols in the evening. 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 


Yes, I would expect the details to change quite a lot even if the overall pattern doesn’t and it could have significant impacts on the weather experienced. A tricky forecasting situation.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
speckledjim
16 November 2024 11:51:35

Whereas UKMO 6z has it much further North.

https://modeles14.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo/runs/2024111606/ukmohd_uk1-1-63-0.png?16-10 


Lots of swings to go and likely high ground needed too, so far from simple forecasting. 
Met office App for here has been rapidly swinging , yesterday showed a high here of 10c for Monday, now down to 4c with some heavy snow symbols in the evening. 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 


Still got just rain for me
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
dagspot
16 November 2024 13:34:26
Tiny bit further North on some of the graphics.  Snow symbols back for Glasgow level on BBC App
Neilston 600ft ASL
dagspot
16 November 2024 15:06:51
light dusting now on all the northern /highland webcams
Neilston 600ft ASL
Tim A
16 November 2024 19:10:05
Think good tactic for the Met Office to leave the warning update for today.  Trend to push things South on many models but UKV and UKMO not interested and their output matches the warning area. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
16 November 2024 21:47:07
The sweet spot will be, I recon the southern most parts of N England
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
+1
Tim A
17 November 2024 06:17:00
Yes you are probably right Q , seems a little clearer this morning, UKV and UKMO still take the snow the most North but the gap with other models is now smaller.  
This is a crazy UKV snow depth chart as it's usually so conservative. 
UserPostedImage

  Other models generally show up to 15cm in the sweet spot. 
I would expect the current Met Office warning needs bringing South to at least Sheffield and expanding out of the Pennines as there is a risk that some lower levels could get hit. 
Tuesday morning could be tricky. 




Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
17 November 2024 06:25:16

Yes you are probably right Q , seems a little clearer this morning, UKV and UKMO still take the snow the most North but the gap with other models is now smaller.  
This is a crazy UKV snow depth chart as it's usually so conservative. 
UserPostedImage

  Other models generally show up to 15cm in the sweet spot. 
I would expect the current Met Office warning needs bringing South to at least Sheffield and expanding out of the Pennines as there is a risk that some lower levels could get hit. 
Tuesday morning could be tricky. 



Originally Posted by: Tim A 


That southern edge is going to be tricky, because potentially that's where the most snow could be. We could potentially be looking at a situation where inches of lying snow and rain are separated by 20 miles.

Another factor is the curl of the occluded front as the LP moves out to sea. Even though the main precip is done by, say 4am, the occluded front bends back round and we also start to get the lake effect. There is a chance that we get some really heavy snow off that of the more convective type.
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
17 November 2024 06:42:07
This event is different from similar ones that have been dissapointing last year, I note that the freezing level starts off alot lower so evap cooling needs to do less of the work.
The baseline freezing level for most of southern N England is 400-600m, so evap cooling only needs to bring it down by 100-300m, and it does that easily. The nice thing about this, is that its not really marginal in terms of how cold it needs to be provided you are on the northern side of that steep temperature gradient.
It bodes well for lying snow, we aren't talking overly mushy snow that struggles to settle. We should get settling quite rapidly I would have thought, maybe only an hour of melting at lower levels before it readily lies as the freezing level comes well below 300m.
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Tim A
17 November 2024 06:49:00
Not sure if there will be a sort of rain shadow  with lighter precipitation in the Vale of York that might scupper things.  It seems to look more promising than previous events though with many models showing a covering . 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 

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