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Brian Gaze
17 November 2024 10:56:16
New thread. Plenty of interest in the models at the moment.

ECM ENS more favourable for a continuation of cold weather than GEFS. Even in London the mild push is less clear.

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+3
Rob K
17 November 2024 12:00:45
I 
6Z Arpege brings the snow risk as far south as me on Tuesday as the low clears through - I wouldn’t expect to see anything settling but would be nice to see falling snow in November as well as April this year!
6Z GFS brings further chance of snow later in the week and then after a milder interlude it cools down again.
Snow modelled to be lying over higher parts of the north for a week from Tuesday. That’s not “standard fare” for November. 

Edit: 6Z Arome has graupel hatching down here by the end of the run at 10am Tuesday with some heavy precipitation. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Hippydave
17 November 2024 12:18:07
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Quite a fun little chart although the SE lying snow relies on a near perfect hit from a little feature and ECM, GEM, Arpege and ICON all say 'no' to that crossing the far south, with only GFS agreeing with the UKMO/UKV take on things. (Op wise anyway, I assume there would be a few different options in the ens at that range). 
The UKV has though made the lying snow from Monday/Tuesdays feature more extensive from when I looked a few days back although I think it's still a touch further north than some of the output. 
Longer term as Rob mentions above, the GFS op cools back down again and ends with cold air in place and lows sliding/disrupting close to the SW of the UK. 
A more interesting end to November and start of winter than we get some years at least, although the above chart not withstanding I'm not expecting much more than the chance of a few crisp days and overnight frosts down here next week.  Longer term is still up for grabs though, with a reasonable chance of chilly/cold weather either persisting or re-establishing. 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Windy Willow
17 November 2024 12:26:07
I'm just outside the yellow warned area for Monday and Tuesday so maybe I'll get lucky, which is much more than I would have been if we were still located in NW Kent!
It's already feeling a lot cooler than I recall experiencing for a good while, at this time of year, being in a new location and to be honest I am enjoying every minute. Just so much happier that this home is a lot warmer and better insulated!
I'll definitely be lamp post watching come Monday evening 😁
South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

Don't feed the Trolls!! When starved of attention they return to their dark caves or the dark recesses of bridges and will turn back to stone, silent again!
Saint Snow
17 November 2024 14:17:31

UserPostedImage

Quite a fun little chart although the SE lying snow relies on a near perfect hit from a little feature and ECM, GEM, Arpege and ICON all say 'no' to that crossing the far south, with only GFS agreeing with the UKMO/UKV take on things. (Op wise anyway, I assume there would be a few different options in the ens at that range). 
The UKV has though made the lying snow from Monday/Tuesdays feature more extensive from when I looked a few days back although I think it's still a touch further north than some of the output. 
Longer term as Rob mentions above, the GFS op cools back down again and ends with cold air in place and lows sliding/disrupting close to the SW of the UK. 
A more interesting end to November and start of winter than we get some years at least, although the above chart not withstanding I'm not expecting much more than the chance of a few crisp days and overnight frosts down here next week.  Longer term is still up for grabs though, with a reasonable chance of chilly/cold weather either persisting or re-establishing. 

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 




MBY is under that little patch in Merseyside 😆 

I'm not expecting lying snow (but would be nice)

Martin
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Saint Snow
17 November 2024 14:47:56
That low next weekend (on the GFS 6z) looks vicious as it approaches, although it then fills it somewhat as it reaches the UK.

It does signal a wet warm-up, though.

Would love all that energy to slip to the south of us and the block to prevail.

Saying that, the Greenland High does then reassert itself a few days later.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+1
Viking3
17 November 2024 15:14:55
Just for fun, but the Met Office app "Lowest possible temperature" for Braemar is currently -18C next Friday 22nd, up from -21C on yesterday's early evening runs. At least one of their MOGREPS members must be going for it!
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gfjs69wkh#?date=2024-11-22 
Keith
Aboyne, Aberdeenshire
135m asl
Brian Gaze
17 November 2024 15:26:50

Just for fun, but the Met Office app "Lowest possible temperature" for Braemar is currently -18C next Friday 22nd, up from -21C on yesterday's early evening runs. At least one of their MOGREPS members must be going for it!
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gfjs69wkh#?date=2024-11-22 

Originally Posted by: Viking3 



Looks like there's a -20C on MOGREPS.

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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The Dub Version
17 November 2024 17:18:50
6c by day and -1c at night and a slight frost for 2.5 days. Epic for southerners. And this IS what the models are showing.
Berkshire
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
17 November 2024 17:57:48

6c by day and -1c at night and a slight frost for 2.5 days. Epic for southerners. And this IS what the models are showing.

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 


Do I detect a touch of sarcasm? Well, even if the above works out, it will be epic for southerners after a decade of ultra-mild Novembers.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Whether Idle
17 November 2024 18:25:18

Epic for southerners. And this IS what the models are showing.

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 


This could be our "winter", so grab those sub 10c maxima and a touch of frost, with both gloved hands while you can Dubster!
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
+1
fairweather
17 November 2024 19:05:27

6c by day and -1c at night and a slight frost for 2.5 days. Epic for southerners. And this IS what the models are showing.

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 


I agree and 90% of the population might not see any snow but all the same it is unusually cold this early in the season and so of interest. It's also nice in that it leaves another 4 months for more opportunities.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+1
Rob K
17 November 2024 20:23:36

6c by day and -1c at night and a slight frost for 2.5 days. Epic for southerners. And this IS what the models are showing.

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 


Not really. I am less than 50 miles from the south coast and Thursday shows 3C max here. (And 14C by Saturday!)
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
The Dub Version
17 November 2024 20:52:08

This could be our "winter", so grab those sub 10c maxima and a touch of frost, with both gloved hands while you can Dubster!

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Correct. Cold November outbreaks and pre winter snow usually is followed by a very mild winter. 
Berkshire
+1
ballamar
17 November 2024 20:53:27
On the extended ECM the NH profile looks interesting for beginning of Dec with what looks like a split PV
+1
Essan
17 November 2024 21:23:37

Do I detect a touch of sarcasm? Well, even if the above works out, it will be epic for southerners after a decade of ultra-mild Novembers.

Originally Posted by: DEW 


Not sure that 3 or 4 colder than normal days in an otherwise bland and mild month with really be epic 😉   
Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

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Gandalf The White
17 November 2024 21:33:53

Not sure that 3 or 4 colder than normal days in an otherwise bland and mild month with really be epic 😉   

Originally Posted by: Essan 


Snow in lowland southern Britain in mid-November is pretty rare but I agree the label ‘epic’ might be a tad optimistic.

Quite a few of the high res models are showing sleet or snow through parts of East Anglia and into the Home Counties on Monday night into Tuesday morning, plus ECM of course.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Essan
17 November 2024 22:04:29
Interesting to see the potential range of temp for Pershore on Saturday according to the MetO app:   whilst the predicted max/min is 7c/2c there is a potential of 17c/-10c       Guess it shows how uncertain the outlook is for the end of the week!     Both extremes would be quite remarkable.
Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
+1
dagspot
17 November 2024 22:10:48

Correct. Cold November outbreaks and pre winter snow usually is followed by a very mild winter. 

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 


Not sure that carries any statistical significance. Always as hearsay as ‘if its cold in US its mild in UK’ 
Neilston 600ft ASL
+1
Chunky Pea
17 November 2024 22:32:13

Not sure that carries any statistical significance. Always as hearsay as ‘if its cold in US its mild in UK’ 

Originally Posted by: dagspot 


I find that the weather in the US often aligns with that on this side of the pond. They, too have had a very mild and very dry Autumn so far... at least in the central and eastern states. 

November 2010 had a very snowy end, and that was followed by a brutally cold December. Similarly, Nov 2017 was somewhat snowy but if I recall correctly, following winter was mild, apart from the 'beast from the east' episode. It's all random chance really. One thing I do think holds some water though is that very wet Novembers can be an indicator of colder winters. Not even sure that is statistically backed up, but it certainly feels that way. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Bolty
17 November 2024 23:01:09
Whilst most of the focus is on Tuesday's event, the end of the week also caught my eye. Blimey, what a remarkable flip in the weather in just the space of a few days. The 18Z GFS has places struggling to get above freezing on Friday thenn up to the mid-teens by Sunday! That's almost like the rapid flips that the American Midwest get during the autumn.

Friday, sub-0°C uppers and widely 0-5°C on the surface:
UserPostedImageUserPostedImage
Sunday, approaching 10°C uppers in the SE and widely 13-17°C on the surface:
UserPostedImageUserPostedImage
Notable November cold and snow to notable November warmth in the space of 48 hours.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
idj20
17 November 2024 23:26:42

Whilst most of the focus is on Tuesday's event, the end of the week also caught my eye. Blimey, what a remarkable flip in the weather in just the space of a few days. The 18Z GFS has places struggling to get above freezing on Friday thenn up to the mid-teens by Sunday! That's almost like the rapid flips that the American Midwest get during the autumn.

Friday, sub-0°C uppers and widely 0-5°C on the surface:
UserPostedImageUserPostedImage
Sunday, approaching 10°C uppers in the SE and widely 13-17°C on the surface:
UserPostedImageUserPostedImage
Notable November cold and snow to notable November warmth in the space of 48 hours.

Originally Posted by: Bolty 


Just a shame that flip will almost certainly be accompanied with the return of rain and strong winds. 
Folkestone Harbour. 
Jiries
18 November 2024 05:51:32

Just a shame that flip will almost certainly be accompanied with the return of rain and strong winds. 

Originally Posted by: idj20 


Yes shame we don’t get sun out is this but if rain the temperature will be suppressed lower so likely below 10 not high of 17C. They attempted to reach 20 here in early November failed and was only 9C.  Those charts can be misleading and ground surface show different results. 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
18 November 2024 08:04:07
BBC message this morning was for heavy snow tonight over hills in N England and S Scotland, and then - a phrase I've not heard used before - "quite nasty" for the weekend. Back to the official charts ...

WX - a repetition of yesterday for temps,  "charts in week 1 show a cold Europe with freezing conditions in mountainous areas including Scotland, though the bulk of the freezing weather has withdrawn to Scandinavia and N Russia, In week 2 these areas get colder and expand SE-wards again, coming up against milder air from the south which reaches England (not Scotland), France and Germany."  The pptn pattern has changed  - week 1 heavy for Britain and the Baltic, specially heavy near the Channel, week 2 drier with the focus moving to the western Med.

GFS Op - the main centre of LP this week is over the Baltic, sometimes as low as 960mb, but with a 'slider ' LP in its circulation moving SE-wards across England later today and reviving the N-lies for the rest of the week. Briefly calm on Fri 22nd before deep Atlantic LP reaches the Irish Sea 970 mb midday Saturday 23rd with gales for all of Britain. After this clears E-wards, an HP regime sets in, the first cell 1030mb Scotland Wed 27th (but with E-lies and possibly unsettled weather over France affecting the south) and a second cell 1030mb S England Mon 2nd bringing in mild S-lies.


ECM - like GFS but less of a break on Fri 22nd and a deeper LP to follow 950mb N Ireland Sun 24th. Then the HP for Scotland Wed 27th quickly fades SE-wards with Atlantic SW-lies for the west coast.

GEM - hedges its bets with the weekend LP, from the Irish Sea on Sat to N Ireland on Sun. At the end there is a ridge of HP all the way down the spine of Britain on Wed 27th 1040mb

GEFS - In England, some rain, snow for N Midlands N-wards,  now ushering in a cold or very cold week (down to 8C below norm) but temps recover abruptly to well above norm Sat 23rd with the onset of heavy rain, good ens agreement to this point. After a short dip, temps stay above norm though slowly declining into December, weather also gradually drying up. In Scotland, mainly dry to the 23rd but any pptn likely to be snow, then a less marked recovery in temp (in fact only slowly crawling back to norm by Thu 29th) with not quite as much rain as further south 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
Ally Pally Snowman
18 November 2024 08:39:40
After the cold spell the ECM 0z is remarkably mild this morning , 850s between 8c and 12c for a decent chunk of the run.
We seem to be losing the signal for any longevity for cold. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1

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