Current chart output
WX temps from week 1 with temps near norm across Europe, colder in mountainous areas incl N Britain, to week 2 with a big expansion of freezing weather from Russia SE-wards to C Europe, and the rest of continental Europe also distinctly colder, though not much change for Britain. Pptn outlook wet for most of Europe except Poland and Spain, heavy for Britain and France; week 2 much drier with rain only for N Atlantic and W Mediterranean.
GFS Op 0z - LP in the Baltic keeps N-lies or NW-lies going over Britain to Fri 22nd, noticeably colder for the E coast; snow threat may be revived by a slider LP heading for Biscay Thu 21st, though it seems too far away for anything significant. Then a very deep and stormy LP 950mb Rockall Sun 24th, SW-ly gales for all, but cold for the N, mild in the S. This LP moves quickly E-wards and by Wed 27th HP 1035mb covers Britain and the N Sea persisting to Wed 4th (albeit LP over France giving E-lies for the S Coast), briefly interrupted by a weak trough from the Atlantic before the Azores HP extends a ridge 1040mb Ireland Thu 5th moving towards Scotland. JET strong and to the S of Britain this week, then moving N and breaking up into uncoordinated streaks
ECM - similar to GFS to Wed 27th but the HP soon moves to Germany and Britain has a run of mild but strong SW-lies to Fri 29th (end of run)
GEM - more NW-ly than N-ly this week, then HP moves on as per ECM with Atlantic LPs nudging the NW
GEFS - Generally very cold to Fri 22nd then abruptly very mild for a couple of days with heavy rain after which agreement of ens members breaks down - temps go back to mean (or a little above in the N) to Thu 5th but in the S control and a cluster above this, op and assorted outliers below, in the N chaotic disagreement. The chance of rain slowly decreases in the S but there are occasional bursts in the N.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl