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Rob K
18 November 2024 08:47:19
UKMO HD model gives some heavy snow across the south on Thursday with significant accumulations in eg the Cotswolds. 

Then heavy rain countrywide on Saturday with very mild conditions which would surely create some flooding problems with several cm of snow to melt in places. 

In fact Saturday looks absolutely atrocious. The GFS has a bullseye low right over the country too. 

However that’s nothing compared to northern France which gets stuck under a conveyor belt of rain and has 100mm+ of rain modelled over a wide area between Saturday and next Wednesday. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Hippydave
18 November 2024 08:59:14

After the cold spell the ECM 0z is remarkably mild this morning , 850s between 8c and 12c for a decent chunk of the run.
We seem to be losing the signal for any longevity for cold. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Was thinking something similar WRT longer term prospects this morning, seems to be a trend towards a milder mid and longer term, IMBY at least. GFS/GEFS still has something of a cooler interlude post this weekends significant warm up, although that looks to be a less likely outcome with more chance of average to mild 850s. (Don't think the ECM ens are out yet, may of course paint a slightly more optimistic picture if it's cooler weather you want).


For balance the picture is tilted more towards cool/cold for places further North, a quick look at the Aberdeen GEFS for example shows a greater likelihood of colder air persisting until circa 28/29th November.


Will be interesting to see if we do slump in to a more default pattern in time for the start of winter or if more favourable blocking starts to creep back in to view. I do generally view Greenie HP interludes as more likely to slump back to mild and wetter for the south at least, as they often seem to encourage sinking ridges of HP that then settle over the near continent and the jet pushes a bit further north. Recent experience tends to suggest that the milder pattern will then stay around for a while but there's been enough incidents over the past couple of years where blocking reloads to hold on to some optimism imo. Even if we don't get a reload of any description at least we're not even in winter yet, rather than scouring FI charts in mid to late February!
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
+3
The Dub Version
18 November 2024 11:59:04

After the cold spell the ECM 0z is remarkably mild this morning , 850s between 8c and 12c for a decent chunk of the run.
We seem to be losing the signal for any longevity for cold. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


yep for the south especially, back to mildness rapidly Saturday after the mini "waft"
Berkshire
Rob K
18 November 2024 13:54:08
Not sure it's looking that mild, for example the GFS op run shows snow cover persisting across much of the northern half of the UK right out to the end of the run. The temperature never goes above 1C for much of the Highlands, for example.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
Hippydave
18 November 2024 16:59:43
GFS 12z again suggesting that after the next couple of days the focus shifts to impacts from wind, with the weekends LP giving a transient spell of snow for some along with gales for many. 
The GFS goes quite interesting from a colder POV thereafter, with HP inflating just to the north of the UK and chilly air trapped in situ. There's a weak push of the Atlantic from the SW at T280 or so but the colder air remains in place for the north of the UK, and even at the surface down in the far south it only gets to average or a touch below before cooler air starts to sink south again as the HP builds further. 
GEM doesn't get the HP far enough north, so whilst it traps cooler air under a ridge, the setup looks potentially more likely to sink further south allowing a quicker return to milder air although at T201 that hasn't happened and the Atlantic isn't looking particularly punchy. 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Retron
18 November 2024 17:09:59

GFS 12z again suggesting that after the next couple of days the focus shifts to impacts from wind, with the weekends LP giving a transient spell of snow for some along with gales for many. 

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 


This coming weekend has looked miserable for the past several days, but the wind's really being ramped up by the GFS - it is, of course, prone to over-deepen lows, and at sub 945 west of Scotland at T+126 I fancy it's done its usual trick this evening. I'd hope to see a reduction in the two days of >60mph winds it promises here, anyway!

That said, the MetO raw has also been ramping things up over the past few runs. It had winds gusting into the 30s (for Saturday) on its Sunday morning output, touched 40 this morning, and this evening's output is showing 47, which is unusually high this far out.

Leysdown, north Kent
Brian Gaze
18 November 2024 17:42:32
Please stay on topic.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Chunky Pea
18 November 2024 17:47:43
The low coming in on Friday could be potentially potent. Sliver of Tm surrounded by Pm air on virtually all sides could create quite the spin. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Retron
18 November 2024 18:12:01
Looks like MOGREPS continues to have a wide envelope this weekend, going by the MetO raw data. While Friday here is showing max 6, min 0, with a max possible of 8 and a min possible of -4, Saturday is showing max 13, min 7, with a possible range of 19 to -4. This morning it was even showing a potential max of 20, so the data does update at least once during the day.

Incidentally at the other end of the UK, Ben Nevis has a forecast min of -11 on Sunday, with the lowest possible being -20.

Given that we're already seeing -7s in Tulloch Bridge and Lock Glascarnoch - with the MetO text forecast only saying -5 - we could well be in for some notably low minima over the snowfields of the Highlands in the coming days.
Leysdown, north Kent
Rob K
18 November 2024 23:12:53
18Z GFS once again hinting at an easterly to end the month although doesn’t give it the full beans. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
White Meadows
18 November 2024 23:21:08

18Z GFS once again hinting at an easterly to end the month although doesn’t give it the full beans. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I noticed that too, in agreement with ECM for the end of the run. 
A million miles away and will probably be gone tomorrow but encouraging and may well fit with Exeter’s cold and settled December (which was forecast previously as full on hairdryer mode in the Cont. Planners).

nsrobins
19 November 2024 07:28:09
Trying to stick to my mantra of not commenting every day to try to smooth the output a bit (see previous posts).
It looks like the ship has sailed (or at least leaving port with the deck party in full swing) with respect a longer cold spell. There’s still a slim chance high pressure may hang around but with the PV ramping up a mobile SW regime is more likely to set in for a period now. 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Rob K
19 November 2024 07:28:48

I noticed that too, in agreement with ECM for the end of the run. 
A million miles away and will probably be gone tomorrow but encouraging and may well fit with Exeter’s cold and settled December (which was forecast previously as full on hairdryer mode in the Cont. Planners).

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


All change this morning. Both GFS and ECM are about as bad as you can get for cold prospects in the long term. High pressure taking up residence in Europe with the jet on that familiar SW-NE track, making itself comfortable until March 😉 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
19 November 2024 08:15:57
Current chart output

WX temps from week 1 with temps near norm across Europe, colder in mountainous areas incl N Britain, to week 2 with a big expansion of freezing weather from Russia SE-wards to C Europe, and the rest of continental Europe also distinctly colder, though not much change for Britain. Pptn outlook wet for most of Europe except Poland and Spain, heavy for Britain and France; week 2 much drier with rain only for N Atlantic and W Mediterranean.

GFS Op 0z - LP in the Baltic keeps N-lies or NW-lies going over Britain to Fri 22nd, noticeably colder for the E coast; snow threat may be revived by a slider LP heading for Biscay Thu 21st, though it seems too far away for anything significant. Then a very deep and stormy LP 950mb Rockall Sun 24th, SW-ly gales for all, but cold for the N, mild in the S.  This LP moves quickly E-wards and by Wed 27th HP 1035mb covers Britain and the N Sea persisting to Wed 4th (albeit LP over France giving E-lies for the S Coast), briefly interrupted by a weak  trough from the Atlantic before the Azores HP extends a ridge 1040mb Ireland Thu 5th moving towards Scotland. JET strong and to the S of Britain this week, then moving N and breaking up into uncoordinated streaks

ECM - similar to GFS to Wed 27th but the HP soon moves to Germany and Britain has a run of mild but strong SW-lies to Fri 29th (end of run)

GEM - more NW-ly than N-ly this week, then HP moves on as per ECM with Atlantic LPs nudging the NW

GEFS - Generally very cold to Fri 22nd then abruptly very mild for a couple of days with heavy rain after which agreement of ens members breaks down - temps go back to mean (or a little above in the N) to Thu 5th but in the S control and a cluster above this, op and assorted outliers below, in the N chaotic disagreement.  The chance of rain slowly decreases in the S but there are occasional bursts in the N. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
The Beast from the East
19 November 2024 09:51:05

All change this morning. Both GFS and ECM are about as bad as you can get for cold prospects in the long term. High pressure taking up residence in Europe with the jet on that familiar SW-NE track, making itself comfortable until March 😉 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Winter is Over!  Northerners make the most of any white stuff you see and show your kids, as it will be a rare sight in future years.  
Yes, looks like the Euroslug taking up residence again, hopefully it will be cloud free and perhaps very mild 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
johncs2016
19 November 2024 10:03:36

Winter is Over!  Northerners make the most of any white stuff you see and show your kids, as it will be a rare sight in future years.  
Yes, looks like the Euroslug taking up residence again, hopefully it will be cloud free and perhaps very mild 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I wouldn't go as far as that but it wouldn't surprise me in any way if that ended up being "it" for our "winter" once this current cold snap is over as that would just be so typical of our weather here in the UK.

If this means that we might finally get some rain at long last though, I will happily take that because although we're in that cold snap just now, this month has still been our most boring and uninteresting month on record with virtually nothing happening which is even remotely interesting. This is therefore still continuing to show us yet again that changeable weather just doesn't happen here any more in the way that it used to.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
David M Porter
19 November 2024 10:05:48
From what I can see, this morning's ECM 00z looks almost a carbon copy of yesterday morning's run. Last night's 12z looked better in as much as HP was positioned over or closer to the British Isles rather than over the continent as shown this morning. GFS 00z looks a little better in this respect too this morning with HP having more influence over our weather for longer.
For me anyway, what happens from early next week is still open to question to some degree. I suspect that the behaviour of the LP forecast for the coming weekend will have a big say in what takes place thereafter.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Rob K
19 November 2024 11:42:14
Saturday's low looks like taking a much more northerly track than previously modelled. Certainly very wet but the strong winds look to be less of a concern.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
fairweather
19 November 2024 11:46:03
I wonder what the weather will be like when winter starts in a couple of weeks time? 😀 Only 14 weeks left + March.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Retron
19 November 2024 11:47:17

Saturday's low looks like taking a much more northerly track than previously modelled. Certainly very wet but the strong winds look to be less of a concern.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I'd disagree there - remember, the further north the greater the windspeed and the greater the areal expanse of the winds will be. The MetO raw has ramped up the winds continuously since Saturday first appeared on the output, now reaching 53 here (and with 12 hours above 50).

The 6z GFS is even worse. IF this comes off it'll be the most sustained windy spell for many, many years down here!

I would expect wind warnings to be issued tomorrow if things remain the same.

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/gfs.jpg 

UserPostedImage
Leysdown, north Kent
Gandalf The White
19 November 2024 11:50:45

From what I can see, this morning's ECM 00z looks almost a carbon copy of yesterday morning's run. Last night's 12z looked better in as much as HP was positioned over or closer to the British Isles rather than over the continent as shown this morning. GFS 00z looks a little better in this respect too this morning with HP having more influence over our weather for longer.
For me anyway, what happens from early next week is still open to question to some degree. I suspect that the behaviour of the LP forecast for the coming weekend will have a big say in what takes place thereafter.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


I find it fascinating how the models identify a long wave pattern change but often take some time to nail down what it will be.  We’ve gone through the usual ritual of westerlies breaking through, then more WAA and potential renewed blocking.  As you imply, the jet stream will, as usual, be a key component.

As the charts suggest, if a strong PV does get established around Iceland then blocking usually gets shoved east and south.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
19 November 2024 13:17:40
Still going to hold out hope that the cold core greenland low is a bit weaker and doesn't spin up that atlantic depression and turn everything mild by sunday.
ICON0Z still shows a possible route out.
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
+1
Quantum
19 November 2024 13:22:11
P27 of the ARPEGE ensembles on the 6Z set still holds out.
https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/pearp/runs/2024111906/pearpeu-2-102-0-26.png?19-12 
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Quantum
19 November 2024 14:59:20
ICON12z is more like the 0Z than the 6Z.
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
ballamar
19 November 2024 16:30:23
If we can get a static hp again like the 12z op run we can quickly develop our own cold pool. Better than raging zonality

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