WX charts - week 1, a two-pronged attack of cold air from Russia towards N Britain and also down to the Alps, with the Baltic a little milder. In week 2,the cold extends to fill in the gap round the Baltic, and across to E France. If anything, Britain is a touch milder. Pptn generally over Europe in week 1, specially heavy for W Britain. In week 2, the pptn clears to the NW (not quite leaving W Scotland) and to SE Europe, leaving a dry area from N Norway through the N Sea and on down to Spain.
GFS Op 0z - the main cold LP is currently 970mb Finland with a couple of minor disturbances in the N-ly flow tomorrow; one looking flabby in the N Sea, another more focused 985mb Brittany which could bring some snow to the moors in the SW. All clears E-wards before a very deep depression sets up Sat 23rd 945mb Rockall with SW-ly gales for all (GFS doesn't show front but FAX has these zooming through across Britain and out of the way on Sunday). This fills slowly as it moves across the far N of Scotland and leaves a default ridge of HP over Britain Wed 27th. This HP moves to Norway with a ridge down the N Sea, strong S-lies for all at first, weakening and turning into the SE by Tue 3rd before a shallow trough moves E from the Atlantic.
ECM - similar to GFS until Thu 28th when there is no HP over Norway, but instead a rather indeterminate area of LP approaches from the Atlantic, becoming 995mb N Scotland Sat 30th with a general W-ly flow for Britain. In this model any intense continental HP stays well to the E, somewhere near Kazakhstan.
GEM - takes the ECM thinking a stage further with the 'indeterminate' LP deepening to 985mb Irish Sea Fri 29th, then drifting N-wards with much the same central pressure.
GEFS - cold to Sat 23rd, abruptly milder (esp in S) for a couple of days with heavy rain and back to norm on Tue 26th. Most runs then agree on a very mild period to Tue 3rd though a few colder runs peg back the mean; after this there is little useful agreement tough more mild than cold. The amount of rain after the 26th is less for a week but after that, as noted, no agreement - but, asever, persisting in the far NW.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl