Quite like the ECM - temps will begin to drop under the HP and a hint of retrogression towards the end of extended run. Not the worst start to the colder season!

If that results in the UK getting some more snow at the end of all of that, could we please have some of that here where I am?

Perhaps if we had got that on this occasion instead of missing out, I would probably not have been so unhappy with the current weather pattern even if didn't rain here.

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18Z GFS not serving up much cheer. Tomorrow’s low heads further south and then we end up with the oh so familiar ruler straight isobars stretching from the Azores to Tromso, with low pressure over Greece. 

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Much as I despise cold and winter, I get that and respect it. Long way to go until spring 

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WX temps with something of a shift this morning. From week 1 with a fairly cold NW Europe (being threatened yesterday with a further expansion of cold air for Russia) milder air floods in from the SW all the way up to the Baltic in week 2. The cold air escapes to the SE, to the Balkans and especially Turkey. Rain/snow fairly general across Europe in week 1 but notably heavy for Britain; in week 2 this retreats NW-wards leaving C Europe dry but Britain still wet.

GFS Op 0z - the cold LP over Scandinavia and its associated runner over France all collecting up and moving off NE-wards while a new and very deep LP moves in for the weekend with SW-ly gales (950mb Rockall Sat 23rd, drifting NE to the Hebrides Mon 25th 960mb). By Fri 29th, having delivered a shot of mild air to NW Europe, this system declines and HP develops over Germany 1030mb Sat 30th with very mild S-lies for Britain. LPs from the Atlantic then begin to run E-wards close to N Scotland and by Sat 7th there are full-on zonal W--lies sandwiched between 980mb cool and unsettled in Shetland and 1020mb fine and mild along the S coast.

JET stream - a strong streak from the NW driving this weekend's LP but then fragmentary until Thu 5th when strong W-ly and directed at Scotland.

ECM - similar to GFS though the HP towards the end of the run Sun 1st is further north, over Scandinavia with a ridge to Britain hence calmer and more settled.

GEM - Not much sign of HP later on, with a series of shallow LPs moving towards Britain from the SW from Sat 28th onwards

GEFS - briefly very mild over the weekend, dropping back to norm by Wed 27th and  very wet esp in S until then with good ens agreement. After that a long generally rather  mild period in most runs but with a number of cold outputs differing to keep the mean near norm. Rain continuing on and off in many runs at most times, heaviest in SW. 

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A small cluster of lower 850s appearing.  This appears to be associated with the possibility of the ridge that forms around the middle of next week developing into a higher block to the east of the UK.  Just a hint on the GFS ens but ECM more bullish?

Yes the trend this morning seems to be for HP to develop a bit further north than the usual Euroslug which could keep things on the cooler side or even introduce a bit of easterly influence.

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Not so on the GFS 6z, pressure much too high to the south and allows some extremely mild weather to develop.

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Which you would not be surprised to learn is a mild outlier toward the end of the run.

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Although I’d need GFS to get on board with the idea of a higher latitude block as per ECM to be invested in the possibility of colder than average after the Bert show.

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I agree, just pointing out that looking at just the operational is not a good idea.

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ECM has a gap between Bert and the next Atlantic low. This allows the HP 'wedge' in the northern Atlantic to survive, which then moves eastwards to centre over southern Scandinavia then Germany (it does look like it's going to sink further SE, too)

GFS spins a shortwave from the following low, which gets caught in the tailwind of Bert and squeezes out any room for that HP 'wedge' to form in the northern Atlantic, and it then sits over the Med, covering much of continental Europe

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Amazing how quickly cold is swept away in last 10 to 15 years.

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