theweatheroutlook

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Saint Snow
20 November 2024 10:10:15
WRT showers on the western part of the UK, it looks like milder air could be getting mixed in already by early hours of Friday morning, as the showers being forecast turn increasingly less snowy.

We're out on Sunday (Chatsworth) and although I'm relieved we'd not planned this for Saturday, the forecast temp (Met Office) for Sunday there has, over the past few days, risen almost each update, from 4c to 11c. There's also still the danger of a trailing front dragging its feet behind the main system.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Whiteout
20 November 2024 12:01:27
Warning out for us SW folk:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?id=0608d234-6114-462c-b006-5e04bcdf3886&date=2024-11-21 

Have a well timed day off on Friday to get out on the higher parts of the Moor before it is washed away on Saturday. 
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Brian Gaze
20 November 2024 12:55:01
Surprised these haven't been commented on.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Chunky Pea
20 November 2024 12:58:08
A very distinct 'snow smell' out there, even though we got nothing here. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Snowedin3
20 November 2024 13:24:32
Mogreps shunting the front further north and more developed than expected perhaps? It does seem that the hi res models are ramping it up more than initially thought? Not to some of those outcomes mind.
Dean Barnes
Finstock, Chipping Norton, Oxfordshire
160m ASL 525 Ft
Lionel Hutz
20 November 2024 15:28:14

Surprised these haven't been commented on.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


There's an orange warning for parts of Southern Ireland for snow tonight with a more widespread yellow warning. I am sceptical as to whether I will see any snow at my location but there is certainly a risk of significant falls further inland or with a little bit of elevation.
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



nsrobins
20 November 2024 16:03:09
12Zs notching up risk for S ROI, SW and CS counties. Might be something or nothing but the new low looks deeper and further North than modelled yesterday.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Hippydave
20 November 2024 16:09:15

12Zs notching up risk for S ROI, SW and CS counties. Might be something or nothing but the new low looks deeper and further North than modelled yesterday.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Was just going to post something similar. The eastward extent of any precip looks to be close to West Kent so probably not anything to get too excited about for us Kent folk but areas further West may see something depending on intensity/height etc. 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
scillydave
20 November 2024 16:20:20

Surprised these haven't been commented on.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


11 is clearly the correct outcome.
Interestingly about 65% have a covering of snow for the South/Southwest/South Wales region. Definitely interest piqued.
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
doctormog
20 November 2024 17:07:54

Surprised these haven't been commented on.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Given the fact that the initial starting snow cover here (over 5cm) is missing I am taking those options with a pinch of salt. The models really struggle to get a handle of the convective snow showers up here in these situations.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Chunky Pea
20 November 2024 18:00:53

A very distinct 'snow smell' out there, even though we got nothing here. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


First snow of season falling, albiet lightly, here now. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
nsrobins
20 November 2024 18:39:00

First snow of season falling, albiet lightly, here now. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


I think you’re Galway. This would put the northern edge about 75miles north of the earlier UKV modelling. 
Nowcast from here but if you’re a snow-starved southerner I’d keep my eyes on it.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+1
Chunky Pea
20 November 2024 21:04:26
Fairly coming down now but only sticking on cars and wall tops etc. Still above freezing level which suggests the warmer air tracked further north than modelled, as Nsrobins noted above. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Saint Snow
20 November 2024 21:55:11
Bit of a streamer (albeit fragmented) setting up from the Irish Sea, the path running from a line roughly Southport to Derby. 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+1
Rob K
20 November 2024 22:48:45
18Z models seem to have reversed the trend of tracking the low further north. Quite. Abut further south on both GFS and Arpege, now barely skimming the south coast once you get out of Devon. Earlier optimism of seeing a chance of snow now vanished. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
21 November 2024 07:22:15
But before the weekend, the LP running across N France looks as if it may affect more of the south coast today. BBC weather suggesting it may reach West Sussex; Google has snow for Chichester throughout the morning. EDIT - MetO has sleet symbols

I'll be very surprised if it settles at low levels - perhaps a wet covering on the top of the Downs. EDIT - count me surprised😊
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
21 November 2024 08:33:00

But before the weekend, the LP running across N France looks as if it may affect more of the south coast today. BBC weather suggesting it may reach West Sussex; Google has snow for Chichester throughout the morning. EDIT - MetO has sleet symbols
I'll be very surprised if it settles at low levels - perhaps a wet covering on the top of the Downs.

Originally Posted by: DEW 


A forecasters' nightmare for low levels. Most roads will be fine here but once you reach the Ridgeway south of Dorchester or Dorset Downs (Sussex Downs even) it could be interesting.
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
Saint Snow
21 November 2024 09:58:43
Most models showing PPN moving into NW England this evening. Raw output has both rain and snow/graupel for MBY depending on the model.

I'm at an event in Manchester this evening. I'd been planning on getting the train, but might go in my car.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
21 November 2024 13:29:00

Most models showing PPN moving into NW England this evening. Raw output has both rain and snow/graupel for MBY depending on the model.

I'm at an event in Manchester this evening. I'd been planning on getting the train, but might go in my car.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 




Looking closer at this, I'm not sure why both the Met Office and BBC forecasts for here show sleet or rain (same for Manchester)

850's: -5 to -6
Thickness:  522
Dewpoint: 0 to -2
2m temp:  -1 to +1

We have a decent base of a cm of frozen graupel on all surfaces that have kept out of the sun, so hoping for snow.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
scillydave
21 November 2024 13:33:31

Surprised these haven't been commented on.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Interestingly despite these only being 24 hours out not a single got it anywhere near correct. The closest was perturbation 10.
An interesting day for the higher ground of Cornwall with the village of Minions (300masl) recieving 24cm of snow.

Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
Saint Snow
21 November 2024 17:57:30

Looking closer at this, I'm not sure why both the Met Office and BBC forecasts for here show sleet or rain (same for Manchester)

850's: -5 to -6
Thickness:  522
Dewpoint: 0 to -2
2m temp:  -1 to +1

We have a decent base of a cm of frozen graupel on all surfaces that have kept out of the sun, so hoping for snow.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 




And yet, here we are with rain teeming down 😖🤬

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

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