Hi folks. Will this fine and warm spell continue on until the end of July? Read on to find my thoughts on the outputs for today Thursday July 11th 2013.
All models show High pressure close to Western Britain keeping the UK fine and warm with any early cloud today dissolving away through the morning. The far North of Scotland will be the only exception to this fine rule with more cloud and occasional light rain. Through subsequent days taking us through the weekend the weather stays fine as High pressure extends a ridge across many areas leading to very warm or hot conditions with largely sunny skies. An old decaying cold front sinking SE over the weekend could give rise to an odd thundery showers particcularly over Northern England on Saturday and the SE on Sunday. Looking at the start of next week all models now state a continuation of largely fine conditions as the ridge holds on over Southern Britain with only the North seeing anything much in the way of cloud and a little rain at times in the far North.
GFS then shows High pressure building back across the UK later next week with fine and very warm conditions extending from the South to the North too with prolonged sunshine for all. By the weekend it will be hot for many with very light winds drifting in from the East with time. Through the late stages of the run the highest temperatures do leak away as Low pressure passes close to the North with a breezy and wetter spell up here for a time before at the close of the run that it's odds on for a return to warm and sunny conditions extending from the SW to end the month.
The GFS Ensembles show an almost blanket set with temperatures staying above the long term mean for almost the entire run. There is a little rain shown at times even in the South but this would be generated from what would be the occasional thundery shower and would be by no means a widespread event.
The Jet Stream shows that the earlier predicted movement South of the flow to the UK is thwarted as it now appears that the flow moves no further South than a position between Scotland and Iceland early next week before retreating back further NW once more as the new High pressure builds over the UK next week.
UKMO today looks much better and has caught up with the other models in promoting a strong ridge across much of the UK South of Scotland by Wednesday of next week with fine and warm or very warm conditions in sunny spells with somewhat cloudier conditions held way up North over Scotland, especially the far North.
GEM shows High pressure building back across the UK too through next week maintaining and spreading the influence of the fine weather over the South to all parts by midweek and meaning hot and humid conditions are felt by all by the end of the week and weekend with copious hot sunshine for all.
NAVGEM today also shows the same theme as the others with it's second build of pressure well in place over the UK by midweek with conditions becoming increasingly hot and sunny by the end of next week.
ECM shows a similar theme but is not quite as pronounced in it's extent and longevity of high pressure as it's counterparts but nevertheless there is fine, very warm and sunny weather for most through next week with some infringements of Atlantic troughs again by the end of the week, again mostly affecting the North with more cloud and the odd thundery shower elsewhere before pressure looks like rebuilding again beyond day 10.
In Summary there is an upgrade in the charts this morning from all models for another surge of Summer High pressure as it looks odds on to build across the UK again through next week. Only the far North of Scotland will suffer from any differences to this general rule of thumb with more cloud and a little rain at times but even here some very warm and pleasant days look possible at times. The most notable improvement this morning is from UKMO and with this endorsement we can now confidently say that there will be another week of almost non-existent rainfall and temperatures well above average reaching very warm or even hot values at times. There may be a few isolated thunderstorms or showers about as weak troughs decay in the upper air flow but these will be the exception to what otherwise looks like one of the best spells of Summer weather in July since at least 2006.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset