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idj20
11 July 2013 15:36:37





Wow...what runs this morning ! .


Back to work...


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Almost never ending Steve.


Shades of 95 about this summer.


Originally Posted by: idj20 



Except in 1995, all parts of Kent were experiencing 80 F-plus temperatures very easily. This time round, the models are still insisting on keeping it at around 17 C over Newfoundland/East Kent over the next few days while getting up to 31 C only 50 miles to the west.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Ian, please understand (and I know that this has been explained previously to you) that it is a resolution issue causing this. The NE'ly feed is cut off tomorrow meaning that 17c would be way way too cool once the airmass swings around to the W or NW.



Originally Posted by: Gusty 



Hi Steve, Oh I am aware of that. Perrhaps I should refine my last statement a bit more.

Looking at this "close up view" of tomorrow's output, http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=tmp2&HH=33&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&PANEL=0&LOOP=0&INFO=0&WMO= the "teens" type temperatures progged over East Kent is too large a feature to ignore and thus I will have to mention that when I do tomorrow's forecast for our region, especially if it is accompanied with cloud cover - in which that does seem to be the case as well. 
  However, it is true that as we go into the weekend then the warmer air to the west does make further progress eastwards into our county as wind become a N or NW but I still think the north-east tip (Thanet area) and East Kent coasts may still experience supressed temperatures. 
  By this point, indeed, us Folkestonians -where we are a little further to the south - should start to experience rising temperatures but I can't see us reaching 30 C type temperatures just yet (which isn't what I was "aiming" for anyway).

I wouldn't like to be a Londoner, though, that'd be too much for me in terms of heat and humidty come the weekend.

Folkestone Harbour. 
A3K
  • A3K
  • Advanced Member
11 July 2013 15:39:19
This is shaping up to be one of the best summer spells since I moved here. Output looks fantastic again. Can scarcely believe it given previous July's.
Andrew.
Born in the USA.
UserPostedImage


Matty H
  • Matty H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
11 July 2013 15:44:33

GFS is almost flatlining in 'perfect' territory ATM. What a great July so far!

I did notice that Matt H on twitter pointed out the ECM 32 has come round to showing a long settled spell. Does this mean the writing is on the wall?*


*Not a dig at Matt, I'm grateful to get an update on the EC32, but it's not been perfect so far has it.

Originally Posted by: Edicius81 



It's been total garbage. Personally I'd stop quoting it and save face
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Charmhills
11 July 2013 15:49:50

GFS is almost flatlining in 'perfect' territory ATM. What a great July so far!

I did notice that Matt H on twitter pointed out the ECM 32 has come round to showing a long settled spell. Does this mean the writing is on the wall?*


*Not a dig at Matt, I'm grateful to get an update on the EC32, but it's not been perfect so far has it.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



It's been total garbage. Personally I'd stop quoting it and save face

Originally Posted by: Edicius81 


The Met/o use it to.


Just one of those things as with all model tools.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Edicius81
11 July 2013 15:50:46



I wouldn't like to be a Londoner, though, that'd be too much for me in terms of heat and humidty come the weekend.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


Bring. It. On.


The GFS 12z high res looks even warmer still for the weekend. Now a 30c on the map for Surrey.


http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2013071112/48-580.GIF?11-12

Gusty
11 July 2013 15:54:10






Wow...what runs this morning ! .


Back to work...


Originally Posted by: idj20 


Almost never ending Steve.


Shades of 95 about this summer.


Originally Posted by: Gusty 



Except in 1995, all parts of Kent were experiencing 80 F-plus temperatures very easily. This time round, the models are still insisting on keeping it at around 17 C over Newfoundland/East Kent over the next few days while getting up to 31 C only 50 miles to the west.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


Ian, please understand (and I know that this has been explained previously to you) that it is a resolution issue causing this. The NE'ly feed is cut off tomorrow meaning that 17c would be way way too cool once the airmass swings around to the W or NW.



Originally Posted by: Charmhills 



Hi Steve, Oh I am aware of that. Perrhaps I should refine my last statement a bit more.

Looking at this "close up view" of tomorrow's output, http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=tmp2&HH=33&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&PANEL=0&LOOP=0&INFO=0&WMO= the "teens" type temperatures progged over East Kent is too large a feature to ignore and thus I will have to mention that when I do tomorrow's forecast for our region, especially if it is accompanied with cloud cover - in which that does seem to be the case as well.

Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Hmmm. All of those 4 grid points appear to be in the sea. Maybe they then just take an average in the centre of those 4 grid points (east Kent mainland) and arrive at the temperature that way ?


Either way..I've never ever used those charts to predict T2M temperatures as there are so many other variables at play.


I'm more of dam thickness, 850, 925 and surface airflows, SST's, time of year and a huge dose of experience from previous variables to arrive at max and min temps on any given day.


 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Sevendust
11 July 2013 16:28:27

Stunning output- Best I've seen for years wrt Summer!

Matty H
  • Matty H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
11 July 2013 16:32:11

Stunning output- Best I've seen for years wrt Summer!

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 



Yep, hot forever. The end.
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Gusty
11 July 2013 16:36:07

9 days time...9 DAYS !


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2281.png


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Polar Low
11 July 2013 17:01:02
Gooner
11 July 2013 17:02:42

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn36017.png


Goes on and on and on

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Polar Low
11 July 2013 17:04:15

epic ukmo http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021


 


Now better than gfs at t144 imo.


 

Polar Low
11 July 2013 17:13:00

quite a chilly wind gfs picking up later on for eastern parts.


a good run none the less with good signal for hot condition soon after.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=162&mode=1


but a hot run early on for southern britian all days before t162  28 29 30

Gooner
11 July 2013 17:21:18


quite a chilly wind gfs picking up later on for eastern parts.


a good run none the less with good signal for hot condition soon after.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=162&mode=1


but a hot run early on for southern britian all days before t162  28 29 30


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn17417.png


The day still finishes hot

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Rob K
11 July 2013 17:49:52
32C now on the charts for Saturday!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs514.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs514.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs994.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1263.gif 

It's going to be hotter than Megan Fox's bikini bottoms.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Polar Low
11 July 2013 17:57:51

looking thou the gfs members and the mean mid term and longer looking even better than the opp so very very good news.

Polar Low
11 July 2013 18:04:54
Stormchaser
11 July 2013 18:47:40

Steady on Rob, that's seriously hot stuff you're talking about


We are in summer model nirvana as far as the 12z op runs go. Even the 12z, with it's more amplified version of events - unsupported by UKMO and with ECM taking up the halfway house to bring another day capable of nudging 30°C in the far south for Wednesday - manages to have only one notably less warm day, that being Friday 19th which sees 20-24°C across much of the country, the highest values in the SW'rn third plus most of N. Ireland (and the rest of Ireland).




ECM's rolling out now and at 168 hours it's warmer than the GFS version, with notably warmer air across eastern parts on the ECM version


I know it seems greedy but hopefully GFS is overdoing that Scandi trough for Wed-Sat next week

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Matty H
  • Matty H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
11 July 2013 18:55:55
Stormchaser
11 July 2013 18:56:33

There ought to be a bit shift on the 96 and 120 hour FAX charts tonight - the versions from yesterday night are now  markedly different to the current 12z model consensus.


Changes are already afoot in the nearer timeframe - just look at the old 96 hour chart:


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack3.gif


...and compare it with the newer 72h chart:


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif


The high pressure ridge has gone from 1021-1022 up to  1023-1024 (1025 in far SW) but look at the decaying front nearby - that could be the reason for the thundery shower risk they have been mentioning... although it's notable that the old 96 hour chart had a proper 'L' on it, which has since dissapeared, meaning that the model/Met. consensus has toned down the instabillity.


This has been an impressive case of the models underestimating the resilliance of a strong Azores High being allowed to build NE and E through the UK

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Charmhills
11 July 2013 18:59:13

A warm if not hot ECM with the odd cooler day here and there.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm962.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.gif

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Quantum
11 July 2013 18:59:38

Checked the CFS again today and saw the familiar pattern:


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/cfs-3-12-2013.png?12


Evidence of some greenland blocking. Anyway all 3 winter months were below average in terms of temp again.


 


This translates to regular Northerly and easterly spells such as this one:


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/cfs-0-3774.png?12


Obviously not wall to wall, but specifics are tea leaves at this range anyway. My point being the CFS is still longing for a cold winter. We will see if it is right when the real obsessive 6x a day model watching begins. 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)

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