It'll be a cool, wet summer, the long range models said... everything indicates we'll be stuck in a trough after early June, they said... no signs of anything decent this year, they said.

More discussion of such models, and the more useful shorter range ones, in here please.

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn7217.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn9617.png

Areas claiming 30c are sure to increase during the coming week

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12017.png 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2041.png

Has a different shape about it in comparison to the 12z, will the HP be pushed away ?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

Nothing much happening from the NW , a bit different to ECM at this point

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn33617.png

2 weeks today we are still in the heat

Though in between this is a less hot run, especially for the East.

Nothing to complain abouth though eh?

Nope. Just commenting. :)

Depends on what you mean by 'the East', but they look hot for here, all days above 25C, a lot if not most above 27C, some getting close to 30C, perhaps even 31C on Wednesday.

Things are slightly cooler overall but nothing singificant really.. the 'west is best' scenario is getting pushed back.. meaning everyone can enjoy some hotter weather, as opposed to the east being cursed by cloud.

Hot 00z runs with 30-31C temps all the way to next Sunday in the hi-res range.  Notice the persistant LP over W Russia and part of Europe was the similar one we suffer from it in 2007-2012 summers but strangely that LP over there still keep them warm to very warm uppers despite being unsettled.

Being 30-31C here despite uppers just above 10C threshold as we normally rely on 15C uppers to give you a 30C max.  I think because the ground temps and parched landscape helped to deliver higher than normal temps values that you should expect from over 10C uppers (mid to high 20s normally)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reursst.gif

Link of 15C from NE England where is 16C patch and from Denmark and Benelux coastal so still draining away the remaining cooling pool out into the altantic so need to wait for few more days to be cleared and allow the temps to rise to 17-18C as it should be level with S Ireland and SW tip coastal temps.

There are few if any changes in the weather shown in last night's output with most areas remaining dry, warm or very warm and sunny while the NW sees generally more cloud and the chance of a little light rain. There is a slight fly in the ointment though concerning Western coasts as the High has slipped a little SW overnight allowing cool and misty low cloud to approach Western coasts which will invade tonight and be a pain to clear through the daytime's in places here early in the week. Also there could be a few midweek showers in the afternoon inland but overall a fine week for all and the low cloud and mist will depart by midweek as the High builds back over the UK.

GFS then shows the weekend fine and warm for many though a slack Northerly flow could bring a few showers into Eastern Coastal Counties and the SE later in the weekend and start of the new week. Thereafter, a trend to more of a defined NW flow with cooler and more cloudy weather is shown with the North having some rain at times while the South still sees a fair amount of dry and bright weather.

The GFS Ensembles do show a slow trend now towards cooler conditions in Week 2 of it's output with the incidence of rain increasing markedly in the North as the NW flow gains increased support from many members.

The Jet Stream maintains it's Northern location for another week or so before sliding South to topple over the British Isles in Week 2.

UKMO today shows High pressure over Scotland next Saturday with all of the UK still enjoying fine and sunny weather with temperatures well above average especially in the South and NW.

GEM this morning shows High pressure clinging on across Southern Britain as we start Week 2 but it also shows some retrogression towards the SW allowing Atlantic fronts to attack the NW soon after the start of the week.

NAVGEM this morning maintains it's stance of keeping High pressure closer to the NE of the UK with a slack east flow to start week 2 with continuing very warm and settled conditions overall.

ECM finally still shows fine weather well in control next weekend as High pressure maintains it's position across the UK. It would be very warm with good sunny spells for most in very light winds. Towards the end of the run High pressure continues to hang on with just the threat of a shower in the East as a light Northerly then Westerly drift is present.

In Summary the weather looks set fair across the UK. as always there are exceptions to this general rule and these will affect different areas on different days but as exceptions go they are fairly small in importance reflected in areas of low cloud or sea breezes along with an odd shower. There is still no clear cut indication of an end to the pattern we currently have even given that GFS has firmed up a little on a downturn from the NW in week 2. So all in all still plenty of warm and sunny weather for many to enjoy with any likelihood of rain small and insignificant for the majority.

ECM hanging on or tailing off will still be dry....

Next weeks temps IMBY GFS 0z

M 27c

T 28c

W 31 c Red hot

T 29

F 27c

S 27 c

S 27 c

Not a bad week eh?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

Yesterday evenings ECM ( 240 ) had shown the HP shunted out the way with an attack from the NW, HP has a bit more influenece on teh UK this morning

Sorry for being a bit off topic, but not all the long range models got it wrong; CFS showed +ve height anomalies over the UK in July starting way back in April/May and never wavered since - accompanied by above average temperatures. I'm very impressed by it's performance there. That followed a signal for higher heights to the SW and NE in June, which also verified pretty well.

I think the Met Office ensemble model was actually quite similar to CFS but with the +ve height anomalies more to the NE in July. It didn't show above average temperatures though.

CFS is giving a rather vague signal for August but does have a weak trough signal to the NW so that's something...

Hopefully that venture is allowed in here - it is discussing a model after all

Now then... the morning runs reveal that GFS and UKMO have shifted to follow ECM's idea of troughing getting to our NE and developing thereafter - but the consensus is on the trough complex being more towards Russia than the UK, which allows high pressure to remain dominant across the UK with uppers near or above 10°C for the majority of us.

In the longer term, the models are hinting at the trough complex to our east enticing the jet stream to track more west-east than southwest-northeast, putting our high pressure under, er, pressure. The thing is though, that sort of progression has come and gone from the models during the past month without any verification. That said, it's far from an impossible development, so it's worth keeping an eye on.

My intro was somewhat tongue-in-cheek! lol

That said, Gavin P did a round up of the summer in May (and April), and I seem to remember very few models going for a decent summer and certainly nothing like what we have. If memory serves (and Gavin will have totell me if this is right), most seemed to suggest we would not have high pressure over us. 

Understood - I just felt like CFS deserved some praise for once, it tries so hard

You're right that most other models went for a poor summer. I couldn't understand it myself, as my pattern-matching research produced a decent summer pattern with June and July the best months. It's done pretty well

Just looked at GEM: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2013071400/gem-0-240.png?00

Very similar to ECM but with the jet being held on a NE trajectory to a greater extent

Sorry for being a bit off topic, but not all the long range models got it wrong; CFS showed +ve height anomalies over the UK in July starting way back in April/May and never wavered since - accompanied by above average temperatures. I'm very impressed by it's performance there. That followed a signal for higher heights to the SW and NE in June, which also verified pretty well.

I think the Met Office ensemble model was actually quite similar to CFS but with the +ve height anomalies more to the NE in July. It didn't show above average temperatures though.

CFS is giving a rather vague signal for August but does have a weak trough signal to the NW so that's something...

Hopefully that venture is allowed in here - it is discussing a model after all

Now then... the morning runs reveal that GFS and UKMO have shifted to follow ECM's idea of troughing getting to our NE and developing thereafter - but the consensus is on the trough complex being more towards Russia than the UK, which allows high pressure to remain dominant across the UK with uppers near or above 10°C for the majority of us.

In the longer term, the models are hinting at the trough complex to our east enticing the jet stream to track more west-east than southwest-northeast, putting our high pressure under, er, pressure. The thing is though, that sort of progression has come and gone from the models during the past month without any verification. That said, it's far from an impossible development, so it's worth keeping an eye on.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

My intro was somewhat tongue-in-cheek! lol

That said, Gavin P did a round up of the summer in May (and April), and I seem to remember very few models going for a decent summer and certainly nothing like what we have. If memory serves (and Gavin will have totell me if this is right), most seemed to suggest we would not have high pressure over us. 

Originally Posted by: NickR 

You're right. More proof, were it needed, of why LRFs are a total waste of time.


Not that I'm complaining. If some daft Atlantic model says no snow this winter and we end up with ten feet of it, then I won't be complaining about that either

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

You will be when you try to get out of your house.

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