Model Output Discussion 13-7-2013, 23:00 >>>· Page 3

theweatheroutlook

Jiries
Advanced Member

14 July 2013 18:50:34

If you count over 25c as properly hot then July 4was the first properly hot day of this spell.

UK maxima to best of my knowledge:

1st: 23.7c
2nd: 19.5c
3rd: 21.5c
4th: 25.2c
5th: 26.7c
6th: 27.1c
7th: 29.7c
8th: 29.9c
9th: 28.7c
10th: 28.1c
11th: 28.8c
12th: 29.1c
13th: 31.4c
14th: 31.0c

Originally Posted by: Rob K

And the latest 12z runs would keep most of us in the 28-31C zone for the foreseeable future. I am experiencing those temps that I experienced normal Chicago 29C July average temps. Lot of pepole was raiding the Ice Lollies/cream freezers at Sainsbury this morning and I managed to get my favourite one which was the last one.

CreweCold
Advanced Member

14 July 2013 19:07:40

#52

Evening people.

Some hints this evening we may be approaching the point where the sight of the end of this settled and hot spell comes into view.

The GFS plants the seeds of a potential pattern change towards the end of the hi res; this can be seen by low heights leeching from the trough to the NW (on a NW-SE axis).

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013071412/gfs-0-174.png?12

Then HP looks to try to establish itself once more before LP finds its way across the UK later in FI

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013071412/gfs-0-324.png?12

The ECM also looks to bring in the change hinted at by the GFS (albeit slightly earlier)

Here is 216 hrs

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013071412/ECM1-216.GIF?14-0

With retrogressing high and LP in control at 240 hrs

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013071412/ECM1-240.GIF?14-0

In summary it looks like a certain 8-9 days of continued hot and sunny weather with perhaps a breakdown at days 9-10

Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level

Polar Low
Advanced Member

14 July 2013 19:26:14

#53

opp was wild at end still warm runs in the mix even at end.#

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

NO breakdown in reliable timeframe

Polar Low
Advanced Member

14 July 2013 19:30:19

#54

Jap says no full stop keeps settled and very warm conditions going

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=192&mode=1

Polar Low
Advanced Member

14 July 2013 19:38:14

#55

weren't we here a week ago at the same timeframe? with gfs and ecm opp runs?

Steam Fog
Guest

14 July 2013 19:45:38

#56

weren't we here a week ago at the same timeframe? with gfs and ecm opp runs?

Originally Posted by: Polar Low

Yes, the 9-10 day output has suggested breakdowns several times recently which turned to nothing.

That said this current spell of warm and sunny weather won't go on forever of course and I wouldn't be too surprised to see it falter sometime in the last week of July.

Whether that becomes more or less likely should become clearer in the next few days.

Nothing to stop an encore in August of course!

Rob K
Advanced Member

14 July 2013 19:49:39

#57

Looking at that run of temps I posted, we have already had 9 days on the trot with 28c somewhere in the uk. Latest GFS prolongs that to at least the 22nd, and probably the 25th based on the low-res noon charts. So that would be 17-20 days at or above 28c. Not quite on a par with 1976's 15 days on the trot over 32c but still impressive!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Polar Low
Advanced Member

14 July 2013 20:03:26

#58

many members dont like the look of the opps ideas on gfs

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=6&ech=180&mode=0&carte=0

i go throu every run each day

navgm also looks solid

no white flag from me just yet.

Edited by user 14 July 2013 20:07:58 | Reason: Not specified

Gooner
Advanced Member

14 July 2013 20:05:46

#59

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

This is virtually identical to yesterdays 240 a day later it is still at 240, not saying the breakdown wont happen but it is struggling to pin a day down at the moment

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

CreweCold
Advanced Member

14 July 2013 20:06:54

#60

many members dont like the look of the opps ideas on gfs

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=6&ech=180&mode=0&carte=0

i go throu every run each day

navgm also looks solid

Originally Posted by: Polar Low

The day 10 means of both the GFS (12z) and ECM (0z until updated with 12z) show the hot spell coming to an end, with an intrusion of the trough from the NW. Last time a breakdown was hinted at, the ensemble means did not come on side. This time they appear to be doing just that.

GFS ensembles show the nosedive quite well (commencing about the 22nd or 23rd)

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=228&y=55

Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level

Polar Low
Advanced Member

14 July 2013 20:10:10

#61

sorry no white flag from me weve been here before models struggle with big blocks and always will.

many members dont like the look of the opps ideas on gfs

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartehp?code=6&ech=180&mode=0&carte=0

i go throu every run each day

navgm also looks solid

Originally Posted by: CreweCold

GFS ensembles show the nosedive quite well (commencing about the 22nd or 23rd)

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=228&y=55

Originally Posted by: Polar Low

CreweCold
Advanced Member

14 July 2013 20:13:20

#62

sorry no white flag from me weve been here before models struggle with big blocks and always will.

many members dont like the look of the opps ideas on gfs

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartehp?code=6&ech=180&mode=0&carte=0

i go throu every run each day

navgm also looks solid

Originally Posted by: Polar Low

GFS ensembles show the nosedive quite well (commencing about the 22nd or 23rd)

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=228&y=55

Originally Posted by: CreweCold

Originally Posted by: Polar Low

Not asking for a white flag mate. Just commenting on what is currently being signalled by the extended NWP output.

Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level

David M Porter
Advanced Member

14 July 2013 20:30:43

#63

weren't we here a week ago at the same timeframe? with gfs and ecm opp runs?

Originally Posted by: Polar Low

I seem to recall that although the overall consensus in the model output last weekend was for a lengthy settled spell, there were a few rogue GFS and ECM runs that showed the settled spell beginning to break down around the beginning of the week we're heading into. I agree with what Polar Low says about the models breaking down big HP blocks too quickly. Put it this way, if the few runs from GFS and ECM a week ago had been accurate, we'd almost certainly be looking at this week being rather cooler and more unsettled than what is is now forecast to be.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

Edicius81
Guest

14 July 2013 20:32:51

#64

Originally Posted by: Rob K

Rob, or anyone that may have the data. How does this compare with 2006 in terms of prolonged high temps? Everyone remembers the record, but I recall June and July were both persistently warm too.

Polar Low
Advanced Member

14 July 2013 20:39:29

#65

well no ecm on 0z and 12z mean much better than opp at t240 but its not reliable thats my point no breakdown in reliable Ill believe it more when its in reliable <t144

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html

sorry no white flag from me weve been here before models struggle with big blocks and always will.

many members dont like the look of the opps ideas on gfs

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartehp?code=6&ech=180&mode=0&carte=0

i go throu every run each day

navgm also looks solid

Originally Posted by: CreweCold

GFS ensembles show the nosedive quite well (commencing about the 22nd or 23rd)

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=228&y=55

Originally Posted by: Polar Low

Originally Posted by: CreweCold

Not asking for a white flag mate. Just commenting on what is currently being signalled by the extended NWP output.

Originally Posted by: Polar Low

Polar Low
Advanced Member

14 July 2013 20:40:51

#66

indeed

quote=David M Porter;513328]

weren't we here a week ago at the same timeframe? with gfs and ecm opp runs?

Originally Posted by: Polar Low

picturesareme
Advanced Member

14 July 2013 20:57:43

#67

Originally Posted by: Edicius81

Rob, or anyone that may have the data. How does this compare with 2006 in terms of prolonged high temps? Everyone remembers the record, but I recall June and July were both persistently warm too.

Originally Posted by: Rob K

well here is Heathrow July 2006...

Climatic mean values

Day	T	TM	Tm	SLP	H	PP	VV	V	VM	VG	RA	SN	TS	FG
1	22.6	29.7	15	-	48	0	10.1	11.7	22.2	-
2	24.7	32.3	18	-	45	0	10	12	22.2	-
3	24.2	31.4	17	-	43	0	10.3	12.6	22.2	-
4	24	31.3	18	-	50	0	10.9	10.9	22.2	-
5	19.8	23	17	-	79	3.81	7.2	11.1	24.1	-	o
6	19.6	25.4	16	-	78	0	9	17.6	24.1	-	o			o
7	18.4	22.8	15	-	71	0	10.3	16.7	22.2	-	o
8	17.7	23.5	13	-	57	0	11.4	18.9	29.4	-	o
9	17.4	23.9	14	-	71	2.03	10.9	25.4	38.9	50	o
10	17.5	22.4	14	-	80	0.51	10.6	15.9	27.8	40.7	o
11	19.6	25.2	15	-	58	0.51	10.6	12.8	22.2	-	o
12	19.8	27.6	12	-	55	0	10.5	10.7	18.3	-
13	18.6	23.6	14	-	64	0	11.3	11.1	20.6	-
14	17.2	24	12	-	56	0	10.5	18.9	25.9	-
15	18.8	26.3	13	-	50	0	11.1	16.5	25.9	-
16	21.2	30.5	14	-	51	0	10.5	12.4	20.6	-
17	23.9	32.7	15	-	40	0	10.5	8.9	16.5	-
18	24.4	33.2	16	-	44	0	10.6	12	22.2	-
19	25.9	35.5	18	-	47	0	10.3	14.8	27.8	-	o
20	24.7	31.7	19	-	36	0	10.1	19.3	37	51.9	o
21	24.9	31.7	18	-	58	0	9.8	12	20.6	-
22	22.4	29.5	19	-	73	4.06	9.3	10.6	27.8	-	o
23	20.8	26.5	16	-	71	0	10.3	12.2	22.2	-	o
24	22.6	30	15	-	56	0	10.6	10.6	18.3	-
25	25.2	33.1	17	-	53	0	8.4	12	18.3	-
26	26	32	20	-	54	0.51	9.8	11.3	25.9	38.9	o		o
27	22.5	30.3	19	-	71	8.89	9	10.9	27.8	-	o		o
28	21.9	29.1	16	-	61	0.76	10.3	10.2	16.5	-
29	20.8	26.7	15	-	68	0	10.6	16.5	31.3	40.7	o
30	20.8	25.4	17	-	61	0.51	10.5	18.3	27.8	-	o
31	19.5	24.2	16	-	67	0	11.4	22.8	33.5	53.5	o
Monthly means and totals:
	21.5	28.2	15.9	-	58.6	21.59	10.2	14.1	24.6		16	0	2	1

Interpretation

T Mean temperature (°C)
TM Maximum temperature (°C)

http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/Londres_Heathrow_Airport/07-2006/37720.htm

Edicius81
Guest

14 July 2013 21:12:44

#68

Interpretation

T Mean temperature (°C)
TM Maximum temperature (°C)

http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/Londres_Heathrow_Airport/07-2006/37720.htm

Originally Posted by: picturesareme

Cracking link, thanks

Just looking at the heathrow data there were a few days that were (relatively) cooler, preventing a decent sequence, but Rob said 'anywhere in the UK' so when (if) I get time I might have a gander at the typically warm stations and see if there was a long run nationwide.

Looking through all of the 12zs for the 10 day mark. There seems to be decent agreement that the mean position of the jet will be further south. How far south, and how that will effect us varies greatly.

picturesareme
Advanced Member

14 July 2013 21:17:32

#69

Interpretation

T Mean temperature (°C)
TM Maximum temperature (°C)

http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/Londres_Heathrow_Airport/07-2006/37720.htm

Originally Posted by: Edicius81

Cracking link, thanks

Originally Posted by: picturesareme

Your welcome

yes a few cooler days but many more that where warmer then anything 'officially' reached so far this month. The average day time max for July was 28.2C - warmer then July average for Lisbon portugal

Hungry Tiger
Advanced Member

14 July 2013 21:27:39

#70

Looking iffy towards the end of the month.

But it is a long way off.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/gfs.htm

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.

Hungry Tiger
Advanced Member

14 July 2013 21:29:31

#71

Originally Posted by: picturesareme

Rob, or anyone that may have the data. How does this compare with 2006 in terms of prolonged high temps? Everyone remembers the record, but I recall June and July were both persistently warm too.

Originally Posted by: Edicius81

well here is Heathrow July 2006...

Climatic mean values

Day	T	TM	Tm	SLP	H	PP	VV	V	VM	VG	RA	SN	TS	FG
1	22.6	29.7	15	-	48	0	10.1	11.7	22.2	-
2	24.7	32.3	18	-	45	0	10	12	22.2	-
3	24.2	31.4	17	-	43	0	10.3	12.6	22.2	-
4	24	31.3	18	-	50	0	10.9	10.9	22.2	-
5	19.8	23	17	-	79	3.81	7.2	11.1	24.1	-	o
6	19.6	25.4	16	-	78	0	9	17.6	24.1	-	o			o
7	18.4	22.8	15	-	71	0	10.3	16.7	22.2	-	o
8	17.7	23.5	13	-	57	0	11.4	18.9	29.4	-	o
9	17.4	23.9	14	-	71	2.03	10.9	25.4	38.9	50	o
10	17.5	22.4	14	-	80	0.51	10.6	15.9	27.8	40.7	o
11	19.6	25.2	15	-	58	0.51	10.6	12.8	22.2	-	o
12	19.8	27.6	12	-	55	0	10.5	10.7	18.3	-
13	18.6	23.6	14	-	64	0	11.3	11.1	20.6	-
14	17.2	24	12	-	56	0	10.5	18.9	25.9	-
15	18.8	26.3	13	-	50	0	11.1	16.5	25.9	-
16	21.2	30.5	14	-	51	0	10.5	12.4	20.6	-
17	23.9	32.7	15	-	40	0	10.5	8.9	16.5	-
18	24.4	33.2	16	-	44	0	10.6	12	22.2	-
19	25.9	35.5	18	-	47	0	10.3	14.8	27.8	-	o
20	24.7	31.7	19	-	36	0	10.1	19.3	37	51.9	o
21	24.9	31.7	18	-	58	0	9.8	12	20.6	-
22	22.4	29.5	19	-	73	4.06	9.3	10.6	27.8	-	o
23	20.8	26.5	16	-	71	0	10.3	12.2	22.2	-	o
24	22.6	30	15	-	56	0	10.6	10.6	18.3	-
25	25.2	33.1	17	-	53	0	8.4	12	18.3	-
26	26	32	20	-	54	0.51	9.8	11.3	25.9	38.9	o		o
27	22.5	30.3	19	-	71	8.89	9	10.9	27.8	-	o		o
28	21.9	29.1	16	-	61	0.76	10.3	10.2	16.5	-
29	20.8	26.7	15	-	68	0	10.6	16.5	31.3	40.7	o
30	20.8	25.4	17	-	61	0.51	10.5	18.3	27.8	-	o
31	19.5	24.2	16	-	67	0	11.4	22.8	33.5	53.5	o
Monthly means and totals:
	21.5	28.2	15.9	-	58.6	21.59	10.2	14.1	24.6		16	0	2	1

Interpretation

T Mean temperature (°C)
TM Maximum temperature (°C)

http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/Londres_Heathrow_Airport/07-2006/37720.htm

Originally Posted by: Rob K

My goodness - I was looking at the numbers of days close to or at 90f in old money - and its close to 10 - thats a third of the month.

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.

picturesareme
Advanced Member

14 July 2013 21:35:45

#72

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger

Rob, or anyone that may have the data. How does this compare with 2006 in terms of prolonged high temps? Everyone remembers the record, but I recall June and July were both persistently warm too.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme

well here is Heathrow July 2006...

Climatic mean values

Day	T	TM	Tm	SLP	H	PP	VV	V	VM	VG	RA	SN	TS	FG
1	22.6	29.7	15	-	48	0	10.1	11.7	22.2	-
2	24.7	32.3	18	-	45	0	10	12	22.2	-
3	24.2	31.4	17	-	43	0	10.3	12.6	22.2	-
4	24	31.3	18	-	50	0	10.9	10.9	22.2	-
5	19.8	23	17	-	79	3.81	7.2	11.1	24.1	-	o
6	19.6	25.4	16	-	78	0	9	17.6	24.1	-	o			o
7	18.4	22.8	15	-	71	0	10.3	16.7	22.2	-	o
8	17.7	23.5	13	-	57	0	11.4	18.9	29.4	-	o
9	17.4	23.9	14	-	71	2.03	10.9	25.4	38.9	50	o
10	17.5	22.4	14	-	80	0.51	10.6	15.9	27.8	40.7	o
11	19.6	25.2	15	-	58	0.51	10.6	12.8	22.2	-	o
12	19.8	27.6	12	-	55	0	10.5	10.7	18.3	-
13	18.6	23.6	14	-	64	0	11.3	11.1	20.6	-
14	17.2	24	12	-	56	0	10.5	18.9	25.9	-
15	18.8	26.3	13	-	50	0	11.1	16.5	25.9	-
16	21.2	30.5	14	-	51	0	10.5	12.4	20.6	-
17	23.9	32.7	15	-	40	0	10.5	8.9	16.5	-
18	24.4	33.2	16	-	44	0	10.6	12	22.2	-
19	25.9	35.5	18	-	47	0	10.3	14.8	27.8	-	o
20	24.7	31.7	19	-	36	0	10.1	19.3	37	51.9	o
21	24.9	31.7	18	-	58	0	9.8	12	20.6	-
22	22.4	29.5	19	-	73	4.06	9.3	10.6	27.8	-	o
23	20.8	26.5	16	-	71	0	10.3	12.2	22.2	-	o
24	22.6	30	15	-	56	0	10.6	10.6	18.3	-
25	25.2	33.1	17	-	53	0	8.4	12	18.3	-
26	26	32	20	-	54	0.51	9.8	11.3	25.9	38.9	o		o
27	22.5	30.3	19	-	71	8.89	9	10.9	27.8	-	o		o
28	21.9	29.1	16	-	61	0.76	10.3	10.2	16.5	-
29	20.8	26.7	15	-	68	0	10.6	16.5	31.3	40.7	o
30	20.8	25.4	17	-	61	0.51	10.5	18.3	27.8	-	o
31	19.5	24.2	16	-	67	0	11.4	22.8	33.5	53.5	o
Monthly means and totals:
	21.5	28.2	15.9	-	58.6	21.59	10.2	14.1	24.6		16	0	2	1

Interpretation

T Mean temperature (°C)
TM Maximum temperature (°C)

http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/Londres_Heathrow_Airport/07-2006/37720.htm

Originally Posted by: Edicius81

My goodness - I was looking at the numbers of days close to or at 90f in old money - and its close to 10 - thats a third of the month.

Originally Posted by: Rob K

a genuine hot month

David M Porter
Advanced Member

14 July 2013 21:42:12

#73

well no ecm on 0z and 12z mean much better than opp at t240 but its not reliable thats my point no breakdown in reliable Ill believe it more when its in reliable <t144

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html

sorry no white flag from me weve been here before models struggle with big blocks and always will.

many members dont like the look of the opps ideas on gfs

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartehp?code=6&ech=180&mode=0&carte=0

i go throu every run each day

navgm also looks solid

Originally Posted by: Polar Low

GFS ensembles show the nosedive quite well (commencing about the 22nd or 23rd)

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=228&y=55

Originally Posted by: CreweCold

Originally Posted by: Polar Low

Not asking for a white flag mate. Just commenting on what is currently being signalled by the extended NWP output.

Originally Posted by: CreweCold

Originally Posted by: Polar Low

One other thing I's say here is that over time I have seen a number of people comment that the FI section of the model runs at weekends can sometimes be less reliable than during the working week, presumably becuase of less data being fed into them or something like that. I'm not saying that is what is happening at the moment, but given that a few runs indicated a breakdown of sorts a week ago for this coming week, which will now not happen, I wouldn't be that surprised if during the coming week the hot spell is extended somewhat further. Fingers crossed!

Edited by user 14 July 2013 22:52:50 | Reason: Not specified

Sevendust
Guest

14 July 2013 21:42:55

#74

Looking iffy towards the end of the month.

But it is a long way off.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/gfs.htm

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger

Well the problems such as they are arrive on day 9 on ECM and day 12 on GFS. In computer model terms they are irrelevent until they arrive at a much closer timeframe

ARTzeman
Advanced Member

14 July 2013 22:29:04

#75

ECM Well in control wth no end to present pattern ....I would not exspect any change until after midweek of the first week of August.....But That is just me...

Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

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