It'll be a cool, wet summer, the long range models said... everything indicates we'll be stuck in a trough after early June, they said... no signs of anything decent this year, they said.

More discussion of such models, and the more useful shorter range ones, in here please.

Heatwave Rules apply (Paddling pool is wild, Only BBQ-ers allowed to post, and mods reserve the right to ban anyone for any reason, because we are constantly boozed up on cold lager).

Originally Posted by: NickR 

In the longer term, the models are hinting at the trough complex to our east enticing the jet stream to track more west-east than southwest-northeast, putting our high pressure under, er, pressure. The thing is though, that sort of progression has come and gone from the models during the past month without any verification. That said, it's far from an impossible development, so it's worth keeping an eye on.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

At 240 GFS now hinting at somethng from the NW just as ECM did yesterday evening

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

I reckon that will come about in August.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Sorry for being a bit off topic, but not all the long range models got it wrong; CFS showed +ve height anomalies over the UK in July starting way back in April/May and never wavered since - accompanied by above average temperatures. I'm very impressed by it's performance there. That followed a signal for higher heights to the SW and NE in June, which also verified pretty well.

I think the Met Office ensemble model was actually quite similar to CFS but with the +ve height anomalies more to the NE in July. It didn't show above average temperatures though.

CFS is giving a rather vague signal for August but does have a weak trough signal to the NW so that's something...

Hopefully that venture is allowed in here - it is discussing a model after all

Now then... the morning runs reveal that GFS and UKMO have shifted to follow ECM's idea of troughing getting to our NE and developing thereafter - but the consensus is on the trough complex being more towards Russia than the UK, which allows high pressure to remain dominant across the UK with uppers near or above 10°C for the majority of us.

In the longer term, the models are hinting at the trough complex to our east enticing the jet stream to track more west-east than southwest-northeast, putting our high pressure under, er, pressure. The thing is though, that sort of progression has come and gone from the models during the past month without any verification. That said, it's far from an impossible development, so it's worth keeping an eye on.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Still hot on Monday 22nd July a good scattering of maximums round 28/29C

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn19217.png

Into FI...

Tueday 23rd July still very warm 26C in central England.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn21617.png

Wednesday 24th July

Up to 27C 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn24017.png

26C on Thursday 25th July.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn26417.png

There is a push towards cooler and wetter temperatures, though now pushed back to 26th July.

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog 

Thats a long run of very warm weather for us .

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog 

That said, Gavin P did a round up of the summer in May (and April), and I seem to remember very few models going for a decent summer and certainly nothing like what we have. If memory serves (and Gavin will have totell me if this is right), most seemed to suggest we would not have high pressure over us. 

Originally Posted by: NickR 

That said, Gavin P did a round up of the summer in May (and April), and I seem to remember very few models going for a decent summer and certainly nothing like what we have. If memory serves (and Gavin will have totell me if this is right), most seemed to suggest we would not have high pressure over us. 

Originally Posted by: NickR