Sorry for being a bit off topic, but not all the long range models got it wrong; CFS showed +ve height anomalies over the UK in July starting way back in April/May and never wavered since - accompanied by above average temperatures. I'm very impressed by it's performance there. That followed a signal for higher heights to the SW and NE in June, which also verified pretty well.
I think the Met Office ensemble model was actually quite similar to CFS but with the +ve height anomalies more to the NE in July. It didn't show above average temperatures though.
CFS is giving a rather vague signal for August but does have a weak trough signal to the NW so that's something...
Hopefully that venture is allowed in here - it is discussing a model after all
Now then... the morning runs reveal that GFS and UKMO have shifted to follow ECM's idea of troughing getting to our NE and developing thereafter - but the consensus is on the trough complex being more towards Russia than the UK, which allows high pressure to remain dominant across the UK with uppers near or above 10°C for the majority of us.
In the longer term, the models are hinting at the trough complex to our east enticing the jet stream to track more west-east than southwest-northeast, putting our high pressure under, er, pressure. The thing is though, that sort of progression has come and gone from the models during the past month without any verification. That said, it's far from an impossible development, so it's worth keeping an eye on.
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser