Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday July 14th 2013.There are few if any changes in the weather shown in last night's output with most areas remaining dry, warm or very warm and sunny while the NW sees generally more cloud and the chance of a little light rain. There is a slight fly in the ointment though concerning Western coasts as the High has slipped a little SW overnight allowing cool and misty low cloud to approach Western coasts which will invade tonight and be a pain to clear through the daytime's in places here early in the week. Also there could be a few midweek showers in the afternoon inland but overall a fine week for all and the low cloud and mist will depart by midweek as the High builds back over the UK.
GFS then shows the weekend fine and warm for many though a slack Northerly flow could bring a few showers into Eastern Coastal Counties and the SE later in the weekend and start of the new week. Thereafter, a trend to more of a defined NW flow with cooler and more cloudy weather is shown with the North having some rain at times while the South still sees a fair amount of dry and bright weather.
The GFS Ensembles do show a slow trend now towards cooler conditions in Week 2 of it's output with the incidence of rain increasing markedly in the North as the NW flow gains increased support from many members.
The Jet Stream maintains it's Northern location for another week or so before sliding South to topple over the British Isles in Week 2.
UKMO today shows High pressure over Scotland next Saturday with all of the UK still enjoying fine and sunny weather with temperatures well above average especially in the South and NW.
GEM this morning shows High pressure clinging on across Southern Britain as we start Week 2 but it also shows some retrogression towards the SW allowing Atlantic fronts to attack the NW soon after the start of the week.
NAVGEM this morning maintains it's stance of keeping High pressure closer to the NE of the UK with a slack east flow to start week 2 with continuing very warm and settled conditions overall.
ECM finally still shows fine weather well in control next weekend as High pressure maintains it's position across the UK. It would be very warm with good sunny spells for most in very light winds. Towards the end of the run High pressure continues to hang on with just the threat of a shower in the East as a light Northerly then Westerly drift is present.
In Summary the weather looks set fair across the UK. as always there are exceptions to this general rule and these will affect different areas on different days but as exceptions go they are fairly small in importance reflected in areas of low cloud or sea breezes along with an odd shower. There is still no clear cut indication of an end to the pattern we currently have even given that GFS has firmed up a little on a downturn from the NW in week 2. So all in all still plenty of warm and sunny weather for many to enjoy with any likelihood of rain small and insignificant for the majority.
Originally Posted by: GIBBY