Hi everyone. Here is the report from the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday July 23rd 2013.
All models continue to show a similar pattern between now and the start of next week. In a nutshell the weather is controlled by Low pressure to the West of the UK pulling up warm and humid weather North across the UK. Having said that there will be a lot of dry and fine weather about and in the sunshine it will feel warm. There will also be some rather more unsettled weather with outbreaks of rain tonight and showers in the North tomorrow when thunderstorms become a strong risk again over the North. The main risk of any disruption though is reserved for the weekend and mostly in the SE as a wedge of hot and humid air slides NE coupled with cooler Atlantic air trying to displace it. The net result is an explosive concoction of potentially quite severe storms on Saturday, clearing Sunday in the SE quarter of the UK. The exact track of this event is uncertain at the moment and could affect places further West or maybe further East.
GFS then shows a basic NW/SE pattern developing next week with the North and West being predominently unsettled and cooler with rain at times while the South and East though not immune from rain will see longer dry and warm spells especially in the SE closest to the continuing warmth over southern Europe.
The GFS Ensembles show the weather as being changeable with temperatures returning to the seasonal average as we move past the coming weekend.
The Jet Stream tonight continues to show a migration South of it's recent location with the gradual transition for it to flow across the Atlantic and Southern Britain in a week or so time.
UKMO continues to feed warm and humid air North across the UK early next week too with plenty of dry and bright weather. Low pressure continues to lie out to the SW though, close enough for some showers in the North and West and the very warm continental air is still close enough to the far SE to threaten thundery rain or showers here at times.
GEM looks unsettled next week with rain at times for all though some decnt dry interludes too. The current warmth looks like seaping away to nearer average temperatures as we move deeper into next week.
NAVGEM is also unsettled next week with Low pressure over the North with more Westerly winds rather than the recent Southerlies turning things steadily fresher next week with occasional rain and showers for all.
ECM tonight shows a warm and showery week next week with some sunny spells and occasional showers in warm but light SW winds. Showers would be most prevalent early in the week and in the North and West while the longest dry spells are in the shelered South. Late in the week the weather gets warmer still in the South with a further surge of thundery weather likely to move North across Southern Britain by the start of next weekend.
In Summary tonight the pattern remains a little mixed. The main thing is that it is unlikely to be particularly cold anywhere with average temperatures at worst likely. For much of the time temperatures will be in excess of that with the South and East likely to see some very warm and potentially thundery conditions at times while the North and West are more likely to see some rather cooler air at times with Atlantic fronts bringing occasional rain. When taken as a whole I think a fair assessment is to say that the weather will be reasonable for most over the coming weeks. True the intense heat and clear blue skies of last week are not replicated in any output tonight but there will still be ample spells of very useable summer weather for most with some welcome rain to keep the dust settled and even some possibilities of big storms for the SE with very warm conditions never far away over the Channel.
Originally Posted by: GIBBY