Surreal Express headline tomorrow.

"95F. Heatwave returns today and stays all month"

Hot tomorrow, very warm Friday and warm over weekend and early next week, but Heatwave all month? They just make it up.

Well today is the 31st 😂

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has the thundery plume forecast for next week gone? i have not heard any mention on todays long range forecasts.

Just goes to show......

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Looks like a new record in Shanghai, China on the 26th July reaching 105.1F

http://www.wunderground.com/news/historic-heat-wave-china-july-20130731?cm_ven=fb

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...that BBC graphics for cloud cover are still a bag of ****

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Another day, anther BBC forecast fail?

This morning's national forecast had a high of 19°C here - current temperature is... 19°C. I guess it is possible that it won't warm up in the sunshine from the value at 8:20am? What is even more unlikely IMO is that the forecast temperature of 16°C at 9am will be accurate. Time will tell I guess.

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I really don't know why they had been very poor forecasting wise this summer and last Saturday was the biggest failure when they only put 21C and washout Saturday which turn out around 10C hotter and sunnier.  Same like today if sun come out would reach 30C as the uppers still 15C in early afternoon after droping from near 20C last night which reached it peak at 6pm yesterday.

Doc the national forecast for Scotland from met office/bbc is pants! An undersized perspective of the country on the graphics with a 16 stuck on Aberdeen is the normal fayre! I tend to watch BBC Scotland which for the same day will show a more realistic view. For example today will see 23 in Aberdeen and Edinburgh...its frustrating!

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Well to be fair they did mention that parts of the SE (perhaps E Anglia) might reach 27 or 28°C today.

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Yes they have to put it because yesterday lunch time forecsat put only 23C today and another error on Monday which they put 21C against the mid to near high 20's on the models.

Which models?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn9017.png 

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif 

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Another Met failure then 23c in Aberdeen today.

 

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21c and showery for most tomorrow

N24 19:55

Sunday dry for most 23c , LP moving up from the SW .

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Monday:

Locally heavy rain over much of England, Wales and eastern Scotland will slowly clear eastwards, perhaps not leaving eastern parts until evening. Scattered showers will follow the rain, some heavy.

Tomorrow looks crud for most

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Meto warnings out for rain. Forecasters assessment is interesting:-

A waving frontal zone will remain slow moving across the area before slowly clearing east on Monday,
conditions improving over Wales, NW England and Scotland during the morning, though not till the afternoon further south. 
Rain could turn thundery at times with some intense downpours within the longer spells of rain. 
There is the chance that this warning may be upgraded to amber, especially for SW England.

East Midlands weather goring for a very wet 24hs here with even a chance of thunder!

Upto 50mms possible.

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Met Office app seems to show the rain only really affecting SE parts of Scotland so maybe we'll stay relatively dry here?

The Met Office's own model is to be believed we will catch at least some of the rainfall tomorrow.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/08/04/basis06/ukuk/rsum/13080518_2_0406.gif 

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Met Office Yellow warning of  heavy Rain  Tonight and Monday until 1600 Mon. Afternoon Issued at  16:35  For  South West.....

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Some very heavy rain forecast over MBY tomorrow afternoon, looks a really wet day

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Possible force 9 - 58mph gusts forecast for Cowes this afternoon at 1600. It's Cowes sailing Week so that'll sort out the men from the boys!

Actually, the forecast is for the storm to brew up rather quickly, moving from the southwest, so I hope they have sufficient warning to re-arrange or cancel races.

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could this be due to the Fohn affect though?

 

Just a thought - you are in the east of scotland, and the winds are coming from the south west.

 

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To an extent at times it could be, but the Fohn effect is a well known documented and expected event under prevailing SWies here and should therefore be factored in to the forecasts, unless they are completely automated. They should not be wrong every single day that is not a washout.

It is the fact that they are so predictably incorrect on such a regular basis which highlightes the fact they are falling short of what is expected. Today's high (from a forecast a few minutes ago ) was to be 15°C. It is currently two degrees higher than that. Perhaps cuts have led to a lack of resources, but to also be regularly already incorrect at the time the forecast is broadcast is bordering on inexcusable and at best amateurish.

I can't put my finger on when this drop in standards began but it has persisted for many weeks if not months now and shows no sign of any improvement in quality.

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Personally I think the Met have handled this event rather badly. I know it was always going to be the West and North that got the heaviest rain up to 60mm and no doubt a few upland high ground areas may well of done but come down off those hills and many have had no more than a splash with the main rain belt a good 50-100mls further West than predicted. The push NE of this feature down to the SW has not behaved well imo and it looks as though a large swathe of Southern and Eastern England will have little or no appreciable rain from this with the feature fizzling a death now down to the SW. Could be a few convective local downpours towards the East though as the wind shear is large as it comes into the South this afternoon. 

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