Another wonderful GFS op. stunning outputs! 🤤

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Aye, an American term and it normally refers to a spell of warm weather, typically late October or early November, that occurs after the first 'killing' frosts.   The nearest British equivalent is St Luke's Summer or St Martin's Summer - depending on date.

It is empathically NOT a spell of warm weather in September.   Which is more correctly known as a spell of warm weather in September.   Or, just, late summer.

Good piece here:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-15127159

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

ECM looks for a LP coming down the N Sea

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Words mean whatever common usage says they mean. That's why meanings change. Therefore it not only can be, but might be said now mainly to BE a spell of warm weather in September.

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In the same way we only ever get mini tornadoes in Britain ......

Just because the media are wrong and and the general public misled, doesn't mean we have to sit back and accept it.

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That's certainly been my interpretation.

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Ever since I was a young boy I've heard a warm september referred to as an Indian summer. I don't think it's a particularly technical term, so no need to get technically precious about it.

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Good evening. Here is tonight's view of the 12 midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday August 24th 2013.

All models show that the trough affecting Eastern areas today and the weak warm front close to SW England both sliding away SE overnight. Through the coming few days pressure will become relatively high with light winds mostly from a Northerly source but much lighter than the West saw today. The weather will become largely dry and bright with scattered showers inn the SE, most likely tomorrow. Towards midweek the weather will deteriorate temporarily as a weak front moves SE across all areas with a fizzling band of mostly light rain moving SE through the UK followed by a return of more settled conditions again by Thursday when things turn rather warmer.

GFS then shows High pressure conditions maintained virtually for the remainder of the run with warm and sunny daytime conditions while nights might be a little chilly with some mist and fog patches. Right at the end of the run a chillier Northerly flow is shown following a brief showery phase as High pressure centres itself out in the Atlantic.

The GFS Ensembles show a rise in temperature as we move into the latter end of next week, a pattern sustained then right out to the end of the run. There is little rainfall for the South through the period except by a showery operational at the end. The North sees far greater spread between members with at least a little rain at times too.

The Jet Stream prioritises itself at a position well North of the UK near Iceland or at it's Southernmost point between Scotland and Iceland. All this in endorsement of High pressure over or close to the UK throughout.

UKMO tonight closes it's run with High pressure across the South with a trough moving East over the North. This means South would be best as dry and fine weather prevails with some warm sunshine while the North becomes more cloudy and breezy with some rain.

GEM shows High pressure building across the UK later next week with fine and settled weather for all. Late in the run the High cell retreats West into the Atlantic with an unstable and potentially showery Northerly flow developing by Day 10.

NAVGEM shows High pressure building across the UK from the SW behind the midweek trough with fine and settled weather returning to all areas bar the far North next weekend.

ECM tonight shows a decent second half to the working week as High pressure slips South from the North over Southern Britain. By the weekend a rather chilly NW flow floods down over the UK, especially affecting the North and East with cool NW winds and some showers. The weather then stays better in the South as High pressure remains close by before with more restrictive improvements for the North too as temperatures recover from rather cool status to average values for early September.

In Summary the weather remains in mostly settled mode. Some rogue troughs do spread SE at times with a little rain, such as the one midweek. There will be only small amounts of rain overall, though there is a slowly declining amount of evidence showing particularly warm conditions tonight. Overall though the prospect for some very useable weather is maintained tonight with a hint of Autumn chill at times too either from a cool NW wind or cool and calm misty nights.

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[sn_bsmil] 👍

Picked a decent week to take off.

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So if the media refer to warm weather in September as an Indian Summer (for what, exact reason????) then it's an Indian Summer whatever meteorologists or anyone else must say.  And if the media refer to a tornado in Britain as a mini tornado then it's a mini tornado whatever meteorologists or anyone else might say,  And if the media say Britain was hit by a hurricane in October 1987 then Britian absolutely, without question, was hit by a hurricane in October 1987 ......

Just because you'e been brought up to believe 2 + 2 = 5 doesn't mean you have to have to get all uppitty at those who correctly point out that in fact it equals 4.

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Thanks Martin and for your unbiased views as always.

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What happens if you have a killing frost at the start of September and very warm spell at the end September?

According to Wikipedia it can occur in September

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_summer 

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Gfs looks very good. Is that a hurricane for the U.S.A in fi ?

Based on the 00z op run of the GFS some areas of NW Scotland may not be far off the first part.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn19217.png 

A generally pleasant summery outlook but with the risk if a more autumnal cooler blip in a week or so.

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looks good for the week, hopefully we will soon start to see some lower night temps

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Good morning everyone. Here is the detailed weekly report on the model outputs of GFS, UKMO, The Fax Charts, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday 25th August 2013.

All models show an area of flat synoptic conditions across the UK as Low pressure exits the far SE. With a Northerly tendency for the wind it will be largely dry and bright across the UK apart from a few scattered showers this afternoon. It will feel quite warm in places. Bank Holiday Monday will see a ridge across the UK with fine and dry weather for many with sunny spells. An old upper trough in the SW could give rise to an isolated shower here otherwise a dry bank Holiday Monday is likely for all. Tuesday shows a weak front crossing South over the UK with a band of thick cloud and light rain moving SE too across all areas clearing again in the NW later. This clearance travels SE to all areas Tuesday night and sets up a strong ridge of High pressure across the UK on Wednesday and Thursday with sunny spells and warm conditions for all. By Thursday the ridge will of slipped a little South and progressively cloudier conditions will reach the NW as an increase of Atlantic Westerlies is shown here. The South though should maintain fine and dry conditions until the weekend.

GFS then shows a weak trough sliding South over the UK next weekend with a further band of cloud and light rain, clearing later as cooler air follows down behind it. High pressure is then shown to build strongly over the UK during the course of the following week with warm and sunny conditions likely for all. By midweek the cell elongates north/South down the north sea and eventually Scandinavia allowing more of a Southerly or SE breeze to develop by the second weekend ahead of a trough which moves into the UK and brings some showery rain before we end up where we are now with High pressure NE and SW of the UK killing the trough and leading to quiet and benign conditions to end the run.

The GFS Ensembles show a period of sustained normality in uppers across the South over the coming week while the North sees more variability as weak fronts cross by. The general consensus remains for the weather to remain on the warm side of average in the second half of the output even in the North with little rain in the South throughout though at least some will affect the North at times, especially the far North.

The Jet Stream continues to show the flow riding High over the Atlantic well away from the UK. It does occasionally turn South down over the UK as troughs sink down the North Sea with a slow trend to sink the flow slowly South on a West to East axis towards the UK right at the end of the run.

UKMO today shows High pressure to the West of Ireland with a NW flow over the UK. benign and settled conditions look like continuing towards the South and West though cloud amounts could be quite large at times. The north and East could see cloud thick enough at times to give rise to a little light rain over the far North with temperatures just on the warm side of average in the South and close to average in the North.

The Fax Charts show a trough slipping SE midweek weakening to nothing as it reaches the South with another set approaching NW Britain later in the week. With shallow high pressure close to the South of the UK the weather should be fine away from the NW where a little rain is likely by Thursday. Cloud amounts could be rather large at times as the cloud from the old trough from midweek is likely to be caught up in the airflow but temperatures in the South should remain good.

GEM today shows a vigorous Low developing to the North of Scotland at the end of the week and spreading it's influence towards the South and East over next weekend as winds freshen from the West or NW over all areas. This would inevitably bring cooler conditions first for the North and then for the South too by the end of the run as bands of cloud and rain on Atlantic gradually push further and further South to all areas in association with Atlantic fronts.

NAVGEM today shows pressure falling to the North as well by next weekend with something of a trough making it's way SE across all areas at some point next weekend with at least a little rain in the South and maybe more in the North. It would gradually become cooler everywhere with a freshening West or NW wind especially in the North.

ECM today shows this same deep Low up to the North of the UK at the end of the week before it sinks SE down the North Sea with an Autumnally cool  and strong NW flow affecting the North and East next weekend with showers in places with even the South and west seeing a notable drop in temperatures for a time. ECM then redeems the situation at the start of the week that follows with High pressure building across the UK again with fine and warm weather returning for all with chilly and misty nights likely.

In Summary today there is a mish-mash of outputs this morning. If it's fine weather your after then GEM isn't for you as it's the most extreme in bringing cooler and almost Autumnal conditions across the UK next weekend and the following week as it shows the Jet stream pulled South. All other output does indicate the chance of a deep Low developing to the North of the UK by next weekend with ECM too bringing this into play for the UK too with cool and strong NW winds and showers for a time next weekend as it moves it down the North Sea. There is then some redemption for fine weather fans thereafter as both GFS and ECM bring High pressure back across the UK with fine and sunny weather developing for all with warm days and chilly, misty nights. It has been a trend over the past few days for the models to move away from the mouth watering charts of a few days ago with days of endless blues skies the only prospect to something more moderate in nature but in all honesty there remains a lot of dry and fine weather still to be enjoyed in today's output, especially if you live towards the South and SW. We just have to be prepared to expect more cloud and a little rain now and again and realise to ourselves that we are now entering the Autumn season so must expect some rather cooler weather at times when some rain is possible and the ever darkening mornings and evenings that are gathering apace.

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Thank you Martin.

 

Although still a dryish spell it does mean some fog is possible ....

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Morning All-

A slight hint of irony for the SE over the last day- just 7 days ago the models were predicting a stunning BHol weeked, & when it lands - it rained for 24 hours solid here- With I guess around 50mm accumulations-

he much touted & over ramped heatwave ( media ) actually amounted to very little, a couple of nice days replaced by the rain on Friday- Overall though for the country not to bad- but nothing ot write home about-

A swing in the models in the last 24 hours most notably the ECM to the first Autumnal blast from the NW, the GFS is all at sea as usual- nothing changes there-

Indian summer- well september is on our doorstep, so its not really an indian summer anyway, however as september opens it looks wet & windy especially for the N & NW....

 

S

Tbh its been a good summer whatever happens now. Whilst I'm happy with useable weather at any time of year, we've done well to remain fairly calm so far, especially as August really can be the onset of autumn in synoptic terms. We're approaching September and its  stark contrasts, year on year and I wouldn't want to call that at this point but I'm looking forward to the autumn storms and the convective influence of the English Channel....but thats for later

 

Is that all from one stand alone tenuous unsupported ECM run? I don't see anything but a dry settled start to september and generally a continuation of as it is now. I'm currently looking out at blue skies and temperatures should once again hit 24C here. Its been one of the best summers in years for most, and considering the bank holiday lasts for three sometimes four days for a few, some welcome summer rain, making way for more lovely summer weather today and tomorrow would class as a very good UK bank holiday weekend. What is very welcome, is that there is no sign of an early autumn, in fact a prolonged settled dry warm spell looks almost odds on.....

unsupported apart from saturdays 00z gem, saturdays's 12z ecm, today's 00z gem and gfs plus the ens spreads. i think an interuption to the settled conditions can be expected, moreso the further ne you are.

 

I suppose its what you class as supported. I personally wouldn't call 00z Gem support. Overall, at the very worst it could be a couple of days of a nw then back to the status quo. 

did anyone say otherwise RC ?

an interruption to the generally settled conditions. (as this weekend has seen)

Wonderful output again this morning for here and many others 😁

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn17417.png

Will feel chilly in  parts of the North

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