Good evening. Here is tonight's view of the 12 midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday August 24th 2013.
All models show that the trough affecting Eastern areas today and the weak warm front close to SW England both sliding away SE overnight. Through the coming few days pressure will become relatively high with light winds mostly from a Northerly source but much lighter than the West saw today. The weather will become largely dry and bright with scattered showers inn the SE, most likely tomorrow. Towards midweek the weather will deteriorate temporarily as a weak front moves SE across all areas with a fizzling band of mostly light rain moving SE through the UK followed by a return of more settled conditions again by Thursday when things turn rather warmer.
GFS then shows High pressure conditions maintained virtually for the remainder of the run with warm and sunny daytime conditions while nights might be a little chilly with some mist and fog patches. Right at the end of the run a chillier Northerly flow is shown following a brief showery phase as High pressure centres itself out in the Atlantic.
The GFS Ensembles show a rise in temperature as we move into the latter end of next week, a pattern sustained then right out to the end of the run. There is little rainfall for the South through the period except by a showery operational at the end. The North sees far greater spread between members with at least a little rain at times too.
The Jet Stream prioritises itself at a position well North of the UK near Iceland or at it's Southernmost point between Scotland and Iceland. All this in endorsement of High pressure over or close to the UK throughout.
UKMO tonight closes it's run with High pressure across the South with a trough moving East over the North. This means South would be best as dry and fine weather prevails with some warm sunshine while the North becomes more cloudy and breezy with some rain.
GEM shows High pressure building across the UK later next week with fine and settled weather for all. Late in the run the High cell retreats West into the Atlantic with an unstable and potentially showery Northerly flow developing by Day 10.
NAVGEM shows High pressure building across the UK from the SW behind the midweek trough with fine and settled weather returning to all areas bar the far North next weekend.
ECM tonight shows a decent second half to the working week as High pressure slips South from the North over Southern Britain. By the weekend a rather chilly NW flow floods down over the UK, especially affecting the North and East with cool NW winds and some showers. The weather then stays better in the South as High pressure remains close by before with more restrictive improvements for the North too as temperatures recover from rather cool status to average values for early September.
In Summary the weather remains in mostly settled mode. Some rogue troughs do spread SE at times with a little rain, such as the one midweek. There will be only small amounts of rain overall, though there is a slowly declining amount of evidence showing particularly warm conditions tonight. Overall though the prospect for some very useable weather is maintained tonight with a hint of Autumn chill at times too either from a cool NW wind or cool and calm misty nights.
Originally Posted by: GIBBY