Hi everyone. Here is this morning's account of the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday October 2nd 2013.
All models show a warm South to SE feed across the UK between High pressure over Europe and Low pressure to the West and SW. A trough of Low pressure is clearing North and East over Eastern and Central areas with a brighter and more showery interlude before another active frontal feature carries heavy and thundery rain North and somewhat East through the day tomorrow. Winds then turn to a briefly cooler and fresher Westerly with showers before pressure builds from the SW in time for the weekend which looks largely dry and bright with some warm sunshine in light winds with a little cloud and rain along with a moderate SW breeze in the far NW.
GFS then shows High pressure slipping steadily East but maintains a ridge towards the north of the UK which allows some unseasonably warm surface air to waft over the South of the UK from a warm Continent. With a short sea track in the South there should be plenty of warm sunshine by day but if mist and fog forms overnight it could become stubborn to clear in the morning's which would result in lower temperatures. Little rain is expected next week for nearly all areas away from the far NW and SW later as a cut off Low down near the Azores may throw a few showers ahead of it and then more generally North and East across all areas late in the run as temperatures fall somewhat.
UKMO points to a dry spell too next week as the weekend High slips towards SE Europe but maintains a ridge across the UK with the same continental feed as GFS shows keeping conditions bright and warm for the time of year with little chance of rain.
GEM is slightly less straightforward though the basic pattern is similar with the difference be that a pocket of unstable air feeds in from the West into the flow and gives the South and west the risk of a few showers at some stage early next week before the SE flow develops in response to High pressure to the East sliding further SE late in the run.
NAVGEM is less supportive of a SE feed next week instead keeping winds from a SW point which would be a good deal cloudier with Low pressure close to the NW for a time. Some rain could be expected towards the North and West while Southern areas stay dry and mild though less so than some of the other output. At the end of the run High pressure to the SE throws a ridge NW with fine and dry weather for all with mist and fog at night likely should it verify.
ECM today is a little slower in developments with a SW flow and some rain in the NW early next week before High pressure to the SE is superseded by High pressure to the NE with a ridge South from it's centre allowing a exceptionally warm SE feed up across the UK from the Med. It would become very warm in the South with sunny spells though as with GFS it is all dependant on whether fog formation is limited by night. If it is not then clearances of this each morning could become slow and arduous making a big dent in the temperatures where it stays foggy, misty or cloudy.
The GFS Ensembles mostly continue with a warm and quite dry outlook with the South seeing most of the dry conditions beyond this week. Only a handful of members opt for anything cooler with the mean for the period keeping the warm side of average for nearly all areas throughout. The operational and Control runs both were milder outliers in the latter stages of the run, maintained in the South.
The Jet Stream today is blowing over Northern France. It weakens and turns North over the next few days before breaking up and then realigning to the NW of the British Isles as the High pressure develops close to SE Britain at the weekend. It then continues to blow in this general region well away from the UK and maintaining the UK on it's warm side.
In Summary today it looks almost like an extension to Summer from the synoptic pattern this morning. We must not be carried away though by the prospect of fine, settled and unseasonably warm weather next week as such conditions are fraught with danger in October in the shape of mist, fog and low cloud which if forms can be stubborn to clear and give a completely different complexion to the conditions and temperatures. However, as shown with a short sea feed to the SE the SE wind would be quite dry and would give us our best shot of seeing some very warm sunny spells and unseasonably high temperatures especially in the South and West. There are few other factors shown this morning that could spoil what will be yet another dry and fine spell with only the far NW and SW possibly at risk of a few showers at times as the High erodes late in the output period. Once again the absence of any major depressions and accompanying strong winds is all too obvious this morning so Autumn as we used to know it remains on hold this morning.
Transcript taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset