http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10817.png

Log burner at the ready

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Just a few days ago all the models were going for a warm week ahead but what a turn around in the last couple of days!

Chilly from late Wednesday onwards with temps barely into the low teens and some showers about in the east from Thursday onwards.

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Otoh, genuinely without being contrary just putting a pov, it could be asked who, or what, else predicted this sudden really quite dramatic change several days out? One thing models seem to do rather well is spot the major or dramatic. Years ago the models saw the '87 storm and the 'braer' storms way out, and as I remember they picked up on the Nov 2010 cold spell in good time as well. What we need to remember is they don't do pin point.

change may have been over played by ecm it seems a little more unsure the more u look this morning.

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!132!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2013100512!!/

some are not far off what little gfs was offering a day or 2 ago.

Key seems to be  how much the trough develops to our east some members dont devlope it at all and some are very confused upon location

this cool spell might be just a passing shot the mean does not look to bad the further north u are.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1441.html

if you look at both the amplication signal to our east still loosks quite week at day 10

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

so really all to play for

 

 

Yes indeed so Tuesday would be the last day for 20C which could be the last 20C for this year.  So far looking good in here to next weekend with lot of sunshine but cooler temps by next weekend with risk of ground frosts here. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1681.gif

Also look good mean for Sunday nationwide which the most likely outcome as few days ago when I last checked that we have a strong HP over us.  It always the case when models did rightly predicted it at FI then went over the top at mid range only to turn back to where it was in reliable range.  My gut feeling that it will get cooler mid week but still settled and dry everywhere next weekend as any LP over the continent will move away east due ot normal W-E flow.

That colder blip on Wednsday/Thursday did seem to come out of the blue. IIRC it was one of the ECM op runs that suddenly went for that scenario a couple of days ago when no previous run had shown such a picture. They all then proceeded to switch to that cool anticylonic northerly for this coming Wed/ Thursday.

Compared with the current mild conditions this will be a bit of a shock to the system up here:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn783.png 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2013/10/06/basis06/ukuk/rart/13100912_2_0606.gif 

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The CFS actually picked up on this upcoming spell of weather in its monthly anomalies much better than the GFS did. The argument RE the CFS is flawed anyway as the CFS aims to give a broad brush stroke of the likely long wave pattern in any given month rather than adding local detail to proceedings. This gives it an advantage with long range forecasting. The aim of the CFS isn't to predict an individual shortwave at 2000+ hours and to use it in this way would of course proove fruitless.

My post RE GFS ensembles from the other forum & snippet about CFS:

You can't spot a trend in the ensembles if there isn't one. It's all or nothing- i.e complete agreement for 5/6 runs (you'd think the outlook was fairly certain) and then a complete flip in the next set.

 

In this instance, it would be reasonable to expect that one of the perturbations would have picked up on the pattern for the coming week- there must have been a good chance of this with the alterations to each separate perturbation to account for error. But no, not one picked up the actual pattern which to me suggests that there is a flaw in the algorithms somewhere which is only corrected once the period in question comes into a certain range where the model can't fail to pick up the correct pattern.

 

At 120-168 hours out NWP in this day and age should at least be able to project the general long wave pattern- and if not the scenario should be in the ensemble suite. Neither of these things happened.

 

It could also be argued the CFS (yes the CFS!) did a better job at hinting at the scenario which will play out this week. The monthly anomalies pointing towards HP being situated further N for October than the Euro high the GFS wanted. It's saying something when a long range model is picking out the pattern with more accuracy than its short-medium range sibling.

 

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528 thickness there Doc. That's cold.

 

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013100612/ECM1-168.GIF?06-0

That's some serious blocking setting up across the higher latitudes. The only thing that stopped GFS from following suit was too much energy in the Atlantic, and we know how that tends to go...

It's been one of those GEFS mishaps over the past 48 hours ago; back on Friday evening the signal was for exceptional warmth to dominate until mid-month at least. Not one run dipped as far as 0°C prior to 17th October!

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Hi everyone. After a splendid early October day more reminiscent of early September than October here in the West Country here is the report on the future prospects for the UK as offered by GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM's 12 noon output for today Sunday October 6th 2013.

All models are in strong support on a change in conditions soon after midweek. In the meantime a SW flow carries a lot of cloud and some rain at times to the North and West, heavy in the far NW tonight and tomorrow. It will be reasonably mild but breezy here. In the South and East the sunshine of today will gradually give way to cloudier conditions tomorrow and Tuesday when a little rain sinks South. High pressure then builds to the West of the UK allowing a cold front to move South introducing much colder air with sunshine and showers, these chiefly in the East innitially and then towards the SE by next weekend when winds could become cold, fresh and raw from the NE while NW Britain seeing quieter and colder skies by night with some frost and patchy fog.

GFS then keeps changeable conditions across the UK for the remainder of the run with further Low pressure feeding in from the West through Week 2 with all areas seeing rain or showers at times in fresh to strong winds at times in temperatures close to average.

UKMO shows High pressure close to NE Scotland next weekend with an Easterly flow across the South somewhat lighter than the previous day. Dry and fine weather would affect most places with frost and patchy fog possible at night. The chance of a few showers in the extreme SE at the weekend does remain however.

GEM shows much more ingress of Low pressure from the SE into the UK next weekend with strong winds and rain slowly giving way to drier and quieter conditions at the start of the new week as temperatures slowly lift towards average levels if not slightly above in a Southerly flow to end the run.

NAVGEM tonight shows a cool and quiet end to it's run with light winds and bright weather bit with an increasing risk of mist and fog at night as well as frost too in places all this following a showery weekend in the South and SE.

ECM shows Low pressure having travelled South over Western Europe through the week then turn West over France next weekend before filling it's way NE thereafter bringing a cool and showery spell to the South with a distinctly cool feeling Easterly breeze. Northern areas next weekend will be dry and fine under High pressure close to NE Scotland with mist, fog and frost all probable by night. The end of the run shows fairly quiet weather with some dry and bright weather around with the odd shower with mist and fog issues at night possible before a strengthening Southerly flow in association with Low pressure edging in from the West renews the risk of rain again.

The GFS Ensembles shows a cold snap later this week before a slow rise in uppers to above average levels, especially to the North looks likely. This translates down to the surface with average temperatures and occasional rain from the end of the wetter spell in the SE next weekend.

The Jet Stream shows the flow turning South across the UK midweek and setting up a circulation near SE Britain at the end of the week and weekend. this then dissolves as the main Jet flow takes control in an undulating North and South pattern near the British Isles in Week 2.

In Summary the basic concept of the weather turning colder from midweek is pretty much nailed on now. What isn't quite so certain as yet is how much Low pressure over the other side of the Channel influences things in South and SE Britain next weekend. Some models indicate very little while other suggest some more prolonged rainfall as well as showers in rather cold conditions. Things do tidy up later in the outputs as it appears the general consensus is for temperatures to recover somewhat through Week 2 though this comes at risk of rain moving in off the Atlantic in a strengthening South wind.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

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A seasonal first tonight with the Weather For The Week Ahead forecast mentioning wind-chill temperatures for the East after mid-week. What a shock to the system this will be!

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Latest ensembles show uppers going down to -1C so it look like a dry northerly followed by dry weekend with temps rising to average.

Hi Stormchaser!,

Knowing that the Sun has been very quiet this July Aug Sept period and this October I shall return after a long break from this discussion.



Amen,

Well the UK Model Interpretation from now to all upto 11th and as far as 13th October looking quite Autumnal with A great Jet Stream Disruption in place.

I am sure those of us waiting for chilly arctic air and wetter windy Autumnastic-tastical UK North Atlantic Retrogression set up and this bring cool Arctic Low over UK East Central and Southeast UK is much awaited and the UKMO done much better than the slower GFS Model in bringing this Retrogression of Azores High.

Three long Summer Weather months of repetitive UK dry High Pressure dominated weather- gives way to some heavy blustery rain and thunder hail showers from Wednesday 9th October 2013.

I am very excited for the new weather pattern for October 2013- some clear nights and some ground frosts for those sheltered further west and In NW Central inc. UK parts under the high but lot of windy and cool showery weather is forecasted for the East and the SE of United Kingdom this coming week.

It will certainly be noticeable more in London than for those in N. Ireland and Wales or Western UK- the high pressure looks set over them.

Over the last 3 months the heavy rain events wer're well spaced out and less often too wet it has been often above average temperatures for much of the UK and often Azores High than major Low Pressure- Wetter it was away from London for those in SW Western Central and North NE areas- often London and Central Southern SE England has been much warmer sunnier and drier.

I keep up checking the GFS and the UKMO - the change in weather setup synoptically is worth speaking up about in this coming week and I am happy being in middle of this Synoptic North Atlantic and West to North Europe sequence of upcoming cool near average Autumn Weather- the Bracknell fax charts have made me so excited and so I say UKMO has led GFS for next weeks pattern- GFS is playing the follower.

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Good to see you out of hibernation Laiq Hope you've had a decent summer

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013100700/ECH1-216.GIF?07-12

Impressive Siberian PV extending into Scandinavia on the ECM 00z op run - a classic setup for intense winter cold, but not remotely close to that when it's mid-October. Still fascinating nonetheless

GFS keeps higher heights across Scandinavia as the Atlantic energy pushes a bit further east and supports that downstream ridge. The Atlantic trough to the west then dominates in a similar fashion to what we saw last week. Later on an impressive block builds across Greenland but the orientation is no use to us, with the trough continuing to keep it mild but unsettled.

If ECM has a better handle on this out to day 10, GFS FI will at least have to back the Atlantic trough further west.

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Going by the GFS's output for this weekend, if it is mid-January right now, this forum would have gone into total meltdown!
  But what's the betting that we are never going to see this kind of set up come the winter anyway?

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Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday October 7th 2013.

All models show a change in the weather this week as the mild SW flow covering the UK in the next few days switches to a much colder North or NE flow late in the week with High pressure than close to the North or NW. While the weather remains mild the rather cloudy SW flow will deliver some rain at times to the North sinking South tomorrow. Thereafter brighter and colder conditions from the North will introduce the risk of frost in the North overnight and some showers in strong winds to the East and SE at the end of the week.

GFS then continues the unsettled theme for the South while the North maintain largely dry and rather cool weather over the weekend. Through next week the unsettled weather in the South is shown to extend further North accentuated by new Low pressure feeding in from off the Atlantic to give all areas a changeable pattern with rain at times and temperatures recovering a little at least for a time.

UKMO this morning shows High pressure drifting NE over Northern scotland next weekend with an Easterly flow across the South which would be rather cloudy and cool with some occasional rain likely while the North would stay dry with some clear or sunny intervals especially in the NW where some overnight fog and patchy frost could occur.

GEM also shows an GFS type pattern with Low pressure near the South next weekend pushing it's influence further North as we enter the new week with rain at times and temperatures near average at best. The weather is then shown to become tranquil with light winds, a lot of misty low cloud with the chance of further mostly light rain and drizzle scattered about especially in the West and South.

NAVGEM shows a slack Easterly flow across Britain at the end of the weekend with a filling Low to the South still allowing some patchy rain or drizzle in the South in what looks like largely cloudy skies for most of the UK and temperatures close to average at best.

ECM too shows an unsettled weekend in the South as low pressure from Europe rests across Southern England at the start of next week. Cloud, showers or more persistent rain could affect the South, some of which could be heavy and thundery in temperatures hels at normal values if not a little below. The North stays dry and potentially quite bright, especially towards the NW. The end of the run this morning shows High pressure making something of  a comeback ridging down from the North holding the Atlantic at bay with fine, settled and bright weather returning with fog an issue should this pattern evolve. 

The GFS Ensembles show a cooler snap before temperatures are shown to recover to nearer normal values in more changeable conditions than currently in the South with the North though having a dry period late in the week joining in with the more unsettled regime next week.

The Jet Stream shows the flow to the NW splitting in the week with a portion extending South over Britain midweek feeding the Low cell near SE England later in the week. The mainflow will then realign across the Atlantic absorbing the weaker circulation in the SE whule a second arm lies way way North of the UK. The Southern arm is then shown undecided in its position next week.

In Summary the weather looks like changing firstly to a colder pattern from midweek with some showers in the East before this shower risk transfers to Southern areas by the weekend while the North close to High pressure to the North stays dry and rather chilly with some mist, fog and frost possible at night. Then through the second half of this morning's outputs most models show developments in the Atlantic could have an effect on conditions over the UK later with the risk of some rain or showers extending to all areas next week though still with some dry and benign weather around too. Also shown is a return to somewhat less chilly conditions as winds look like settling more from the South or SW.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

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Thanks Martin..

 

All been waiting for a change..Soon returning to average ..Maybe just above in the long run. 

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impressive cold pattern from ecm

 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=0&map=1&archive=0

 

 

upper trough shift west and ridge to pole and grenny winter bits in n/e europe.

 strong signal

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 needs watching for early uk cold .

Still on course for a chilly and changeable tbeme from Wednesday onwards.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1442.png

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 very intresting trends  yd has put the switch on.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=174&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=0

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=180&mode=1&nh=1&archive=0

 

It wouldn't be impressive by Jan because if we seeing 11C here and 10C over your side on Saturday under dry overcast conditoins when mid-Oct average around 15C, it would resulted only less cold 2C and 1C over your side under same conditions.

 

UKMO is the pick of the bunch for more realistic outcome as all northerlies in the past always have a HP toppling over us as LP move off to Europe that give Greece a much colder snowier northerlies than us.  UKMO stand on it foot on this pleasant outcome when other big 2 going for more overcast and dry conditions which is a waste of time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

But look closer Jires in this view strong hints of retrogression a signal for a threat of a notable cold outbreak from the inform ukmo.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021

 

Yes is very unusual to see this easterly set-up in October which a month is so rare to get it.  Main thing that it looking dry this weekend here on all the models output with France and Benelux countries get cold rain/showers.

I don't think that there would be dry weather in the South and SE Jiries in any model other than UKMO this morning and the GFS Ensembles for London endorse this fully.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

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