Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday October 7th 2013.
All models show a change in the weather this week as the mild SW flow covering the UK in the next few days switches to a much colder North or NE flow late in the week with High pressure than close to the North or NW. While the weather remains mild the rather cloudy SW flow will deliver some rain at times to the North sinking South tomorrow. Thereafter brighter and colder conditions from the North will introduce the risk of frost in the North overnight and some showers in strong winds to the East and SE at the end of the week.
GFS then continues the unsettled theme for the South while the North maintain largely dry and rather cool weather over the weekend. Through next week the unsettled weather in the South is shown to extend further North accentuated by new Low pressure feeding in from off the Atlantic to give all areas a changeable pattern with rain at times and temperatures recovering a little at least for a time.
UKMO this morning shows High pressure drifting NE over Northern scotland next weekend with an Easterly flow across the South which would be rather cloudy and cool with some occasional rain likely while the North would stay dry with some clear or sunny intervals especially in the NW where some overnight fog and patchy frost could occur.
GEM also shows an GFS type pattern with Low pressure near the South next weekend pushing it's influence further North as we enter the new week with rain at times and temperatures near average at best. The weather is then shown to become tranquil with light winds, a lot of misty low cloud with the chance of further mostly light rain and drizzle scattered about especially in the West and South.
NAVGEM shows a slack Easterly flow across Britain at the end of the weekend with a filling Low to the South still allowing some patchy rain or drizzle in the South in what looks like largely cloudy skies for most of the UK and temperatures close to average at best.
ECM too shows an unsettled weekend in the South as low pressure from Europe rests across Southern England at the start of next week. Cloud, showers or more persistent rain could affect the South, some of which could be heavy and thundery in temperatures hels at normal values if not a little below. The North stays dry and potentially quite bright, especially towards the NW. The end of the run this morning shows High pressure making something of a comeback ridging down from the North holding the Atlantic at bay with fine, settled and bright weather returning with fog an issue should this pattern evolve.
The GFS Ensembles show a cooler snap before temperatures are shown to recover to nearer normal values in more changeable conditions than currently in the South with the North though having a dry period late in the week joining in with the more unsettled regime next week.
The Jet Stream shows the flow to the NW splitting in the week with a portion extending South over Britain midweek feeding the Low cell near SE England later in the week. The mainflow will then realign across the Atlantic absorbing the weaker circulation in the SE whule a second arm lies way way North of the UK. The Southern arm is then shown undecided in its position next week.
In Summary the weather looks like changing firstly to a colder pattern from midweek with some showers in the East before this shower risk transfers to Southern areas by the weekend while the North close to High pressure to the North stays dry and rather chilly with some mist, fog and frost possible at night. Then through the second half of this morning's outputs most models show developments in the Atlantic could have an effect on conditions over the UK later with the risk of some rain or showers extending to all areas next week though still with some dry and benign weather around too. Also shown is a return to somewhat less chilly conditions as winds look like settling more from the South or SW.
Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset