No heating required in the barren wastes of Cumbria either, well not in my house. Neighbour has had his heating on all month however, depends on age and thickness of jumper.

Despite the forecasts of mild weather its been stuck around 11/12c most days past week or so, only yesterday when it crept up to 15c - monthly mean running at +1.8c above normal.

Looking forward to more seasonal weather - good storm would be good followed by a plunging cold front.   Looking at the models I may have to wait a while.

You mean if it's got a few holes in it?

Half way through autumn now and it feels fairly normal with a little of everything.  I agree that a nice active cold front pushing through would be good - that sharp contrast of mild to wet and windy to cooler and sunny is always worth waiting for.

Good evening. Here is the report on the midday outputs from the regular five of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday October 20th 2013.

All models show a very unsettled week to come with Low pressure in total control of the UK weather positioned close to Western and later Southern Britain. There will be spells of heavy rain most llikely across the West tomorrow and the South on Thursday. Through the remainder of the time showers are more likely with some very heavy showers with thunder possible at times. Winds will often be fresh to strong from the South with gales in places but all areas will stay mild with temperatures well above average until late in the week when cooler conditions might slip down from the NW.

GFS then shows very changeable weather through Week 2 with alternating wet and fair weather with temperatures up and down somewhat too day to day.. Winds would be blowing from the West or SW at times but occasionally NW through the colder moments.

UKMO tonight concludes it's run next weekend with a filling Low pressure area over Eastern England ahead of a weak ridge approaching Western Britain. Cloud and remaining showers would die away through Saturday with a drier interlude before it looks like further troughs will spill in from the West later on Sunday with further wind and rain in temperatures close to average.

GEM tonight shows a stormy end to its run as a very deep Autumn storm winds up to the North of Scotland with gale or severe gale force winds, squally heavy showers and cooler weather than of late with some snow on Scottish mountains in the showers. At the very end of the run a new intense Low looks set to keep the stormy weather going for all of the British Isles.

NAVGEM shows a weak ridge crossing East next week too with a drier and cooler interlude ahead of some more rain at times on inward coming Atlantic troughs. With high pressure closer to the South than of late the South would probably see lighter rain than elsewhere.

ECM tonight shows a windy and changeable weekend and after a drier interlude further rain and strong wind is ushered in from the West across Britain by Low pressure to the North. Towards the end of the run an increased risk of storminess is shown as some powerful depressions cross the Atlantic to end close to the NW.

The GFS Ensembles show mild weather in place this week with rain at times before temperatures fall back towards the seasonal average but with continuing changeable weather with rain at times along with strong winds.

The Jet Stream remains well South across the Atlantic and sweeping NE across the UK for the coming week or so with small signs of a drift Northwards somewhat in Week 2 when it becomes notably strong.

In Summary there is little change tonight in the overall sequence of events with a mild or very mild week to come with a lot of rain at times especially towards the SW and West. Late in the weekend and next weekend signs of a window of drier and cooler weather are still evident before a return to unsettled and occasionally windy weather returns this time with temperatures much closer to the seasonal average.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

Thanks Martin.

Unsettled if not very unsettled picture this morning with bands of heavy rain or showers and gales or severe gales becoming an added factor especially next week.

Temps though look like returning to much more seasonal average.

Good morning. Here is the morning review of the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday October 21st 2013.

All models continue to show a very unsettled period to come. Through this week Low pressure remains close to or over the West and NW of the UK with very mild South or SW winds. There will be spells of rain at times, notably tomorrow as a potentially vigorous trough moves slowly East carrying some heavy and thundery rain as it goes, all this following today's more sporadic but still occasionally heavy rainfall, especially in the West. Behind the old front Wednesday will see more in the way of brightness with rainfall falling in the form of heavy showers perhaps heavy locally with thunder. Later in the week a new Low moves NE from the SW over Britain with further spells of wet weather before at the very end of the week and more likely into the first half of the weekend cooler and fresher NW winds look like sweeping South across Britain and as pressure rises briefly a window of fine weather is possible at some point through the weekend, especially in the South.

GFS makes little of this improvement with the weather remaining unsettled and windy throughout the latter part of next week and certainly through the week that follows as very potent storm systems cross the Atlantic on a very strong Jet Stream and wind up to the North of the UK bringing gale or severe gale force winds at times with fast moving spells of rain and heavy, squally showers, all this at it's worst in the North and West but not exclusively so. Temperatures would of fallen back from this week's very mild values with average levels more likely and with colder uppers over the North at times, showers could turn wintry over the hills at times. Very late in the run another brief colder and brighter period looks possible as a temporary ridge collapses SE over the UK with frost likely on at least one night before milder air returns to the NW later.

UKMO shows next Sunday shows a broad Westerly flow across the UK with a band of rain and drizzle moving East across the UK. The strong winds will ensure that temperatures remain on the mild side of average into next week, though not as mild as currently.

GEM also shows very changeable and oftn windy weather as we move through next week as Low pressure continue to feed into UK airspace from the Atlantic. Spells of rain and showers would be inevitable for all driven on by a brisk and often strong West or SW wind. Temperatures are also shown somewhat lower than recently across the UK at times with the chance of wintry showers over the Northern hills later next week but in general temperatures would still hold close to average.

NAVGEM too shows trough laden Westerly winds as we move into next week with rain and showers at times in temperatures close to average for late October.

ECM shows some very windy and wet weather potential next week as very deep Low pressure crosses East North of Britain. Later in the latter stages of it's run improvements do take shape as a ridge crosses East damping down the rain and showers and allowing a short window of dry and bright weather, especially across the South with the chance of a frost and the odd patch of fog midweek.

The GFS Ensembles show the general understanding between the members this morning is for unsettled and often windy weather to persist over the UK for some considerable time to come. Temperatures will fall back towards the October average next week but with little sign of any significant dry and cold weather to grace our shores anytime soon.

The Jet Stream remains the focal point for all this unsettled weather as it continues to cross the Atlantic and then over the vicinity of the British Isles for the next 10 days at least.

In Summary it's more of the same from the models this morning as the next two weeks look more than likely to continue unsettled, windy and wet at times. Some windows of drier and brighter weather are shown but they look unlikely to last more than 24-48hrs in any one place before the Low pressure conveyor belt returns. Temperatures, while mild or even rather warm at times this week look certain to fall back to more average levels next week and in any of the drier spells a grass frost is just about possible but with the winds often strong with gales at times only areas with good shelter, even under clear skies would experience this. Once again this morning there is little sign of this pattern being removed soon as the Jet stream continues to be strong and positioned at a latitude that puts the UK in the firing line of further Lows and fronts.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

Thank you Martin for the damp output..Better than a cold outlook.

Your "NEW " Farmers  7 Day Forecast is great....

Thanks for your kind words.

Not a brilliant prospect for Guy Fawkes night. But thanks all the same

What a lot of dross!

Agreed, absolute crap

A wet Idian summer

I wonder what the water tables are looking like?  Wont be long before theyre brimming.  Some heavy falls of rain in the uk recently - with no real let up insight.

Hi all

Here's today's video update - Looking For Some Cold Weather;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Looks like mid to late November could be when things change course - Similar to November 2005 perhaps?

Video goes out to Christmas for the first time BTW.

Good stuff Gav

White Xmas then   JFF

 Thanks Gavin.

Thanks Gavin

Like those big sub-zero numbers over Norway ready to pounce on us in the New Year perhaps ?

Thanks Gavin

I've noticed higher than normal polar strat. temps of late, so I'm starting to wonder if we'll see a strong PV for the first half of November which then blows apart for the second half as warming propogates down from above.

Nov-Dec 2010 might get referenced a lot if we start to see signs of that in a few weeks time!

I think Nov/Dec 2005 might be a better "fit" than 2010, which was/is at the very extreme end of whats possible in this country.

Funny thing is it has already changed lol, good to watch for the few hours anyhow

Good evening everyone. Here is the report on the midday outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday October 21st 2013.

All models show the unsettled and mid theme lasting throughout this week and the weekend. In the next 4-5 days mild weather will persist as all models show Low pressure continuing to feed NE to the West of the UK pulling warm and very moist Southerly winds over Britain with spells of heavy rain and showers off and on for the rest of the week. By the weekend winds will veer more towards the West and temperatures will fall back somewhat but the weather looks like remaining windy and unsettled with rain and showers at times.

GFS then leads us into a stormy spell early next week as an intense Low moves East to the North of Scotland driving Westerly gales and heavy rain and showers and it will be chilly enough for some sleet or snow showers on Northern mountains. Thereafter things stay very changeable and chillier than of late with Low pressure becoming cut off near Southern England maintaining cloudy and rainy weather here while the North has a drier and colder interlude with night frosts possible. The end of the run becomes windy and unsettled again for all as the Atlantic regains control.

UKMO tonight shows a belt of low pressure to the North of Britain next weekend with strong West or WSW winds bringing troughs quickly East through all of Britain with outbreaks of rain or showers at times in temperatures back to the seasonal average.

GEM shows a very unsettled period next week with strong and rather colder winds bringing showers and longer spells of rain across the UK with some snow on Northern hills and mountains. Late in the run a vigorous depression rushes NE  into Southern Britain with potentially storm force winds and heavy rain for a time soon after midweek while the North stays rather colder and showery.

NAVGEM too is deeply unsettled next week with slacker winds than of late but much cooler conditions with some heavy showers with hail and thunder a common feature of the weather between short sunny or clear intervals.

ECM starts next week windy and unsettled with rain and showers clearing SE so that by midweek a weak High pressure area slips SE across Britain with dry and bright weather when, if skies stay clear at night a frost may occur. The run ends with High pressure having bloomed over The Baltic States with a SE flow over Britain with mostly dry and fine weather if rather chilly with the chance of overnight mist, fog and frost patches.

The GFS Ensembles continue to show a very unsettled and often wet two weeks to come. After the mid weather of this week eases away rather chillier air arrives at the weekend and lasts through next week. Thereafter, average temperatures will ensue with rain and strong winds a common feature for all.

The Jet Stream continues to blow strongly over or just to the South of the UK over the coming week and probably longer. 

In Summary tonight there is still plenty of support for a prolonged period of unsettled weather with rain and strong winds the main features of the period. Low pressure looks destined to push NE to the West of Britain before pulling Eastwards to the North of Britain next week with strong and cooler Westerly winds on there Southern flank. It would be amiss of me not to mention the Day 10 chart of ECM tonight with it's large High forming rapidly to the ENE of Britain by midweek next week which of it were to verify would put a different slant on the weather. However, in view of it's isolation I have a feeling it will not be supported within it's ensemble group later and will probably of gone on the midnight run.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

GFS and GEM both serve up some incredibly volatile charts at differing times next week. Widespread Severe gales would be on offer should they verify.

One to watch. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.png

Tight isobars , damaging winds