Good evening. Here is the report on the midday outputs from the regular five of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday October 20th 2013.
All models show a very unsettled week to come with Low pressure in total control of the UK weather positioned close to Western and later Southern Britain. There will be spells of heavy rain most llikely across the West tomorrow and the South on Thursday. Through the remainder of the time showers are more likely with some very heavy showers with thunder possible at times. Winds will often be fresh to strong from the South with gales in places but all areas will stay mild with temperatures well above average until late in the week when cooler conditions might slip down from the NW.
GFS then shows very changeable weather through Week 2 with alternating wet and fair weather with temperatures up and down somewhat too day to day.. Winds would be blowing from the West or SW at times but occasionally NW through the colder moments.
UKMO tonight concludes it's run next weekend with a filling Low pressure area over Eastern England ahead of a weak ridge approaching Western Britain. Cloud and remaining showers would die away through Saturday with a drier interlude before it looks like further troughs will spill in from the West later on Sunday with further wind and rain in temperatures close to average.
GEM tonight shows a stormy end to its run as a very deep Autumn storm winds up to the North of Scotland with gale or severe gale force winds, squally heavy showers and cooler weather than of late with some snow on Scottish mountains in the showers. At the very end of the run a new intense Low looks set to keep the stormy weather going for all of the British Isles.
NAVGEM shows a weak ridge crossing East next week too with a drier and cooler interlude ahead of some more rain at times on inward coming Atlantic troughs. With high pressure closer to the South than of late the South would probably see lighter rain than elsewhere.
ECM tonight shows a windy and changeable weekend and after a drier interlude further rain and strong wind is ushered in from the West across Britain by Low pressure to the North. Towards the end of the run an increased risk of storminess is shown as some powerful depressions cross the Atlantic to end close to the NW.
The GFS Ensembles show mild weather in place this week with rain at times before temperatures fall back towards the seasonal average but with continuing changeable weather with rain at times along with strong winds.
The Jet Stream remains well South across the Atlantic and sweeping NE across the UK for the coming week or so with small signs of a drift Northwards somewhat in Week 2 when it becomes notably strong.
In Summary there is little change tonight in the overall sequence of events with a mild or very mild week to come with a lot of rain at times especially towards the SW and West. Late in the weekend and next weekend signs of a window of drier and cooler weather are still evident before a return to unsettled and occasionally windy weather returns this time with temperatures much closer to the seasonal average.
Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm
Originally Posted by: GIBBY