Good morning. Here is today's browse through the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday October 22nd 2013.
All models show a mild SSW airflow over the UK with Low pressure transferring slowly North and NE towards NW Britain. As a result unsettled conditions will prevail for all with heavy rain or showers across all areas today. Through the next few days things turn a little cooler as winds veer more Westerly but still with some heavy showers tomorrow in the North and West in particular. On Thursday a brief lull looks likely before further Low pressure tracks NE over the UK with renewed rain and wind late in the week. This then gives way to showers ahead of a strong Westerly flow that develops for the weekend with rain or showers for all and temperatures much less mild with values close to the seasonal average by then.
GFS then maintains very unsettled weather through the rest of it's run with next week particularly wet and maybe stormy for a time as an intense Low crosses the UK. The pattern calms down somewhat with regards to wind for a time before a renewed surge of Atlantic gales and rain in association with Low pressure to the North concludes the run. After the final few days of mildness is out of the way by the end of this week it looks like temperatures will fall to average thereafter and it is sure to feel much chillier than of late.
UKMO shows the start of next week as equally unsettled with a broad bank of Low pressure stretching from Scandinavia to Greenland on Monday with strong and unstable Westerly winds delivering rain and showers to all, some heavy. It will be noticeably colder than of late with temperatures close to or even just a little below or above average at times dependant of the origins of the air mass over the UK at the time.
GEM today continues to show the potential for some major storm systems crossing the UK next week with severe gales and heavy rain likely at times. A few brighter intervals would occur at times and temperatures will be much down on recent levels especially felt over the South.
NAVGEM too is very unsettled next week with Low pressure over or close to the North with a strong Westerly flow over all areas. Rain alternating with showers would be the order of the day and in the wind it will feel and be much colder than of late.
ECM keeps things very mobile next week with last night's phantom High pressure to the East as expected absent from the output today. Instead a very active Atlantic spawns some powerful Low pressure areas crossing to the North with spells of rain alternating with squally showers in gale force winds at times and temperatures close to the seasonal normal at best for all next week.
The GFS Ensembles show temperatures falling back over the next few days as the axis of winds change from West to East as opposed to SW to NE. The weather is shown by nearly all members to remain wet and windy for much of the period with some copious and heavy rain for all at times in a strong breeze. A few drier days are shown in between the rain bands but these look only very short-lived.
The Jet Stream which is currently blowing across the Atlantic over or to the South of the UK continues for a while longer before it moves ever so slightly North to the UK in general and occasionally Scotland but becomes very powerful spawning some very deep Low pressure areas close to Northern Britain next week with the resultant jet flow pulsating North then South ahead and behind weather systems.
In Summary today our prolonged period of very mild conditions is coming to an end. Over the next few days temperatures will begin to fall back towards average as the mild SW flow is replaced by a strong Westerly flow with a source at high latitudes over the North Atlantic. The weather is shown almost exclusively from all models to be often wet and very windy with severe gales possible next week should some of the output verify as intense areas of Low pressure cross over or to the North of the British Isles. Rainfall will be commonplace as a result, often heavy and prolonged and river catchment areas and low lying parts of the UK could become prone to cumulative flooding with time. With lower temperatures we have to begin to cater for the risk of snowfall on Scottish mountains at times though due to the strength of winds alone any significant frost anywhere looks very unlikely.
Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset