Good morning everyone. Here is todays A.M. report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday October 23rd 2013.
All models show Low pressure moving up towards Ireland from the SW over the next 34 hours or so. A ridge of High pressure today will keep most places dry and bright with cloud and a freshening SE breeze reaching the SW by dusk. Rain follows NE and reaches most areas by tomorrow with clearer, mild and showers conditions affecting the South tomorrow while the North stays wet. Through the weekend further troughs advance East off the Atlantic with a rash of showers and strong winds or all later Saturday and Sunday. On Sunday night and into Monday the jury seems to remain out on the potential for a stormy spell of weather as a small, fast moving but significant Low moves East across the South with severe gales, heavy rain and then squally showers rattling through. It will feel rather cold over the UK through this period.
GFS then shows a rapid pressure rise with a ridge crossing East over the UK midweek with drier , quieter and less rainy weather with the South probably becoming completely dry for a time. Elsewhere mild SW winds return with some rain at times, occasionally reaching the SE on weakening cold fronts as they pass. Later in the run High pressure plays a bigger role over the South for a time, extending in from Europe with frost and fog patches night and morning. The North sees more injections of mild Atlantic SW winds and rain which occasionally still reaches down into the SE. Temperatures throughout would be rather mild in the SW flows but occasionally rather chilly behind cold fronts and any clear nights in the drier spells across the misty South.
UKMO this morning shows a weak ridge of High pressure crossing the UK following the very disturbed and stormy period of early in the week. As a result a dry and quiet day is expected next Wednesday before fronts and a renewed injection of SW winds bring further rain back across the North and West especially soon after Day 6.
GEM shows just a squally trough rather than a storm moving quickly East on Monday. Pressure is then shown to rise, especially across the South with a lot of dry and rather mild weather developing thereafter with High pressure held over Europe while the North keeps the Atlantic onslaught going with wind and rain moving West to East at times. Temperatures look to be near or rather above normal in the South later and far from cold in the unsettled North as well.
NAVGEM makes little or nothing of the storm early in the week with just a strong blustery conventional Westerly flow carrying a mix of sunshine and squally showers up to midweek. Thereafter it does differ somewhat in as much as it prefers to keep Low pressure close to all of the British Isles with attendant rain and showers continuing for all in average temperatures.
ECM does whistle a rapidly deepening Low across the South on Monday morning with the risk of severe gales in the extreme South while the general pattern of unsettled and strong wind weather pattern remains in place throughout next week with a drier interlude possible around midweek.
The GFS Ensembles show a typically unsettled and Autumnal pattern with an oscillating set of members pulsing on the mild and cold side of average throughout though never markedly so. As a result the general consensus is that the weather will remain Atlantic based with rain at times throughout the next few weeks with little to be relied upon dry and settled weather. Temperatures should remain near, or just above and below the long term mean throughout.
The Jet Stream is currently positioning itself over the Atlantic and the UK once tomorrows Low has moved North and become absorbed in the Atlantic flow. It doesn't look like straying far from that position either anytime soon blowing very strongly at times.
In Summary the main talking point is how the development of Sunday/Monday storm system develops if at all and where. Little is any clearer today with some output ignoring any chance at all while ECM , UKMO and ECM show potential for a short but worrying period when storm force winds are possible over the highly populated South on Monday. Things then look like settling down briefly midweek but there is plenty of support for the Atlantic to quickly regain momentum with further wind and rain likely for all. It does look like there is a chance of some more prolonged drier interludes in the South later where mist, fog and frost may develop briefly but overall there is nothing for 'cold lovers' to hang there hopes on while the Atlantic stays in such vigorous mode and High pressure remains over Southern Europe.
Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset