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Matty H
24 October 2013 23:44:12

I truly despair at how people can cream their jeans over an event such as this. I have a large tree at the front that's big enough to fall on my house. I have a large tree at the back that's also big enough to fall on my house. I'd like to keep my house intact, thank you very much.

Originally Posted by: SEMerc 



Agree entirely, but by the same token there are few things I despise more on here than people being made to feel guilty for their weather interest. Not that I'm at all saying that's what you were doing.

Re GTW's point - standard practice in that its just one member of one ens of one model, albeit op.

Nothing more than a hunch says this will be a pretty regulation winter storm for most. Very windy, some tree or building damage, which will be highlighted heavily in the media, and no more than a very windy day for most. Storms like 87 are once in a lifetime events for individuals in a specific area at any one time. For most it will be nothing of note.... I hope.
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
SEMerc
24 October 2013 23:53:56


I truly despair at how people can cream their jeans over an event such as this. I have a large tree at the front that's big enough to fall on my house. I have a large tree at the back that's also big enough to fall on my house. I'd like to keep my house intact, thank you very much.


Originally Posted by: Matty H 



Agree entirely, but by the same token there are few things I despise more on here than people being made to feel guilty for their weather interest. Not that I'm at all saying that's what you were doing.

Re GTW's point - standard practice in that its just one member of one ens of one model, albeit op.

Nothing more than a hunch says this will be a pretty regulation winter storm for most. Very windy, some tree or building damage, which will be highlighted heavily in the media, and no more than a very windy day for most. Storms like 87 are once in a lifetime events for individuals in a specific area at any one time. For most it will be nothing of note.... I hope.

Originally Posted by: SEMerc 


Well it looks to me as if they're downgrading this already. Mind you, that's all subject to change of course. Looking at the faxes etc I'd be more worried were I living in northern Germany and Denmark. Unless my eyes are deceiving me.

Matty H
24 October 2013 23:57:19


I truly despair at how people can cream their jeans over an event such as this. I have a large tree at the front that's big enough to fall on my house. I have a large tree at the back that's also big enough to fall on my house. I'd like to keep my house intact, thank you very much.


Originally Posted by: SEMerc 



Agree entirely, but by the same token there are few things I despise more on here than people being made to feel guilty for their weather interest. Not that I'm at all saying that's what you were doing.

Re GTW's point - standard practice in that its just one member of one ens of one model, albeit op.

Nothing more than a hunch says this will be a pretty regulation winter storm for most. Very windy, some tree or building damage, which will be highlighted heavily in the media, and no more than a very windy day for most. Storms like 87 are once in a lifetime events for individuals in a specific area at any one time. For most it will be nothing of note.... I hope.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Well it looks to me as if they're downgrading this already. Mind you, that's all subject to change of course. Looking at the faxes etc I'd be more worried were I living in northern Germany and Denmark. Unless my eyes are deceiving me.

Originally Posted by: SEMerc 



Tend to agree as I said on the other page. This thing is a million miles away in forecasting terms. This will probably be a nowcast at best, or wrote off by the end of the weekend.
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Gandalf The White
25 October 2013 00:14:07


I truly despair at how people can cream their jeans over an event such as this. I have a large tree at the front that's big enough to fall on my house. I have a large tree at the back that's also big enough to fall on my house. I'd like to keep my house intact, thank you very much.


Originally Posted by: Medlock Vale Weather 


Don't worry this storm has been hyped up more than any I can remember yet it's track is still uncertain.

Originally Posted by: SEMerc 



I disagree. It's not being "hyped up", certainly not in here and not by the Met Office. There is potential for something quite damaging in the first half of Monday but, as you say, the track and indeed the intensity remains uncertain. Given that this is 100% down to the extraordinarily good computer modelling, as has been noted earlier, it's fascinating to see how the evolution of something quite unusual is handled.

Nobody wants property damage, injury, death or loss of power. But then nobody wants death and injury from severe wintry weather but it still causes excitement here - and elsewhere. So, let's not mistake enthusiasm for meteorology for something else.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


SEMerc
25 October 2013 00:21:16



I truly despair at how people can cream their jeans over an event such as this. I have a large tree at the front that's big enough to fall on my house. I have a large tree at the back that's also big enough to fall on my house. I'd like to keep my house intact, thank you very much.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


But is anyone really? With the greatest of respect, this is not Netweather.


It is a fine line we tread between genuine interest in the mechanisms of severe weather and a sometimes borderline fascination for it's impact. It goes with the territory so to speak. It would you have to admit be a very uninspiring chat forum if all we talked about was drizzle and fairly mild temperatures. And if that interests you may I suggest something I believe is known as Facebook LOL.


I genuinely don't harbour an ounce of guilt by saying I am fascinated by severe weather events, because there is zero I or anyone can do to stop or change them, but what we can do is study and learn and embrace them whilst of course ackowledging that they are capable of destruction and tragedy.


This is not a forecast for Monday by the way.


Originally Posted by: SEMerc 


Don't get me wrong, I'd splash out all over my screen at the prospect of three feet (I don't do metric measurements) of snow. Thing is, it won't damage my house, because I'd be out there, with the snow shovel, insuring it didn't happen.

SnowyHythe(Kent)
25 October 2013 06:44:51
Latest shows very windy weather still for southern areas with ECM going for sting jet conditions for Wales and Northern England.
Matty H
25 October 2013 06:49:51
GFS and UKMO show the worst missing these parts, which is pleasing. Hard to tell from the ECM on wetter due to the time gap between frames
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
doctormog
25 October 2013 07:10:59
Sometimes UKMO and ECM 78 and 84hr charts would be quite handy.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Matty H
25 October 2013 07:15:09
Ian Fergusson quoted potential wind gusts for the West Country on Twatter last night, but he appears to have forgotten that we don't generally use knots when talking about wind speed on land. There are a few trademark "bothersomes" thrown in I'm sure. I think what he's trying to say is widespread gusts to 70mph in land and up to 80mph Bristol Channel and high ground. This was all before the overnight outputs and he hasn't updated yet this morning.
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
eddied
25 October 2013 07:18:35
For those with passable French, there's a pretty good commentary on forthcoming events on Metoeciel:

http://www.meteociel.fr/actu/329/avis_de_tempete_sur_le_grand_ouest_/ 
Location: Reigate, Surrey 105m ASL

Winter 22/23
Days snow falling: 4
Days snow on ground:8
Max snow depths: 6cm (December 19th ish)

Summer 2022 max 39C on July 19th
Summer 2021 max: 32C on July 18th
Summer 2020 max: 36C on July 31st
KevBrads1
25 October 2013 07:20:47

GFS and UKMO show the worst missing these parts, which is pleasing. Hard to tell from the ECM on wetter due to the time gap between frames

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



I don't know if this any help


http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/ 
MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
JoeShmoe99
25 October 2013 07:21:11

ECM has the track further north now across wales and the midlands, will be a case of nowcasting as these sorts of things very rarely take the exact track forecasted

Cumbrian Snowman
25 October 2013 07:21:42

Corect me if I am wrong, but the LP has even formed yet ? still all the play for.


As for "knots"  I report data to the Met Office daily and have to use knots for my wind speed


Its going to be an interesting few days ahead thats for sure 


#Autumn #Storm

Paul C
Brampton, Cumbria 117m ASL
http://www.bramptonweather.co.uk 
Follow me on Twitter 
doctormog
25 October 2013 07:22:57
The BBC forecast (just on) has the expected track of the storm from South Wales across to the Wash with error bands on either side as far north as N England and as far south as around the south coast.

Edit: thanks Kevin👍
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
idj20
25 October 2013 07:32:16

Mornin' all.

I've noticed that the possible risk of coastal gales has been moved forward and thus now becomes a Sunday night event affecting the South Coast. Typical, notice how we always seem to have the strongest wind during the night!
I'm also starting to think that it is looking a bit hyped up, we can still expect a very blustery and noisy night but I'll stick my neck out and say it may not be as bad as it sounds.

Getting a crumb of comfort from looking at this: http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Folkestone_Harbour/long.html I get worried when I see values exceeding 23 m/s and here it shows at 14 to 18 m/s during the night which isn't that bad. It does peak at 22 m/s on Monday afternoon which does seems to be very much at odds with the current outputs as I'm expecting the worst of the gales to have moved on by then.

I'll stick my neck out and say that it will become very windy and there will be gale force winds for my location come the small hours of Monday morning, but is unlikely to be as destructive as Oct 16th '87 and Jan 25th '90. Doesn't help that trees are still in full leaf so I suspect there'll be some broken branches laying about by Monday morning.

Folkestone Harbour. 
some faraway beach
25 October 2013 07:37:36

For those with passable French, there's a pretty good commentary on forthcoming events on Metoeciel:

http://www.meteociel.fr/actu/329/avis_de_tempete_sur_le_grand_ouest_/

Originally Posted by: eddied 


For those with unpassable French, the gist is the general agreement of the main models this morning. The principal, subtle difference is that although the routes are identical, GFS has the system moving through faster (possibly owing to "effet explosion") and already over the Low Countries at midday Monday. ECM, by contrast would have the event principally affecting the West Country at this time, though they seem to use the 12z chart to illustrate this point.

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
radiohead
25 October 2013 07:39:48

0Z EC has a 964mb low crossing Wales/England. The simulated cloudcover does a good job at painting a familiar picture:


http://i.imgur.com/0mxv1Vw.jpg 

Gooner
25 October 2013 07:41:19

GFS and UKMO show the worst missing these parts, which is pleasing. Hard to tell from the ECM on wetter due to the time gap between frames

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Probably end up being a breeze

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gavin P
25 October 2013 08:02:28

Hi all,


Here's my latest take on Stormy Monday;


http://www.gavsweathervids.com/flash.html


GFS further south with Monday's low, most of the other models still look worrying.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
idj20
25 October 2013 08:05:53


Hi all,


Here's my latest take on Stormy Monday;


http://www.gavsweathervids.com/flash.html


GFS further south with Monday's low, most of the other models still look worrying.


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 



Urgh, so it looks like Kent is going to get it in the neck no matter what.  Even GFS's take on is worrying for me. Also not liking the jet stream profile for Monday morning.

Folkestone Harbour. 
nsrobins
25 October 2013 08:20:35

Still a lot of wishcasting here I see

Although the GFS 00Z OP has relaxed a bit on intensity, zipping a developing wave across on a more northerly vector, ECM has if anything tightened the low, bringing a explosively deepening system across England between 04Z and 08Z Mon.
Given the uncertainties of the American model, I would focus on ECM and in so doing still expect something severe.

It is however still only Friday and I would say the 00Zs Sat will be the earliest chance to put specific detail on wind speeds and areas impacted. Opinions ae fine, but I would rather see objective analysis.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Matty H
25 October 2013 08:20:45

GFS and UKMO show the worst missing these parts, which is pleasing. Hard to tell from the ECM on wetter due to the time gap between frames

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 



I don't know if this any help


http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/ 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



Excellent, cheers.
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Polar Low
25 October 2013 08:36:38

gfs mean( which I must say has not moved much (even thou I get told off for post mean charts by experenced members I still look as should look at whole pack) and opp now close good trend downgrade


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=72&mode=0&carte=1


mean


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=21&ech=78&mode=0&carte=0


50/50 amongest the pack


no 4 is the one we want


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=4&ech=78&mode=0&carte=0


and not some like 19


 


Ecm 0z OPP looks over the top to me


members postage clusters dont look so bad  were runnig a little late.


http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!72!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2013102500!!/


 


 


 

Charmhills
25 October 2013 08:38:21


Still a lot of wishcasting here I see

Although the GFS 00Z OP has relaxed a bit on intensity, zipping a developing wave across on a more northerly vector, ECM has if anything tightened the low, bringing a explosively deepening system across England between 04Z and 08Z Mon.
Given the uncertainties of the American model, I would focus on ECM and in so doing still expect something severe.

It is however still only Friday and I would say the 00Zs Sat will be the earliest chance to put specific detail on wind speeds and areas impacted. Opinions ae fine, but I would rather see objective analysis.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif


Its a nasty system alright though a fast moving one at that.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Polar Low
25 October 2013 08:50:51

ecm mean does not develop such a bomb nor as bad as quick intresting at 96 mean and opp look close


 but not at 72 at the mo


mean


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem721.html


 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem961.html


 

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