Alot of people are saying well it's only 60-70mph etc but with alot of trees still in leaf that could cause havoc !!!

6zgfs control edges south

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=72&mode=0&carte=0

Looks like it's all down to timing IF the developing secondary low pressure interacts with a powerful jet steam over the South East by 12 pm Monday noon time. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131025/06/81/hgt300.png

Urgh.

Weii I am looking forward to it! We lost a couple of tiles from the roof last night, and the village is gridlocked  because 2 large trees came down- bring it on..

Interesting post by Will Hand on UKWW that might explain the more elongated structure of the low on the 06Z GFS.

The understanding of sting jet process has become better understood and modeled in recent years, but mesoscale detail like this will only be modeled in the very fine grid output from +24 hours in.
The possibility of a sting jet situation is certainly there as described by Will H and is IMO the reason for the potent wording being used in the warnings.
Whether one develops will only be known at short range.

I think this chart is showing the most wind forecast I've ever seen for my area. It looks to be progged a little later into late Monday morning.

A lot of our trees on island were brought down in March due to blizzards and the ones that weren't will have been weakened. I have one mature tree I'm expecting to lose in the back garden, hopefully it won't bring down others with it. If the wind stays in the SW I'll escape the worst but it now looks to be more W'ly and then NW'ly as the low passes to my North, that is when I'll catch it. My house is exposed directly to the sea.

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/storm-motion/75h.htm

Me too Neil- we will of course take obvious precautions...but there's not much I can do about the neighbours huge (and I mean HUUUGE) Leyllandiis that they refuse to lop.....we lost a large branch from one onto our barn roof a few years back..hope it doesn't repeat.

For those interested I have compiled a blog on my website which will be updated regularly over the weekend as new data and changes develop. It can be found at;_ 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Martin-Gibbs-Blog(2800563).htm

The October 1987 storm was the worst in SE England since 1703 and the second worst in the pst 600 years.

The biggest one ever was one in the 14th Century which is reckoned to have delivered gusts to 140 mph across most of central England and Wales .

Re: Interaction with the developing low and ex-tropical Lorenzo

I had more or less dismissed the idea that energy associated with ex tropical storm Lorenzo would interact with the developing low in mid-Atlantic but I'm having second thoughts. The area of thunderstorms associted with the last position of Lorenzo is currently at about 33N 45W. The fax charts indicate the developing wave will initiate at about 40N 45W. This isn't a huge distance in atmospheric terms and it is entirely concievable that the moist, ex-tropical air associted with lorenzo will get entrained from the south. This is likely to add to the development and subsequent characteristics of the low as it zips east on the 140mph jet and deepens rapidly.

I'm sure if my calculations are correct the models will attempt to mix this into the modeling, and if so may in part excuse the models for the way they are projecting the intensity.

140 mph winds would surely have completely destroyed all the forrests in the affected areas. I've never heard of this event, how are the wind speeds estimated, are there any accounts of woodland being completely flattened?

It does not always work out like that thou just because 950mb burns sort of low it is also the pressure gradents difference also very important into europe u dont always need very deep lows to get high winds.

As Steve said o night gfs done a good job at spoting and history says its good at that it may well be right this time regardless of what anyone says.

Forests wouldn't so much have been destroyed by 140 mph winds as regenerated. Old and decaying timber gets felled in these storms, allowing light through for younger, stronger trees to thrive. One of the unexpected outcomes of Oct. 1987 was the futility of planting new saplings to replace fallen trees in woodland. They just got rapidly overtaken by naturally sown trees, which proved far stronger. Land left to its own devices reverts to forest astonishingly quickly. Dotted around Somerset are the remains of homes and farmyards barely visible amidst the tall trees. More famously the vast forests of New England were bare, intensive farmland throughout the 19th century.

Insisting it's wrong to look forward to events such as these storms is like insisting wildfires in places like California or Australia are aberrations. Both are an essential part of a natural cycle without which vegetation in general wouldn't receive the light and nutrients it needs to thrive. If your home is at risk from fire, you clear a firebreak, while a tree or branch old or decayed enough to be capable of falling on your property in an 80 mph gust surely needs removing before the day those gusts inevitably arrive.

Do we think thw winds of Friday November 12th 2010 to be similar to Monday. This is Cornwall reported 12 trees down and 41 incidents of minor flooding in Devon.The winds happened TWO times that week. Gale force 11...

Hi,

The winds are what I am concerned about more than the rain, and looking at the latest chart on Buzz, it would suggest that we're mostly looking at S to SW winds down here. That means that Falmouth, Penzance will take a battering. It is a good job we are not on Springs at the moment or there is the possibilty of severe coastal flooding...... had this storm been 10 days ago it would be a whole different story regarding the possible damage, combined with Spring tides.

I live in Perranporth directly overlooking the beach, so if we get Northerlies from this storm, when it hits, it's going to be a very interesting view.

Latest 5 day forecast for Southampton has highest gust windspeed of 52mph for Sunday night.That seems lower than initial expectations.

I agree. With the proviso that it is still a forecast, if the low deveops and tracks as indicated then we are looking at quite widespread damage and very widespread disruption to travel.   If we get gusts up around 70-80mph there will undoubtedly be property damage and injuries.  Hopefully nobody will be killed but if this does hit with the rushhour I wouldn't rule out the risk, with the roads at their fullest.  At least some/many schools will be on half term week so that should help.

It might be worth reminding people of the Beaufort Scale definitions:

In particular for Storm Force 11 (winds 64-73mph): Widespread vegetation and structural damage likely.

If we do get Force 12: Severe widespread damage to vegetation and structures. Debris and unsecured objects are hurled about.

Looking at the 06z Navgem run it deepens the low quite a lot:

0600 - around 982mb at 6am, centred over the tip of Cornwall

1200 - around 972mb, centred over Cambridgeshire

1800 - around 964mb, over the southern North Sea, midway between East Anglia and Denmark

The forecaster on the TV was saying the worst case scenario would be deepening of the LP as it passed through the UK.

The system is now visible on the NAE model at T+42 and T+48:

It is rather more developed that at the same point on the GFS run.

I've been holding back on replacing several fence panels and it looks like I will have some repair work to do after Monday.  In the 1987 storm we lost the entire length of fencing, some 40 metres down the side of the plot.

I think Monday morning, 0300 - 0600 is a bit livelier...

The computer generated forecast for here has 60mph gusts around 6am on Monday, sustained ca. 30mph.

The equivalent for Southampton shows 70mph gusts at 3am, dropping to 56mph at 6am.

It's true you don't need a very low pressure to get strong winds. Back on 24 Dec 1997 we had a low that evolved very rapidly off the southwest coast, similar to how some of the models are showing with Monday's low. We had gusts of 90-95 mph inland, it was quite damaging and the strongest winds in decades for some parts. The min pressure was "only" about 975mb.