Since when have 80mph gusts hit the south coast once or twice a year?
I'm 27 years old and I don't remember there ever being gusts that strong across southern England. Coastal or otherise (I'm too young to remember 1990 or 1987).
Originally Posted by: nsrobins
I don't have data to hand but you are quite right. Even when it's very windy with leaves and twigs blowing around the maximum gust you'll see in places like Portland or St Catherines Head on the IOW is 60-70mph.
With 55-60mph sustained winds you can expect gusts in excess of 80mph. That is what is being modelled as it stands and gusts of that magnitude are more than capable of bringing trees down and causing structural damage, especially as it's been a few years now since the last comparable event.
Still a forecast though which is what we are here for.
Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986
I agree. With the proviso that it is still a forecast, if the low deveops and tracks as indicated then we are looking at quite widespread damage and very widespread disruption to travel. If we get gusts up around 70-80mph there will undoubtedly be property damage and injuries. Hopefully nobody will be killed but if this does hit with the rushhour I wouldn't rule out the risk, with the roads at their fullest. At least some/many schools will be on half term week so that should help.
It might be worth reminding people of the Beaufort Scale definitions:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaufort_scale In particular for Storm Force 11 (winds 64-73mph): Widespread vegetation and structural damage likely.
If we do get Force 12: Severe widespread damage to vegetation and structures. Debris and unsecured objects are hurled about.
Looking at the 06z Navgem run it deepens the low quite a lot:
0600 - around 982mb at 6am, centred over the tip of Cornwall
1200 - around 972mb, centred over Cambridgeshire
1800 - around 964mb, over the southern North Sea, midway between East Anglia and Denmark
The forecaster on the TV was saying the worst case scenario would be deepening of the LP as it passed through the UK.
The system is now visible on the NAE model at T+42 and T+48:
http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/10/25/basis06/euro/prty/13102706_2506.gif It is rather more developed that at the same point on the GFS run.
I've been holding back on replacing several fence panels and it looks like I will have some repair work to do after Monday. In the 1987 storm we lost the entire length of fencing, some 40 metres down the side of the plot.
Edited by user
25 October 2013 14:21:14
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Reason: Not specified
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E