Monday's predicted storm· Page 15

Rob K
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 13:48:10

Here's the chart for midnight and 12pm 16th October 1987.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=16&month=10&year=1987&hour=0&map=0&mode=0
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=16&month=10&year=1987&hour=12&map=0&mode=0
On the face of it there's a lot of similarities - although things are never exactly the same. It may not get quite as deep this time (although that remains to be seen) - but we may have winds still strong for the Monday rushhour - whereas in 1987, the storm had mainly gone through by that point.
I have a book on the Great storm of 87 which contains a synoptic chart for 3am - showing the centre over Bristol - with a pressure reading of 956mb - so it's hard to see us matching that with this coming storm - but I still expect notable destruction to woodland/property on Monday etc.

Originally Posted by: beng

It's odd - the first of those charts looks a lot less threatening than the ones for this weekend, and in isolation you would think it is too far south to do much harm. But the storm really bombed and as a result it veered very sharply northwards as you can see in the midday chart.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Bellevarde
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 13:51:15

#352

[quote=KevBrads1;543423]Accuweather have written a blog on the possibilities http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/will-the-uk-storm-be-like-1987/19244656[/quote]

And I have to say what a poor article.

"The approaching storm this weekend already has winds over hurricane force in the ocean, and NOAA is predicting waves to 50 feet."

Erm...the daughter low that will be responsible has barely formed yet.

Global Warming
Guest

26 October 2013 13:51:18

#353

Although this storm is not likely to be that exceptional for the time of year the fact that it is arriving when most of the trees still have a lot of leaves on and there has been a fair amount of rain in the last couple of weeks means that we are likely to lose a lot of trees on Monday.

Latest maximum wind gust estimates for Monday morning from the WeatherPro app:

Basingstoke 77mph

Lymington 92mph
Weymouth 91mph
Portland 91mph
Gosport 90mph
Thorney Island 86mph

We should not forget that there will be a lot of rain with this system as well with 30-40mm quite widely which could result in flooding particularly if fallen leaves block drains.

This wind chart from the WRF-NMM model shows the position quite nicely with the peak of the storm in central southern England around 10am on Monday morning. Wind gusts here showing as 75-80mph (120 kph+) along the south coast http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2013102606/nmm-11-52-1.png?26-13

beng
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 14:03:23

#354

Here's the chart for midnight and 12pm 16th October 1987. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=16&month=10&year=1987&hour=0&map=0&mode=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=16&month=10&year=1987&hour=12&map=0&mode=0 On the face of it there's a lot of similarities - although things are never exactly the same. It may not get quite as deep this time (although that remains to be seen) - but we may have winds still strong for the Monday rushhour - whereas in 1987, the storm had mainly gone through by that point. I have a book on the Great storm of 87 which contains a synoptic chart for 3am - showing the centre over Bristol - with a pressure reading of 956mb - so it's hard to see us matching that with this coming storm - but I still expect notable destruction to woodland/property on Monday etc.

Originally Posted by: Rob K

It's odd - the first of those charts looks a lot less threatening than the ones for this weekend, and in isolation you would think it is too far south to do much harm. But the storm really bombed and as a result it veered very sharply northwards as you can see in the midday chart.

Originally Posted by: beng

Yes indeed, TBH I wouldn't rule out the models under-estimating the depth that this coming storm will reach - but we won't know until the event.

Reigate, home of the North Downs

Larry Seinfeld
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 14:14:40

#355

Are we still expecting it to be hitting Sussex in the morning rush hour when I will be trying to get to my office just off the seafront in Brighton?? (I have a 25 minute walk so that could be a real battle against the weather if the storm is hitting us then!!) I guess there will be no point trying to use even a storm proof umbrella so I will probably have to rely on my long rain cape and hope I don't get blown off my feet!!!

Originally Posted by: Lucy J

Forget about the umbrella take a cab. Treat yourself. Why risk dying when you could treat yourself. Whats the point in killing yourself when you could give yourself a special treat?

Torquay.
Live Weather Station Brixham (St Mary's)
Live Torbay Sea Temperature
Flickr Torbay
Flickr Pictures of Torquay's Palm Trees

Gooner
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 14:20:02

#356

Are we still expecting it to be hitting Sussex in the morning rush hour when I will be trying to get to my office just off the seafront in Brighton?? (I have a 25 minute walk so that could be a real battle against the weather if the storm is hitting us then!!) I guess there will be no point trying to use even a storm proof umbrella so I will probably have to rely on my long rain cape and hope I don't get blown off my feet!!!

Originally Posted by: Larry Seinfeld

Forget about the umbrella take a cab. Treat yourself. Why risk dying when you could treat yourself. Whats the point in killing yourself when you could give yourself a special treat?

Originally Posted by: Lucy J

Of course you could always walk to avoid a tree hitting the cab

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Gandalf The White
Advanced Member Topic Starter

26 October 2013 14:21:09

#357

Are we still expecting it to be hitting Sussex in the morning rush hour when I will be trying to get to my office just off the seafront in Brighton?? (I have a 25 minute walk so that could be a real battle against the weather if the storm is hitting us then!!) I guess there will be no point trying to use even a storm proof umbrella so I will probably have to rely on my long rain cape and hope I don't get blown off my feet!!!

Originally Posted by: Larry Seinfeld

Forget about the umbrella take a cab. Treat yourself. Why risk dying when you could treat yourself. Whats the point in killing yourself when you could give yourself a special treat?

Originally Posted by: Lucy J

You're potentially at risk once you leave the house. My advice would be to see how bad it is on Monday morning and if it's wild then don't go outside until it's eased off. I've told my wife to think of not going in if it's chaos on the roads.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E

The Beast from the East
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 14:24:39

#358

Latest NAE seems to send the worst winds south so perhaps we may dodge the bullet this time

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/10/26/basis06/ukuk/prty/13102806_2606.gif

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

Larry Seinfeld
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 14:27:53

#359

Are we still expecting it to be hitting Sussex in the morning rush hour when I will be trying to get to my office just off the seafront in Brighton?? (I have a 25 minute walk so that could be a real battle against the weather if the storm is hitting us then!!) I guess there will be no point trying to use even a storm proof umbrella so I will probably have to rely on my long rain cape and hope I don't get blown off my feet!!!

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Forget about the umbrella take a cab. Treat yourself. Why risk dying when you could treat yourself. Whats the point in killing yourself when you could give yourself a special treat?

Originally Posted by: Larry Seinfeld

Of course you could always walk to avoid a tree hitting the cab

Originally Posted by: Lucy J

All I'm saying is If I had a 25 minute walk in this storm, I would take a cab instead. Anyway I think she said it was work so she cant stay at home.

Torquay.
Live Weather Station Brixham (St Mary's)
Live Torbay Sea Temperature
Flickr Torbay
Flickr Pictures of Torquay's Palm Trees

Gandalf The White
Advanced Member Topic Starter

26 October 2013 14:33:46

#360

Are we still expecting it to be hitting Sussex in the morning rush hour when I will be trying to get to my office just off the seafront in Brighton?? (I have a 25 minute walk so that could be a real battle against the weather if the storm is hitting us then!!) I guess there will be no point trying to use even a storm proof umbrella so I will probably have to rely on my long rain cape and hope I don't get blown off my feet!!!

Originally Posted by: Larry Seinfeld

Forget about the umbrella take a cab. Treat yourself. Why risk dying when you could treat yourself. Whats the point in killing yourself when you could give yourself a special treat?

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Of course you could always walk to avoid a tree hitting the cab

Originally Posted by: Larry Seinfeld

All I'm saying is If I had a 25 minute walk in this storm, I would take a cab instead. Anyway I think she said it was work so she cant stay at home.

Originally Posted by: Lucy J

Work or not, if there are things flying around - branches etc - then I wouldn't risk it. Most employers would be reasonable if the conditions are dangerous. Indeed if an employer insisted you took an unreasonable risk and you got injured it would be an interesting legal position.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E

Ulric
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 14:41:23

#361

Hmmmm. My office is central London but we have staff coming in from Southampton, Worthing, Eastbourne, Ipswich, Norwich and of course myself from North Hertfordshire. One thing is for sure, I'm not going in to the Smoke on Monday if there is any chance of the railways leaving me marooned there...

"Never express yourself more clearly than you think." - Niels Bohr

Larry Seinfeld
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 14:43:12

#362

Are we still expecting it to be hitting Sussex in the morning rush hour when I will be trying to get to my office just off the seafront in Brighton?? (I have a 25 minute walk so that could be a real battle against the weather if the storm is hitting us then!!) I guess there will be no point trying to use even a storm proof umbrella so I will probably have to rely on my long rain cape and hope I don't get blown off my feet!!!

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White

Forget about the umbrella take a cab. Treat yourself. Why risk dying when you could treat yourself. Whats the point in killing yourself when you could give yourself a special treat?

Originally Posted by: Larry Seinfeld

Of course you could always walk to avoid a tree hitting the cab

Originally Posted by: Gooner

All I'm saying is If I had a 25 minute walk in this storm, I would take a cab instead. Anyway I think she said it was work so she cant stay at home.

Originally Posted by: Larry Seinfeld

Work or not, if there are things flying around - branches etc - then I wouldn't risk it. Most employers would be reasonable if the conditions are dangerous. Indeed if an employer insisted you took an unreasonable risk and you got injured it would be an interesting legal position.

Originally Posted by: Lucy J

Can't disagree with that. I remember being a young teenager in Yorkshire and seeing rotating scud right above me travelling very fast. I had no idea what it was but I knew that this was some storm.

Torquay.
Live Weather Station Brixham (St Mary's)
Live Torbay Sea Temperature
Flickr Torbay
Flickr Pictures of Torquay's Palm Trees

Polar Low
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 14:47:13

#363

almost repeat on gm a few hours later

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=102&mode=0&carte=0

and it goes on

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=156&mode=0&carte=0

gtw might have to just re-name this thread stormy times or something.

imagine the amount of rain.

Polar Low
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 14:50:13

#364

wrong type of wind for BR not from human source.....

Hmmmm. My office is central London but we have staff coming in from Southampton, Worthing, Eastbourne, Ipswich, Norwich and of course myself from North Hertfordshire. One thing is for sure, I'm not going in to the Smoke on Monday if there is any chance of the railways leaving me marooned there...

Originally Posted by: Ulric

Gooner
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 14:57:36

#365

Are we still expecting it to be hitting Sussex in the morning rush hour when I will be trying to get to my office just off the seafront in Brighton?? (I have a 25 minute walk so that could be a real battle against the weather if the storm is hitting us then!!) I guess there will be no point trying to use even a storm proof umbrella so I will probably have to rely on my long rain cape and hope I don't get blown off my feet!!!

Originally Posted by: Larry Seinfeld

Forget about the umbrella take a cab. Treat yourself. Why risk dying when you could treat yourself. Whats the point in killing yourself when you could give yourself a special treat?

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White

Of course you could always walk to avoid a tree hitting the cab

Originally Posted by: Larry Seinfeld

All I'm saying is If I had a 25 minute walk in this storm, I would take a cab instead. Anyway I think she said it was work so she cant stay at home.

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Work or not, if there are things flying around - branches etc - then I wouldn't risk it. Most employers would be reasonable if the conditions are dangerous. Indeed if an employer insisted you took an unreasonable risk and you got injured it would be an interesting legal position.

Originally Posted by: Larry Seinfeld

Can't disagree with that. I remember being a young teenager in Yorkshire and seeing rotating scud right above me travelling very fast. I had no idea what it was but I knew that this was some storm.

Originally Posted by: Lucy J

Trouble is what do you say " I didn't go incase something hit me" much different when there is snow on the road , that is generally an accepted excuse .

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Gooner
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 14:59:06

#366

almost repeat on gm a few hours later

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=102&mode=0&carte=0

and it goes on

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=156&mode=0&carte=0

gtw might have to just re-name this thread stormy times or something.

imagine the amount of rain.

Originally Posted by: Polar Low

Certainly a rough spell on the way , it is a while since we had something like this

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Larry Seinfeld
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 14:59:12

#367

Hmmmm. My office is central London but we have staff coming in from Southampton, Worthing, Eastbourne, Ipswich, Norwich and of course myself from North Hertfordshire. One thing is for sure, I'm not going in to the Smoke on Monday if there is any chance of the railways leaving me marooned there...

Originally Posted by: Ulric

Marooned in Ipswich, that actually made me shudder. God bless those people heading to your office.

Torquay.
Live Weather Station Brixham (St Mary's)
Live Torbay Sea Temperature
Flickr Torbay
Flickr Pictures of Torquay's Palm Trees

Polar Low
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 15:01:32

#368

more gfs members seem to send it a little more south

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=48&mode=0&carte=0

Gooner
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 15:06:51

#369

more gfs members seem to send it a little more south

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=48&mode=0&carte=0

Originally Posted by: Polar Low

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs541.gif

looks rough

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Lucy J
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 15:06:58

#370

Are we still expecting it to be hitting Sussex in the morning rush hour when I will be trying to get to my office just off the seafront in Brighton?? (I have a 25 minute walk so that could be a real battle against the weather if the storm is hitting us then!!) I guess there will be no point trying to use even a storm proof umbrella so I will probably have to rely on my long rain cape and hope I don't get blown off my feet!!!

Originally Posted by: Larry Seinfeld

Forget about the umbrella take a cab. Treat yourself. Why risk dying when you could treat yourself. Whats the point in killing yourself when you could give yourself a special treat?

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White

Of course you could always walk to avoid a tree hitting the cab

Originally Posted by: Larry Seinfeld

All I'm saying is If I had a 25 minute walk in this storm, I would take a cab instead. Anyway I think she said it was work so she cant stay at home.

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Work or not, if there are things flying around - branches etc - then I wouldn't risk it. Most employers would be reasonable if the conditions are dangerous. Indeed if an employer insisted you took an unreasonable risk and you got injured it would be an interesting legal position.

Originally Posted by: Larry Seinfeld

Can't disagree with that. I remember being a young teenager in Yorkshire and seeing rotating scud right above me travelling very fast. I had no idea what it was but I knew that this was some storm.

Originally Posted by: Lucy J

Cab booked although they have said they can't guarantee service depending on the weather - yes it is work. Is it really going to be dangerous to be outside? I've lived in Brighton for 5 or 6 years now and have coped with everything the weather has thrown at me so far!! Thanks for your informed advice.....

Snow Hoper
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 15:08:35

#371

One tick away from a red warning now.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=se&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1382918400

Yikes !

Originally Posted by: Gusty

Possibly due to a) more confidence as we're nearer to the event, and b) if it's delayed until daylight hours, the risk of disruption is greater. Doesn't necessarily mean that the conditions themselves are any worse, just that their impact might be.

Originally Posted by: Girthmeister

Given that this has ticked up to one level below the red I am now certain that this will be upgraded to a red warning now. The only doubt is likely to be the timing factors now.

Originally Posted by: Gusty

Oops! I have to ride a bike around my post round during the Monday morning rush hour

Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.

Polar Low
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 15:09:53

#372

Marcus Thats easy,

I was very worried about the storm so had a few ciders to relax myself i over sleeped and also my football team lost

sorry neil and mods have to have a few lighter m,os delete at your pleasure.

Are we still expecting it to be hitting Sussex in the morning rush hour when I will be trying to get to my office just off the seafront in Brighton?? (I have a 25 minute walk so that could be a real battle against the weather if the storm is hitting us then!!) I guess there will be no point trying to use even a storm proof umbrella so I will probably have to rely on my long rain cape and hope I don't get blown off my feet!!!

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Forget about the umbrella take a cab. Treat yourself. Why risk dying when you could treat yourself. Whats the point in killing yourself when you could give yourself a special treat?

Originally Posted by: Larry Seinfeld

Of course you could always walk to avoid a tree hitting the cab

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White

All I'm saying is If I had a 25 minute walk in this storm, I would take a cab instead. Anyway I think she said it was work so she cant stay at home.

Originally Posted by: Larry Seinfeld

Work or not, if there are things flying around - branches etc - then I wouldn't risk it. Most employers would be reasonable if the conditions are dangerous. Indeed if an employer insisted you took an unreasonable risk and you got injured it would be an interesting legal position.

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Can't disagree with that. I remember being a young teenager in Yorkshire and seeing rotating scud right above me travelling very fast. I had no idea what it was but I knew that this was some storm.

Originally Posted by: Larry Seinfeld

Trouble is what do you say " I didn't go incase something hit me" much different when there is snow on the road , that is generally an accepted excuse .

Originally Posted by: Lucy J

Snow Hoper
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 15:10:26

#373

I put my head out the window going down the motorway just to get an idea of what it will feel like Monday:-

Conclusion, pretty much like this

Originally Posted by: Gusty

Nice one Jonesy !

Originally Posted by: Jonesy

This will be me on Monday trying to post people's mail via a bike

Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.

Larry Seinfeld
Advanced Member

26 October 2013 15:14:28

#374

Are we still expecting it to be hitting Sussex in the morning rush hour when I will be trying to get to my office just off the seafront in Brighton?? (I have a 25 minute walk so that could be a real battle against the weather if the storm is hitting us then!!) I guess there will be no point trying to use even a storm proof umbrella so I will probably have to rely on my long rain cape and hope I don't get blown off my feet!!!

Originally Posted by: Lucy J

Forget about the umbrella take a cab. Treat yourself. Why risk dying when you could treat yourself. Whats the point in killing yourself when you could give yourself a special treat?

Originally Posted by: Larry Seinfeld

Of course you could always walk to avoid a tree hitting the cab

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White

All I'm saying is If I had a 25 minute walk in this storm, I would take a cab instead. Anyway I think she said it was work so she cant stay at home.

Originally Posted by: Larry Seinfeld

Work or not, if there are things flying around - branches etc - then I wouldn't risk it. Most employers would be reasonable if the conditions are dangerous. Indeed if an employer insisted you took an unreasonable risk and you got injured it would be an interesting legal position.

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Can't disagree with that. I remember being a young teenager in Yorkshire and seeing rotating scud right above me travelling very fast. I had no idea what it was but I knew that this was some storm.

Originally Posted by: Larry Seinfeld

Cab booked although they have said they can't guarantee service depending on the weather - yes it is work. Is it really going to be dangerous to be outside? I've lived in Brighton for 5 or 6 years now and have coped with everything the weather has thrown at me so far!! Thanks for your informed advice.....

Originally Posted by: Lucy J

Its the potential. I'm in Torquay so I'm on the south coast too so I'm keeping my eye on this.