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iPope
26 October 2013 11:04:52
doctormog
26 October 2013 11:10:21

Met Office forecast/warning has been updated.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=sw

Originally Posted by: iPope 



One step in the matrix away from a red warning. Barring any changes I would expect some of the amber region to go red at some stage tomorrow.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
nickl
26 October 2013 11:10:55



BTW the mean data charts are next to useful when looking for exact details for a storm track as they will smooth out any specifics and remove detail as a result. All it takes for 20% of the options to show a different scenario and the mean chart will show a much more muted version of the storm.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



And ecm has 250% more members to 'smooth' out

Polar Low
26 October 2013 11:13:30

yep very good point looking at latest fax charts for sunday onwards


 


http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm



 


I get the impression from the output over the last few days that Monday's storm may not be the only one that will bring very windy conditions to the UK in the next few weeks we could be in the firing line for a few more big storms.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Absolutely. I've just posted in the Model thread a very similar looking system for next weekend which has a slightly further north track, but very similar in synoptics to what is coming this weekend.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Gusty
26 October 2013 11:15:52
Polar Low
26 October 2013 11:18:09
Rob K
26 October 2013 11:19:25
Last night's NAVGEM looked very scary indeed:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2013102518/navgemfr-0-60.png?26-00 

This morning's has a much less intense system:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2013102606/navgemfr-0-48.png?26-00 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Polar Low
26 October 2013 11:23:15

yes id take that Rob at the mo


 


Last night's NAVGEM looked very scary indeed:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2013102518/navgemfr-0-60.png?26-00

This morning's has a much less intense system:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2013102606/navgemfr-0-48.png?26-00

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Polar Low
26 October 2013 11:27:16

japs from last night I always look at her only seem to be only person on 2 who post her brain


lovely little model really


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=72&mode=1


 

roger63
26 October 2013 11:29:32

Todays 11.53 warning still amber and lasting virtually all day on Monday 

Girthmeister
26 October 2013 11:31:46


One tick away from a red warning now.


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=se&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1382918400


 


Yikes ! 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Possibly due to a) more confidence as we're nearer to the event, and b) if it's delayed until daylight hours, the risk of disruption is greater. Doesn't necessarily mean that the conditions themselves are any worse, just that their impact might be.

Gusty
26 October 2013 11:35:17



One tick away from a red warning now.


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=se&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1382918400


 


Yikes ! 


Originally Posted by: Girthmeister 


Possibly due to a) more confidence as we're nearer to the event, and b) if it's delayed until daylight hours, the risk of disruption is greater. Doesn't necessarily mean that the conditions themselves are any worse, just that their impact might be.


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Given that this has ticked up to one level below the red I am now certain that this will be upgraded to a red warning now. The only doubt is likely to be the timing factors now.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Polar Low
26 October 2013 11:35:21

Not going to get a "take action" r we Steve does my head in not sure what I can do?


other than make family safe and check my house buildings insurance excesss amounts etc.


not to late to phone I guess to check.


But the words Take action winds me up.



One tick away from a red warning now.


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=se&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1382918400


 


Yikes ! 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 

sizzle
26 October 2013 11:46:41

what a contrast to the weather from monday to tuesday look ahead, [ storm on monday ] tuesday dry sunny and calmer ]

doctormog
26 October 2013 11:52:20

what a contrast to the weather from monday to tuesday look ahead,[ storm on monday ] tuesday dry sunny and calmer ] UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: sizzle 



Then just wait a few days...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1861.png 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
sizzle
26 October 2013 11:54:13

[quote=sizzle;543410]what a contrast to the weather from monday to tuesday look ahead,[ storm on monday ] tuesday dry sunny and calmer ] UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Then just wait a few days... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1861.png[/quote]


 


OMG gosh, doc, thats another stormer, is this in FI or will this actully come off, sure one to watch,

doctormog
26 October 2013 12:05:09

what a contrast to the weather from monday to tuesday look ahead,[ storm on monday ] tuesday dry sunny and calmer ] UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: sizzle 

Then just wait a few days... [url=http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1861.png

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1861.png [/quote[/url]]

OMG gosh, doc, thats another stormer, is this in FI or will this actully come off, sure one to watch,

Originally Posted by: sizzle 



I doubt if it will come off exactly like that (as it essentially IS in FI) however it is an indication of the spells of very unsettled weather that I believe are likely in the next 2 or 3 weeks at least. It may start with Monday's storm but that might not be the only severe wind event of the autumn IMO.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
roger63
26 October 2013 12:08:05

!2.55 BBC weather forecast mentions Central Southern England and I think Wales as most at risk on Monday with gusts up to 80mph

sizzle
26 October 2013 12:08:40

what a contrast to the weather from monday to tuesday look ahead,[ storm on monday ] tuesday dry sunny and calmer ] UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Then just wait a few days... [url=http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1861.png

Originally Posted by: sizzle 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1861.png [/quote[/url]] OMG gosh, doc, thats another stormer, is this in FI or will this actully come off, sure one to watch,

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I doubt if it will come off exactly like that (as it essentially IS in FI) however it is an indication of the spells of very unsettled weather that I believe are likely in the next 2 or 3 weeks at least. It may start with Monday's storm but that might not be the only severe wind event of the autumn IMO.

Originally Posted by: sizzle 


thanks for clarifing that DOC, maybe nearer the time more details will be told but this one is coming north to south, sure one to watch. nice to see some proper autumn weather

Gooner
26 October 2013 12:16:48


!2.55 BBC weather forecast mentions Central Southern England and I think Wales as most at risk on Monday with gusts up to 80mph


Originally Posted by: roger63 


Oh bugger

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


KevBrads1
26 October 2013 12:54:26
Accuweather have written a blog on the possibilities

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/will-the-uk-storm-be-like-1987/19244656 
MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
AIMSIR
26 October 2013 13:08:42

It looks like a bit of a screwball to me and could end up anywhere at the moment.


It's a Bank holiday here on monday,so plenty of exciting weather watching on the way for me and the wife.


Looks like there will be some major Surf off the west coast of Ireland eitherway.

Lucy J
26 October 2013 13:27:13
Are we still expecting it to be hitting Sussex in the morning rush hour when I will be trying to get to my office just off the seafront in Brighton?? (I have a 25 minute walk so that could be a real battle against the weather if the storm is hitting us then!!) I guess there will be no point trying to use even a storm proof umbrella so I will probably have to rely on my long rain cape and hope I don't get blown off my feet!!!
beng
  • beng
  • Advanced Member
26 October 2013 13:33:09

Here's the chart for midnight and 12pm 16th October 1987. 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=16&month=10&year=1987&hour=0&map=0&mode=0


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=16&month=10&year=1987&hour=12&map=0&mode=0


On the face of it there's a lot of similarities - although things are never exactly the same.  It may not get quite as deep this time (although that remains to be seen) - but we may have winds still strong for the Monday rushhour - whereas in 1987, the storm had mainly gone through by that point.


I have a book on the Great storm of 87 which contains a synoptic chart for 3am - showing the centre over Bristol - with a pressure reading of 956mb - so it's hard to see us matching that with this coming storm - but I still expect notable destruction to woodland/property on Monday etc. 

Reigate, home of the North Downs
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