http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Very unsettled Met/o 12z.

ECM 12z also unsettled.

At least the latest runs move the LP to our east a little quicker than was being shown. ECM briefly brings sub-zero 850s down through the country for 3 days (Sunday to Tuesday) before the next warm wave flows in again briefly.

gm completes very unsettled period coming up

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=0&carte=0

Good evening. Here is tonight's view of the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday October 29th 2013.

All models show a ridge of High pressure crossing East over the UK tonight followed by a trough of Low pressure moving East over the UK tomorrow, slowing down as it reaches the SE tomorrow evening. All areas will see any showers die back to the West coast tonight leading to a cold night with a touch of frost followed by a bright start tomorrow with rain moving East across the UK tomorrow. On Thursday the rain will of cleared the SE but with a Westerly flow over the UK there will be an increasing amount of rain and showers across the UK by the end of the day. On Friday Southern areas will see more rain late in the day as a small Low moves east close to the SW. Then through the weekend a deep Low pressure area moves in from the West across the heart of the UK with spells of heavy rain and heavy squally showers in increasingly chilly conditions for all.

GFS then shows continuing unsettled weather at the start of next week lasting through to midweek with Westerly winds strong at times with further troughs crossing quickly East on occasion with further rainfall in average temperatures. A window of fine weather is then shown around day 10 as a High pressure ridge builds from the SE. Further Low pressure then moves back in after a couple of days with renewed West or SW winds and rain bearing troughs affecting all of the UK late in the run.

UKMO tonight shows a complex structure of Low pressure to the NE of the UK with weaker Low pressure areas over the UK. A broad ridge of High pressure lies in mid Atlantic. Very unsettled weather would be endured by all areas as rain and showers continue to circulate the Low pressure area to the NE.

GEM looks totally unsettled tonight with strong WNW winds over the UK almost entirely over the period from the weekend. There will be plenty of heavy and squally showers for all areas with strong and gusty winds continuing to buffet the UK in relatively average temperatures.

NAVGEM closes it's run with a ridge of High pressure collapsing SE over the UK early next week with the weekend wind, rain and showers clearing away to fine and cold interlude with a frost before a warm front crossing East by midweek brings a return to mild and damp weather with some rain at the end of the run.

ECM maintains it's unsettled stance of this morning with complex Low pressure at the weekend bringing rain and heavy showers across the UK while by midweek it would become cold with some wintry showers in the North and the risk of night time frost. Later in the run the winds do settle back towards the West or even South of West with rising temperatures and rain at times for all again by Day 10.

The GFS Ensembles continue to look pretty standard fayre for the early part of November with things averaging a smidgen above the long term mean when taking the members of the pack as a whole. There is an undulating pattern too which suggest frequent passing of opposing air masses carried in on the back of a strong Westerly flow for much of the time. Rainfall is heavy and copious in places next week before gradually reducing to average levels by the end of the run.

The Jet Stream continues to show the flow crossing the Atlantic and across the British Isles for the foreseeable future with a slow drift towards the north likely over the second half of the run.

In Summary a very unsettled set of model runs tonight seem to highlight another potent Low at the weekend delivering another spell of wet and very windy weather, though not to the extent of the severe weather the SE endured early this week. Nevertheless, rainfall will become a talking point as ground becomes saturated giving local flooding possibilities at times early next week. Beyond that and there is every chance that the weather will remain changeable with rain, wind and showers affecting all areas at times. With winds always maintaining a Westerly bias it is unlikely there would be much in the way of cold weather anywhere.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

Thanks Martin

looks like that little low is going to run right through s england Saturday and slow down as James said this morning very wet indeed

then out west we face another soaking.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

Little change in the overall theme from GFS, with the signal still for unsettled westerlies, potentially with a greadual lowering of surface temperatures as polar maritime air becomes increasingly favoured over tropical maritime.

The signal for changes in the Arctic to higher pressure, with a displaced/split PV, remains in place, but the conditions have more difficulty establishing on the 12z run compared to those before it.

We often see the models bringing about changes to the PV too quickly and having to slow things down a bit, so this kind of adjustment may continue to occur for a few more days.

ECM's 12z run does, however, throw a bit of a curve-ball, as for days 8-10 it keeps all of the Arctic PV energy out of the U.S., unlike GFS, which has it pushing into the northern states. This relatively small difference allows heights to rise markedly across the Alaska, the U.S. and Canada, quickly progressing into the high Arctic with the PV becoming displaced largely to the east of Siberia. Some energy drops into the Atlantic and keeps the UK in a westerly regime for a little while longer.

Interesting signals, then, but nothing at all concrete. Mid-November remains a reasonable estimate for the UK breaking out of the westerly pattern, but that's only a rough guide at this stage.

Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday October 30th 2013.

All models maintain a very unsettled theme over the coming 4-5 days. A weak ridge is moving away East and a cold front will move slowly ESE across the UK today and tonight bringing a spell of rain for all, slow to clear the SE tonight. All other areas will become clearer but with showers in the NW and these will extend to other areas tomorrow in a blustery West wind. On Friday pressure will be falling across the UK and it looks like a disturbed weekend is likely with rain and showers for all and it will feel quite chilly by Sunday. Most models support quite a deep Low pressure crossing Northern Britain on Sunday though ECM doesn't develop this as much today.

GFS then leads us into the new week with continued Low pressure sliding ESE across Southern Britain early next week with these areas seeing a cold and wet spell early in the week. the North would maintain a showery theme. From midweek on milder air will be wafting across the UK on backing wind towards the SW but further cold fronts will bring a succession of injections of polar maritime air with sunshine and showers. This pattern sees us through to the end of the run with strong winds at times blowing from the West.

UKMO closes it's run early next week with a bank of Low pressure to the North-west and NE of the UK with a chilly and unstable NW flow across Britain with rain and showers at times with some drier intervals in between. Milder air in association with the Low to the NW is waiting in the wings to maintain the changeable but probably milder feed of strong winds across the UK from midweek.

GEM today is very unsettled with continuous spells of rain alternating with colder and brighter weather when a mix of sunshine and showers would be more likely. A few drier periods in association with transient ridges moving across between the systems would be our only prospect of a drier period between the rain. Temperatures would fluctuate between rather mild in the South at times to rather cold in the polar maritime feeds behind each cold front.

NAVGEM also highlights a rather cold and unsettled start to next week as it pulls Low pressure ESE across Southern Britain and over to Europe. the cyclonic cold winds with rain and showers eventually become replaced by milder but still equally unsettled conditions from midweek as milder air returns from the Atlantic.

ECM today highlights a very unsettled and rather chilly start to next week with rain or showers as Low pressure slides ESE across Southern Britain. By midweek this is superseded by milder air behind a warm front moving East over Britain which leads us back into unsettled and windy weather with rain at times, heaviest in the North and West by late in the week. Temperatures would likely recover by then to near the early November average.

The GFS Ensembles today show a lot of scatter from mid run this morning all based around a continuing Autumn pattern of a basic Westerly airflow, strong at times and with  successive pulses of warm tropical maritime air alternating with colder polar maritime air as each frontal system passes. In this format there is little opportunity for anything meaningfully cold hence none shown.

The Jet Stream maintains it's powerful status crossing the Atlantic and over the UK throughout the entire run and I expect to see little change to the weather pattern over the UK as a result while this pattern is maintained.

In Summary it's a continuation of what's gone before today with unsettled and windy weather under a totally Atlantic dominated weather pattern with the Azores High well at home to the SW and Low pressure to the North. The strong Jet over the Atlantic and over the UK continues to feed in successive Low's and troughs across the Atlantic and over the UK with their attendant rain and showers. With such Atlantic domination there is little opportunity for any meaningful cold weather though there is a window of rather chilly conditions early next week for all as winds tilt more North or NW for a time when the Scottish mountains could see some snowfall for a time. However, it doesn't take long for the Atlantic conveyor belt to shove this out of the way in preference to milder and windy weather with further rain for all later next week and beyond.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm