Good morning everyone. Here is the report on the 12 midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday October 29th 2013.
All models paint an unsettled picture for the remainder of the week. Having said that the weak NW flow today will be superseded by a ridge of high pressure crossing tonight. Hard on it's heels will be a cold front which will cross the UK through tomorrow with a band of rain followed by a showery Westerly flow on Thursday, most of the showers to the North and West. On Friday complex synoptics with pressure falling means all areas can expect some rain at some point, heavy for a few before a more coherent spell of wet weather crosses from the West to begin the weekend followed by a very showery cyclonic flow with strong winds from the West or NW for many Southern areas late in the weekend.
GFS shows a very unsettled operational run this morning with a strong Westerly flow throughout carrying gales and bands of rain and showers frequently East which lasts through much of next week before a High pressure ridge extends North over the UK at the end of the run with much lighter winds and frost and fog.
UKMO today closes it's run with deep Low pressure out over the North Sea with trailing Low pressure over the UK and the Atlantic gives rise to spells of rain and showers in rather cold conditions overall. Some of the rain would be heavy and thundery and fall as snow at times over Scottish hills.
GEM shows a very blustery and unsettled period over the weekend and into next week with some cold weather to be found as winds swing North for a time. There would be strong winds and rain at times alternating with a sunshine and shower mix when some of the showers could be heavy and thundery and fall as snow for a time on Scottish mountains. A broad Westerly flow ends the run later next week with milder air with rain at times, heaviest in the North and West.
NAVGEM also brings deep low pressure across the UK at the weekend and out into the North sea where it becomes slow moving for several days allowing colder air to feed South over the UK with periods of rain gradually giving way to showers and sunny intervals. the showers would be heavy and thundery near the coasts especially and again could fall as snow over Northern hills.
ECM shows Low pressure well in control too as we move into next week with successive Lows and fronts to the North crossing the UK with Westerly winds and bands of rain followed by showers the main events of the period. Though a little colder at times temperatures overall would not stray too far from normal.
The GFS Ensembles show a sustained period of uppers that are normal or thereabouts. There is a lot of rain shown on occasion indicating a strong Westerly bias over the UK but there will be some colder incursions in the wake of Lows and troughs exiting East out of the UK. Late in the run the Jet Stream heads North raising uppers above average again and then less rain is indicated in the South.
The Jet Stream continues to blow strongly over the vicinity of the UK through what's left of this week, the weekend and beyond before as indicated above there are signs it could migrate North and allow less volatile weather across the UK, especially over the South.
In Summary things still look very unsettled this morning with the next few days looking the most reliably fair days shown in the output today in the South. Winds look like freshening again by the weekend with gales and heavy rain at times for all as another large depression crosses the UK. Thereafter a Westerly flow maintains very changeable weather but never overly cold though a Northerly incursion for a time early next week is shown by some output. Overall though a typically Autumnal period of weather is maintained with only isolated colder periods when a touch of frost could develop should skies be allowed to clear overnight.
Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset