Good morning everyone. Here is the report on the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday November 8th 2013.
All models show a showery Westerly flow across the UK with embedded troughs bringing more prolonged showers or outbreaks of rain East across the UK for a time today and again tomorrow. On Sunday a swing of winds to the NW will herald the arrival of a transient ridge of High pressure with light winds, sunny spells and rather cold weather before winds back SW and bring a warm front across the UK on Monday with rain and strong winds for a time. By Tuesday the cold front attached to Low pressure crossing East to the North will cross SE over the UK with another band of rain with a return to NW winds and cooler conditions by midweek with some scattered showers over the North, wintry on hills.
GFS then keeps High pressure close to the SW of England for the remainder of next week and into the weekend with a frontal boundary somewhere over the UK giving further outbreaks of rain at times alternating with clearer and colder weather, this felt more in the North and NE where winds will be strongest at times. In the SW there will be very little rain but a lot of cloud overall with average temperatures under lighter winds. Little changes over the second phase of the run with High pressure remaining to the South of the UK with the North seeing the biggest share of wind and rain while the South stays dry and at times somewhat colder and misty. however, towards the very end of the run Low pressure digs down deeper over the UK bringing the risk of very windy and wet conditions to all areas.
UKMO today also has High pressure down to the SW late next week with alternating spells of milder and cloudy weather with rain at times in the North with clearer and colder conditions with NW and occasional showers in the North and East. The SW could well escape with the least rain and temperatures remaining near to the average throughout.
GEM holds a candle out to those looking for cold this morning as it holds a similar pattern to the other output for a week's time with rain at times, chiefly in the North and drier conditions towards the South. Late in it's run though it drives deep Low pressure down over Europe encouraging High pressure to develop and ridge north out to the West of the UK with Greenland becoming very High pressure based. On this occasion it looks like Northerly winds and snow showers and frosty night could be just around the corner after day 10.
NAVGEM shows High pressure over or to the SW late next week with a mild WSW flow across the North while Southern areas see lighter winds and rather cloudy benign conditions in temperatures close to average. Rainfall would be reserved only for the far North at this juncture.
ECM today holds High pressure further out to the SW than some of the other output. This would have the effect of bringing the South into periods of rain and showers too at times with some short and rather colder periods with sunshine and showers, these chiefly in the North. Temperatures though fluctuating day to day would never stray too far from a mid November average.
The GFS Ensembles show a very sine wave pattern today indicating fluctuating periods of milder then colder days without ever getting desperately cold or mild. troughs would accompany such fast changing events so rain at times is shown by most members though no great quantities are indicated for more Southern locations as High pressure lies close by to the South.
The Jet Stream flow shows signs of tilting more SW to NE over the weekend and start of next week as well as moving further North to the NW of Scotland in response to high pressure building near to the South of the UK. It later becomes impossible to predict as it looks to weaken with no clear cut trend to it's position beyond 10 days from now.
In Summary the status quo in our Autumn 2013 continues unabated. The trend for most of the active weather fronts shifting further to the North remains as High pressure builds close to the South or SW next week with day to day changes ranging between rather cold and rather mild weather over the period as frontal boundaries pass through. Frost and fog will remain a fairly rare commodity overall but patchy frost and fog is possible under the transient ridges. It seems the chances of a pattern change that was hinted at yesterday has evaporated for now although GEM does hold an olive branch for 'coldies' to cling on to this morning.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset