Subtle hints at a change in pattern as we move through November.

Im in no rush at the moment.  Stormy and unsettled weather is what autumn should be about, besides if cold weather did arrive in November - it wouldnt be that cold.  The waters surrounding the UK would see to that. 

Id rather the colder weather hit in December and Jan when sunlight cant influence daytime temps much.  Locking in cold etc.

Late November sun is very weak Russ. Even today I notice it's low now in the sky.

True, but we have another 6 weeks before its at the minimum.  Another ~2hrs less sunlight to go yet.  I reckon thats why the 2010 spell was so potent.  Roads stayed snowed over - even on major routes (Lack of grit also played a part )  

Probably the most used phrase at this time of year, until January of course when it becomes 'if only it were February'!

Probably the most used phrase at this time of year, until January of course when it becomes 'if only it were February'!

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Fingers crossed we dont get  "if only it was July"

We had enough of that in the ealry 00's

The sun is the same in late Nov as it is in early Jan.

Plus I don't remember it being 'not that cold' at the end of Nov 2010.

Anyway, back on topic, ECM op and perhaps more importantly, mean hinting at a cool down mid month.

the polar vortex looking like its in for a 'kicking' on the 12Z gefs in week 2.

the ecm 32 dayer due out tomorrow am and we may begin to see a cooler theme on the meto extended.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=266&ext=1&y=4&run=12&runpara=0

GEFS progressing colder, with the average upper temps dropping down to -2.5C for N England out in FI, with the operational a distinct outlier. More members below -5, almost all below 0 and those tentative snow signals popping up and about. Nothing major at this stage but the start of a pattern change (to colder/winter weather) could be emerging for late November. 

Also, on a slight topic deviation but continuing the theme of a progression to possible colder weather, wasn't 2010 (excuse the hyperbole) also preluded by a Moscow heatwave? 

tentative signs people.  

Good evening and welcome to my evening review of the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday November 7th 2013. 

All models show a Westerly flow across the UK with showers in Northern and Western areas with the overhang of cloud related to the front close to the SE moving away soon so that these areas too join in with the showers and clear or sunny intervals tomorrow. It will feel chilly especially over the North and a touch of frost is possible overnight in the East. On Saturday another trough moving East may bring a further spell of showery weather before clearing skies under a ridge gives a cold and possibly frosty night on Saturday night. By Sunday a warm front along with a freshening and mild SW wind takes over with rain spreading NE over all areas later in the day. Through the early days of next week a series of weakening fronts crossing East and SE across Britain brings alternating periods of mild then cooler weather with short periods of rain and strong winds at the transition points. 

GFS then maintains this pattern throughout the remainder of the run with temperatures alternating slightly either side of average without ever becoming desperately mild or cold. The heaviest of the rain and the strongest winds will nearly always be over the North while Southern Britain could see some drier and lengthier brighter spells at times. 

UKMO tonight closes it's run with Low pressure to the North and High pressure to the South with a strong Westerly flow over Britain, strongest in the North where gale or severe gale force winds are possible. Rain would be sweeping East across the UK through the day. 

GEM shows a very windy spell with strong to gale NW winds as Low pressure moves SE over Europe. High pressure to the SW will ensure the driest weather would be found in the South while NE areas in particular would see some showers, wintry over hills for a time before mild and changeable conditions return from off the Atlantic at the end of the run. 

NAVGEM shows a chilly spell later next week as Low pressure moves SE over the UK with strong, chilly and showery NW winds giving way to a temporary NE flow over Eastern England. It then looks set to turn drier and fine over the UK but cold with night frosts after the end of the run covering next weekend. 

ECM tonight looks much like this morning with fast changing weather patterns in a blustery and sometimes cool Westerly airflow. Some rain at times is expected for all, heaviest in the North in the strongest winds while the South sees lighter rain and longer less windy spells in between. The end of the run shows a chilly and showery NW flow over the UK with wintry showers over the North and East ahead of a ridge of High pressure. 

The GFS Ensembles tonight show an up and down pattern in temperature over the two weeks. The general rule of thumb will be for the contrasts to be less felt over the South close to High pressure to the South and SW while the North sees more marked chilly spells at times with strong winds and wintry showers. However, there is nothing alarmist shown in the output tonight with rainfall though frequent and present throughout the run looks likely to be non-disruptive.

In Summary the weather looks like being very changeable over the period with fast changing scenarios between mild and cloudy weather with some rain, especially in the North and West mixed with brighter and drier weather if colder with wintry showers and night time frosts more especially over the North and East. All in all it looks a typical Autumn pattern of weather over the next few weeks with something for everyone unless it's severe frosts, fog and snow your after.

On the dry side I thought - at least in the east - considering how wet it can easily be now.

The signs are there for another 2010. But we will have to get unbelievably lucky to get anywhere near that remarkable Nov/Dec.

But the first tentative signs are there!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

Nice Scandi trough there..... nick

If only I was in Bjorli

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

Definitely a trend to raise some eyebrows as we head towards the latter half of the month, especially in the N.

The only downer of anything cold/snowy this winter will be the success claims of the now infamous agencies/D.E.

A few colder ones creeping in there Mike

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013110718/gfsnh-0-360.png?18

Again deepest FI but hints at a change

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=266&ext=1&y=4&run=12&runpara=0

GEFS progressing colder, with the average upper temps dropping down to -2.5C for N England out in FI, with the operational a distinct outlier. More members below -5, almost all below 0 and those tentative snow signals popping up and about. Nothing major at this stage but the start of a pattern change (to colder/winter weather) could be emerging for late November. 

Also, on a slight topic deviation but continuing the theme of a progression to possible colder weather, wasn't 2010 (excuse the hyperbole) also preluded by a Moscow heatwave? 

tentative signs people.  

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

The signs are there for another 2010. But we will have to get unbelievably lucky to get anywhere near that remarkable Nov/Dec.

But the first tentative signs are there!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

 

 

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

sorry, but there's not a single output out there that suggests anything like another 2010. That's not to say it won't happen, no one knows, bit there are no signs of it.

Originally Posted by: ITSY 

Sorry to admit but I have to agree with you Matty. Nothing in the outputs so far has reminded me of anything like 2010.

FWIW, here's the GEFS from this time in 2010:

http://oi41.tinypic.com/2iqhb1c.jpg

No sign whatsoever of any cold spell, although IIRC by now the MetO was mentioning a change to cold in their 30-day outlook.

Good morning everyone. Here is the report on the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday November 8th 2013.

All models show a showery Westerly flow across the UK with embedded troughs bringing more prolonged showers or outbreaks of rain East across the UK for a time today and again tomorrow. On Sunday a swing of winds to the NW will herald the arrival of a transient ridge of High pressure with light winds, sunny spells and rather cold weather before winds back SW and bring a warm front across the UK on Monday with rain and strong winds for a time. By Tuesday the cold front attached to Low pressure crossing East to the North will cross SE over the UK with another band of rain with a return to NW winds and cooler conditions by midweek with some scattered showers over the North, wintry on hills.

GFS then keeps High pressure close to the SW of England for the remainder of next week and into the weekend with a frontal boundary somewhere over the UK giving further outbreaks of rain at times alternating with clearer and colder weather, this felt more in the North and NE where winds will be strongest at times. In the SW there will be very little rain but a lot of cloud overall with average temperatures under lighter winds. Little changes over the second phase of the run with High pressure remaining to the South of the UK with the North seeing the biggest share of wind and rain while the South stays dry and at times somewhat colder and misty. however, towards the very end of the run Low pressure digs down deeper over the UK bringing the risk of very windy and wet conditions to all areas.

UKMO today also has High pressure down to the SW late next week with alternating spells of milder and cloudy weather with rain at times in the North with clearer and colder conditions with NW and occasional showers in the North and East. The SW could well escape with the least rain and temperatures remaining near to the average throughout.

GEM holds a candle out to those looking for cold this morning as it holds a similar pattern to the other output for a week's time with rain at times, chiefly in the North and drier conditions towards the South. Late in it's run though it drives deep Low pressure down over Europe encouraging High pressure to develop and ridge north out to the West of the UK with Greenland becoming very High pressure based. On this occasion it looks like Northerly winds and snow showers and frosty night could be just around the corner after day 10.

NAVGEM shows High pressure over or to the SW late next week with a mild WSW flow across the North while Southern areas see lighter winds and rather cloudy benign conditions in temperatures close to average. Rainfall would be reserved only for the far North at this juncture.

ECM today holds High pressure further out to the SW than some of the other output. This would have the effect of bringing the South into periods of rain and showers too at times with some short and rather colder periods with sunshine and showers, these chiefly in the North. Temperatures though fluctuating day to day would never stray too far from a mid November average.

The GFS Ensembles show a very sine wave pattern today indicating fluctuating periods of milder then colder days without ever getting desperately cold or mild. troughs would accompany such fast changing events so rain at times is shown by most members though no great quantities are indicated for more Southern locations as High pressure lies close by to the South.

The Jet Stream flow shows signs of tilting more SW to NE over the weekend and start of next week as well as moving further North to the NW of Scotland in response to high pressure building near to the South of the UK. It later becomes impossible to predict as it looks to weaken with no clear cut trend to it's position beyond 10 days from now.

In Summary the status quo in our Autumn 2013 continues unabated. The trend for most of the active weather fronts shifting further to the North remains as High pressure builds close to the South or SW next week with day to day changes ranging between rather cold and rather mild weather over the period as frontal boundaries pass through. Frost and fog will remain a fairly rare commodity overall but patchy frost and fog is possible under the transient ridges. It seems the chances of a pattern change that was hinted at yesterday has evaporated for now although GEM does hold an olive branch for 'coldies' to cling on to this morning.  

Traditional November weather - mild and cloudy followed by crisp and clear followed by mild and cloudy ... As a language assistant from Austria once complained to me "I don't understand British weather - when it's sunny it's cold, when it's cloudy, it's warm"!

But two comments on current model outputs

- the models have been trying to raise high pressure over the south on and off for a while, only for this forecast to be knocked down by the next Atlantic storm. While the jet stream is in active mode, this will surely continue

- FI has a northerly onset in the last week of Novemeber. Traditionally , as I remember from when I lived in Manchester, the Snake pass would be closed by snow in this week. You could set your calendar by it.

Day 3:

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20131108/00/ecmt850.072.png

Day 9:

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20131108/00/ecmt850.216.png

...Status Quo.

Up in the Arctic, the PV does start to split in two on day 10, but it's tentative and at unreliable range.

I'm not really seeing signs of 'another 2010' myself... just signs that the PV might take a knock on the head by the end of the month, paving the way for some pattern changes to take place at the mid-latitudes.

Roll on day.  10 Charts may change....Into ramps....

I thought it was much milder Nov 2010 not so wet either (could be wrong)

Very changeable set of runs this morning with brief, chilly ridges and sharp troughs.