Good morning folks. Here is my report on the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday November 9th 2013.
All models continue to support a well documented pattern for the next week. In short a changeable Westerly or NW flow will affect the UK through the period around an intensifying High pressure area close to the SW next week. The High will never be quite close enough to prevent troughs and some spells of rain moving East or SE from time to time, notably tomorrow night and Monday and again on Wednesday. In between rather colder and brighter conditions will interrupt these milder interludes with some sunny spells but a cold wind from the NW.
GFS then shows the end of next week with Southern areas becoming settled for a time as the High moves over with mist and fog and rather chilly conditions developing while the North stays more changeable with rain at times. At the start of the second week winds swing Northerly briefly with a cold shot for all with some wintry showers in the North and East and night frost with the end of the run seeing a rinse and repeat of this scenario before a High pressure elongates across the north with Low pressure further South bringing some rain and sleet and a cold East breeze here while all areas become cold and frosty later.
UKMO shows High pressure close to the SW late next week with a cold north wind over England and Wales though away from the odd shower in the East t would likely be dry. With a ridge over Scotland here lies the greatest risk of frost overnight in lighter winds.
GEM maintains a changeable theme right out to Day 10 with some troughs crossing East at times especially over the North with rain now and again alternating with rather brighter and chillier interludes.
NAVGEM builds High pressure across England and Wales next week with Scotland staying mild and breezy with some rain. Fog and perhaps frost could well become an overnight and morning issue for Southern Britain under light winds.
ECM potentially shows the first wintry blast of the season next weekend as a Low moves South down the North Sea with an Atlantic High toppling over the top of it to the North of the UK setting up a spell of rain followed by North then NE winds with wintry showers or rain and sleet at times all the way down to Southern Britain into the start of the new week.
The GFS Ensembles are trending colder slowly with the mean gradually falling just the colder side of average rather than above. There are no huge amounts of rain shown anywhere but there is some highlighting the proximity of troughs of Low pressure at times.
The Jet Stream continues to show a migration North next week as a High builds to the SW before it's trend becomes more undecided and broken beyond that.
In Summary today there does appear the risk of something rather colder on the horizon breaking us out of the Atlantic train. There are various ways that this is shown ranging from High pressure building across the UK from the Atlantic bringing a spell of quiet settled weather with mist and fog or the ECM route of sinking Low pressure South over the North Sea with an Atlantic High ridging East over the top and bringing a spell of much colder north or NE winds and no doubt some snow to the higher ground and possibly not just in the North. The problem is it is still a little too far away to give much confidence of this happening as shown but I do believe there are rumblings in the atmosphere which could produce something more exciting for the wintry contingent among us before long.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset