Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from the big 5 for tonight Saturday November 9th 2013.
All models show small variations on a theme over the next week or so. For that reason I am going to be quite brief tonight. The trend is for High pressure to build down to the SW of the UK over the coming few days. As a result through next week the weather will alternate between cloudier and damper spells with some rain while other days are rather colder and brighter with a chill NW or even North wind. With the proximity of High pressure where it is amounts of rain will likely be small with most of the rain falling over the North while Southern and SW areas remain largely dry nd bright for longer periods.
GFS maintains this basic pattern throughout the extended run too with large amounts of dry and bright weather over the South though with mist, fog and possibly frost problems at night while the North sees occasional rain to break up some shorter drier interludes. Temperatures will never stray far from average overall though with a few colder interludes.
UKMO ends it's run tonight showing a large High pressure near SW Britain though it's position could feed quite a lot of cloud down from the NW over the UK in temperatures close to average but with the risk of patchy night frost and fog should sies clear over the South.
GEM holds High pressure a little bit more to the SW allowing occasional troughs down from the NE at times with some rain and if nothing else a lot of cloud cover in fairly average temperatures.
NAVGEM relaxes High pressure over Southern England for a time before sliding it off over Europe. The North would see mild SW winds and occasional rain while the South stays dry with patchy fog and frost at times should skies clear.
ECM shows changeable weather at the end of it's run with High pressure ambling around the SW of Britain and a generally NW flow over the UK. As a trough carries a little rain SE over Britain winds turn Northerly for a time with the odd wintry shower in the East and frost at night before a ridge collapses SE over the UK on Day 10 with a milder interlude set to arrive on Day 11.
The GFS Ensembles show a very mixed pattern especially later on with a fair amount of members offering fairly cold solutions later on but a few milder options too. The one constant is that there is not an incredible amount of rain showing up with some decent drier spells especially in the South.
The Jet Stream moves North to the NW of Scotland next week while thereafter there is no clear cut clue on what follows to be honest.
In Summary the weather looks like slowing down over the coming few weeks as High pressure builds towards the SW of Britain next week. There will be some rain in places especially over the North where any heavy rain is likely. In the South there will be plenty of dry and relatively bright weather developing with some patchy night mist and fog and touches of frost. Some short and colder Northerly flows could give a few wintry showers over the hills but overall there doesn't look to be nothing too wintry on view tonight.
Originally Posted by: GIBBY