It would be interesting to know what the T+264 chart looked like.   Assuming the evolution plays out as per the 12z there must be a decent chance that the LP is heading E/SE.  The LP over the eastern USA doesn't seem to be heading east much and might promote some WAA.  The High west of Biscay could well be squeezed west as the trough moves E/SE.

I wonder how well that evolution is supported by the ensemble mean?  We'll know in an hour or so.

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from the big 5 for tonight Saturday November 9th 2013.

All models show small variations on a theme over the next week or so. For that reason I am going to be quite brief tonight. The trend is for High pressure to build down to the SW of the UK over the coming few days. As a result through next week the weather will alternate between cloudier and damper spells with some rain while other days are rather colder and brighter with a chill NW or even North wind. With the proximity of High pressure where it is amounts of rain will likely be small with most of the rain falling over the North while Southern and SW areas remain largely dry nd bright for longer periods.

GFS maintains this basic pattern throughout the extended run too with large amounts of dry and bright weather over the South though with mist, fog and possibly frost problems at night while the North sees occasional rain to break up some shorter drier interludes. Temperatures will never stray far from average overall though with a few colder interludes.

UKMO ends it's run tonight showing a large High pressure near SW Britain though it's position could feed quite a lot of cloud down from the NW over the UK in temperatures close to average but with the risk of patchy night frost and fog should sies clear over the South.

GEM holds High pressure a little bit more to the SW allowing occasional troughs down from the NE at times with some rain and if nothing else a lot of cloud cover in fairly average temperatures.

NAVGEM relaxes High pressure over Southern England for a time before sliding it off over Europe. The North would see mild SW winds and occasional rain while the South stays dry with patchy fog and frost at times should skies clear.

ECM shows changeable weather at the end of it's run with High pressure ambling around the SW of Britain and a generally NW flow over the UK. As a trough carries a little rain SE over Britain winds turn Northerly for a time with the odd wintry shower in the East and frost at night before a ridge collapses SE over the UK on Day 10 with a milder interlude set to arrive on Day 11.

The GFS Ensembles show a very mixed pattern especially later on with a fair amount of members offering fairly cold solutions later on but a few milder options too. The one constant is that there is not an incredible amount of rain showing up with some decent drier spells especially in the South.

The Jet Stream moves North to the NW of Scotland next week while thereafter there is no clear cut clue on what follows to be honest.

In Summary the weather looks like slowing down over the coming few weeks as High pressure builds towards the SW of Britain next week. There will be some rain in places especially over the North where any heavy rain is likely. In the South there will be plenty of dry and relatively bright weather developing with some patchy night mist and fog and touches of frost. Some short and colder Northerly flows could give a few wintry showers over the hills but overall there doesn't look to be nothing too wintry on view tonight.

Interesting there. I wonder if this November might turn out to be a normal one in most respects.

Your first post would have normally been spotted but the sniff of a change has got people so excited they're only scanning the thread for the 'S' word! 

Where did the expected S word come from...

Blimey, that looks like a deep plunge into the U.S

A few colder northerly based perturbations starting to show their faces in the output this morning.

ECM, GFS and GEM all show a deep atlantic low, an abundance of cold air to the north and strong ridging northwards of the Azores High towards Greenland in circa 8-10 days time.

One to watch. 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

Some increasing trends now that winter will arrive 'through the back door' so to speak over the next few weeks.

Quite. In the same way, signs of a period of above average warmth at the start of August doesn't mean "similarities with 2003". It's as if any cold/snow were being seen as "just like 2010", which is a bizarre way to look at it. As Matty says, it may all change. But the similarties when the above posts were posted are not there.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2403.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2404.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn24017.png

lol blizzards in the North

Hi everyone. Here is the report on the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday November 10th 2013.

The General Situation. The first week is fairly agreed upon taking us up to and including next weekend. High pressure is building down to the SW with a light NW flow over the UK today with sunny periods and a rather cold crisp day for many. Through tonight a warm and cold front move NE and SE respectively over the UK each giving a spell of rain with the warm front raining temperatures to mild levels briefly while the cold front brings colder, fresher weather back to all areas by Tuesday. Over the rest of Tuesday and Wednesday another ridge brings dry and rather cold conditions with the likelihood of a frost on Tuesday and maybe Wednesday night before a rinse and repeat pattern of milder, windier and wetter weather moves SE across the UK on Thursday. The end of the week and much of the weekend will see a lot of dry and bright weather before yet another trough feeds in from the NW later next weekend.

GFS then shows week 2 starting with Low pressure steadily taking over from the NW before deepening rapidly as it move SSE over the UK. High pressure builds North over the Atlantic and then NE across Northern Sea areas allowing a cold NE flow on the lee side of a deep Low to the SE. Then as this fills and a ridge collapses South over the UK an unstable north to Northwest flow sets up late in the run. All areas would see rain and strong winds over this period with some snow on hills in the North extending to all areas later as winds swing NE. The North would tun drier if cold and frosty before the Northerly flow at the end return wintry showers South across Northern and Eastern areas later.

UKMO shows next Saturday with a large High close to South-Western Britain with a strong Westerly flow across the North of the UK and a weaker one in the South. All of Britain would lie under a lot of cloud with some rain in the North but a lot of dry weather over the South if rather cloudy and mild.

GEM shows High pressure too down to the SW next weekend before it builds across the UK following a weak front with a little rain, in turn followed by cold, quiet weather with fog and frost night and well into the day for many. A further change then takes hold in the shape of a GFS type solution as deepening Low pressure slips SE towards the UK towards the middle of next week with rain and gales followed by wintry showers in a cold and strong West or NW wind.

NAVGEM today shows a trough sliding SE over Southern Britain next Sunday with some rain but pressure here remains high and this is likely to be snubbed out in preference to dry and quiet weather with the risk of persistent fog. In the North fresher Westerly winds will keep thing rather cloudy with occasional rain possible and average temperatures.

ECM today shows a more active trough crossing SE over Southern Britain next Sunday with some rain before a drier Monday under a ridge is the precursor to a spell of very windy West then NW winds for all. A spell of squally rain will move quickly SE over Britain followed by a cold and showery NW flow for all. Wintry showers would be widespread over the North and West in particular with snow down to modest levels at times in the North.

The GFS Ensembles show a fairly average bunch today with the mean for this run largely hugging the long term mean values. This is made up by some members showing rather cold weather and some mild which can hide the undulating pattern to the weather over the period. After a dry period through the middle of the week over the South occasional rain returns for all but no large amounts are hinted at.

The Jet Stream shows the flow powering further North over the Eastern Atlantic through this week as pressure builds to the SW of the UK. It then crosses East to the north of Scotland before slipping down over Europe. Despite accuracies falling away thereafter the flow seems to maintain a more north of the UK element while some other elements show a tilt of the flow WNW to ESE over the UK later in Week 2.

In Summary the weather remains typically Autumnal through the remainder of the month with something for almost everyone shown this morning. The first and most important point is that rainfall amounts in the saturated parts of the South will be less prominent over this period with longer dry spells thanks to a build of pressure close to the SW. This in turn will keep relatively mild conditions given the time of year though polar maritime incursions will make for rather colder interludes with the odd wintry shower and frost at night chiefly in the North. Thirdly, there is a trend shared between models of a shift in the Jet flow to a more WNW to ESE trajectory over the UK at the same time as High pressure to the SW loses it's grip somewhat in the second week and if this unfolds a situation such as GFS, GEM and ECM show for week 2 could develop bringing strong winds and rain and more importantly an injection of much stronger cold air across the UK with a wintry mix to precipitaion then possible almost anywhere, all this due to a sharp pressure fall over Europe. As always though this continues to be shown at times just beyond arms length and as a result must be taken very cautiously.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm 

I was flicking through the model runs earlier and came across that shocker. It really would be horrendous were that to verify. Of course it's far enough away for that feature to be greatly modified, or even disappear entirely come the time.

For ten days out, it is almost like an 'echo' pattern of the (potential) North American snow next weekend.

http://i.imgur.com/QxltqDf.png

Dec 2010 was rare , can compare all we like but a repeat is very unlikely IMO

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

A little different to the 0z

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2521.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn25217.png

Colder weather still on the cards

I think we are getting there. AO is progged to go negative, and NAO is following suit. Sometimes you get the former going negative but not the later, and when that happens its not generally enough to bring a sustained cold spell. However the fact the NAO is going negative too perhaps indicates the models are starting to see a signal that might become stronger in subsequent days, not weaker.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

Sometimes people get carried away. To put things into perspective Dec 2010 was truely exceptional, a genuine 'freak' event. It was the second coldest December *ever* in the CET series, which of course goes back 350 years. Nobody alive today is  likely to see something like that again.

There may well be significanlty colder weather on the way but it doesn't have to rival 2010 to be interesting.

I sense something may come from that lot - but lets not get carried away though.

You know, a month as cold as December 2010 isn't quite so unusual if it's January or February

Let's try not to drift off topic here please - the models are showing some interesting longer-term prospects at the moment, so let's discuss them

On a broad scale, I'm seeing an ever-stronger signal for the jet to tilt NW to SE, followed by an amplified upstream ridge potentially reaching up to Greenland for a time, after which we look likely to see the energy driven down into Europe becoming quasi-stationary, with a high risk of dank, uninspiring easterlies due to a major lack of cold pooling over the near continent. If we end up in that situation, retrogression of heights NW will be the greatest desire for coldies - and would be entirely possible given the overall setup at play.

GFS gets the upstream ridges going sooner than ECM thanks to a trough tracking north of Greenland rather than right through it. ECM goes with the typical track straight on through, but has a very promising trough/ridge combination unfolding on day 10, so really it's just a variation of the same idea.

We still have more than a week of westerlies to get through before the currently progged period of changes, but at least they look to slacken off under high pressure at times next week. Not sure if it will be crisp and clear, though; the airmass source looks to be a mix of tropical maritime and return polar maritime... sunny spells perhaps? GFS shows a few ground frosts to be had.

Overall I feel that the signals from the models are typical of the run up to a cold spell, but that could be anything from 1 day to a fortnight in length as far as can be determined at the moment.