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Quantum
Sunday, November 10, 2013 11:31:05 AM


I guess the issue, and the reason for the comparison, is because at this stage in November 2010 there were signs of colder weather in the charts. We all know how that situations evolved, but in many other years there have also been tentative signs of colder snaps or spells at this time if year. Some of these never materialised at all, others were nothing notable. I am not a fan of pattern matching but even if I were, it would take more than a few charts showing a day or two of potentially wintry weather to begin to draw any parallels to 2010. What I will say though is that there is a growing trend that there could be a couple/few days of potentially wintry weather in the final third of November. Hardly unprecedented but certainly worth watching.

Originally Posted by: Col 


Sometimes people get carried away. To put things into perspective Dec 2010 was truely exceptional, a genuine 'freak' event. It was the second coldest December *ever* in the CET series, which of course goes back 350 years. Nobody alive today is  likely to see something like that again.


There may well be significanlty colder weather on the way but it doesn't have to rival 2010 to be interesting.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


January 2010 was record breaking and the most wintry period since 1981, who would have expected a repeat less than 12 months later?

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Hungry Tiger
Sunday, November 10, 2013 11:38:12 AM


You know, a month as cold as December 2010 isn't quite so unusual if it's January or February




Let's try not to drift off topic here please - the models are showing some interesting longer-term prospects at the moment, so let's discuss them




On a broad scale, I'm seeing an ever-stronger signal for the jet to tilt NW to SE, followed by an amplified upstream ridge potentially reaching up to Greenland for a time, after which we look likely to see the energy driven down into Europe becoming quasi-stationary, with a high risk of dank, uninspiring easterlies due to a major lack of cold pooling over the near continent. If we end up in that situation, retrogression of heights NW will be the greatest desire for coldies - and would be entirely possible given the overall setup at play.


GFS gets the upstream ridges going sooner than ECM thanks to a trough tracking north of Greenland rather than right through it. ECM goes with the typical track straight on through, but has a very promising trough/ridge combination unfolding on day 10, so really it's just a variation of the same idea.




We still have more than a week of westerlies to get through before the currently progged period of changes, but at least they look to slacken off under high pressure at times next week. Not sure if it will be crisp and clear, though; the airmass source looks to be a mix of tropical maritime and return polar maritime... sunny spells perhaps? GFS shows a few ground frosts to be had.




Overall I feel that the signals from the models are typical of the run up to a cold spell, but that could be anything from 1 day to a fortnight in length as far as can be determined at the moment.


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


Cheers James - that explains things very well.

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Chunky Pea
Sunday, November 10, 2013 11:47:08 AM




Some of us have already said that this year has some similarities with 2010. Even more so this morning.


Originally Posted by: Caz 


 


I dunno. There seemed to be a just a little bit more 'umph' in the north Atlantic pattern at this stage in November 2010; although both fairly similar alright, if only because both patterns are pretty much what you would expect at this time of year. :)


http://omg.wthax.org/6rkN96.png


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

Welcome to the forum!! 


Your first post would have normally been spottedbut the sniff of a change has got people so excited they're only scanning the thread for the 'S' word! 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
nickl
Sunday, November 10, 2013 11:53:18 AM


I think we are getting there. AO is progged to go negative, 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


barely and presumably only from the last run. i dont see a neg AO as the likely way forward unless the vortex is completely dirupted. if it does suffer a hit, looks more likely to be displaced than split. and we normally need a big neg AO to deliver a lengthy cold period.


SC's post is just about spot on. our side of the NH will head into an amplified spell. how long and where we sit within it are now the questions. and lest not forget its november so we probably have to look a fair distance for uppers low and large (in area) enough to bring proper snowfall.

Polar Low
Sunday, November 10, 2013 12:00:14 PM

Yes James , you will pass your masters no problem super post, you can see that here as the energy continues to try to dig into Europe.


Energy trying to dig further south today would  not take much to even get a easterly of sorts later on we will have to wait and see.


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html


 


 


 



You know, a month as cold as December 2010 isn't quite so unusual if it's January or February




Let's try not to drift off topic here please - the models are showing some interesting longer-term prospects at the moment, so let's discuss them




On a broad scale, I'm seeing an ever-stronger signal for the jet to tilt NW to SE, followed by an amplified upstream ridge potentially reaching up to Greenland for a time, after which we look likely to see the energy driven down into Europe becoming quasi-stationary, with a high risk of dank, uninspiring easterlies due to a major lack of cold pooling over the near continent. If we end up in that situation, retrogression of heights NW will be the greatest desire for coldies - and would be entirely possible given the overall setup at play.


GFS gets the upstream ridges going sooner than ECM thanks to a trough tracking north of Greenland rather than right through it. ECM goes with the typical track straight on through, but has a very promising trough/ridge combination unfolding on day 10, so really it's just a variation of the same idea.




We still have more than a week of westerlies to get through before the currently progged period of changes, but at least they look to slacken off under high pressure at times next week. Not sure if it will be crisp and clear, though; the airmass source looks to be a mix of tropical maritime and return polar maritime... sunny spells perhaps? GFS shows a few ground frosts to be had.




Overall I feel that the signals from the models are typical of the run up to a cold spell, but that could be anything from 1 day to a fortnight in length as far as can be determined at the moment.


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Sevendust
Sunday, November 10, 2013 12:22:00 PM



I think we are getting there. AO is progged to go negative, 


Originally Posted by: nickl 


barely and presumably only from the last run. i dont see a neg AO as the likely way forward unless the vortex is completely dirupted. if it does suffer a hit, looks more likely to be displaced than split. and we normally need a big neg AO to deliver a lengthy cold period.


SC's post is just about spot on. our side of the NH will head into an amplified spell. how long and where we sit within it are now the questions. and lest not forget its november so we probably have to look a fair distance for uppers low and large (in area) enough to bring proper snowfall.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Any news from NAVGEM?

Polar Low
Sunday, November 10, 2013 12:25:03 PM

Here Dave


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=138&mode=0&carte=1


 


 


 





I think we are getting there. AO is progged to go negative, 


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


barely and presumably only from the last run. i dont see a neg AO as the likely way forward unless the vortex is completely dirupted. if it does suffer a hit, looks more likely to be displaced than split. and we normally need a big neg AO to deliver a lengthy cold period.


SC's post is just about spot on. our side of the NH will head into an amplified spell. how long and where we sit within it are now the questions. and lest not forget its november so we probably have to look a fair distance for uppers low and large (in area) enough to bring proper snowfall.


Originally Posted by: nickl 


Any news from NAVGEM?


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Sevendust
Sunday, November 10, 2013 12:27:59 PM


Here Dave


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=138&mode=0&carte=1


 




I think we are getting there. AO is progged to go negative, 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


barely and presumably only from the last run. i dont see a neg AO as the likely way forward unless the vortex is completely dirupted. if it does suffer a hit, looks more likely to be displaced than split. and we normally need a big neg AO to deliver a lengthy cold period.


SC's post is just about spot on. our side of the NH will head into an amplified spell. how long and where we sit within it are now the questions. and lest not forget its november so we probably have to look a fair distance for uppers low and large (in area) enough to bring proper snowfall.


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


Any news from NAVGEM?


Originally Posted by: nickl 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Thanks mate - Not what Quantum would wish to see.....or many others tbh

Polar Low
Sunday, November 10, 2013 12:30:05 PM

cool looking 0zgfs mean nice and split nice pattern


 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnz500m8.html


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnz500m9.html


 


many more members trending cooler


 http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/


a much dryer week to come with cool off hopeful later on but wetter also later on in the east.


http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

nickl
Sunday, November 10, 2013 12:51:47 PM


Here Dave
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=138&mode=0&carte=1 




I think we are getting there. AO is progged to go negative,

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


barely and presumably only from the last run. i dont see a neg AO as the likely way forward unless the vortex is completely dirupted. if it does suffer a hit, looks more likely to be displaced than split. and we normally need a big neg AO to deliver a lengthy cold period.
SC's post is just about spot on. our side of the NH will head into an amplified spell. how long and where we sit within it are now the questions. and lest not forget its november so we probably have to look a fair distance for uppers low and large (in area) enough to bring proper snowfall.

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Any news from NAVGEM?UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


Originally Posted by: nickl 


Thanks mate - Not what Quantum would wish to see.....or many others tbhUserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



Now you're just being mischievous dave!


Gavin P
Sunday, November 10, 2013 1:27:02 PM

Hi all,


Here's today's video update;


Mid-Atlantic Ridge And Possibly Northerly Winds Late November;


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Signs of colder weather, but still just hints for now.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
Sunday, November 10, 2013 1:59:16 PM

Sometimes people get carried away. To put things into perspective Dec 2010 was truely exceptional, a genuine 'freak' event. It wasthe second coldest December *ever* in the CET series, which of course goes back 350 years. Nobody alive today is likely to see something like that again. There may well be significanlty colder weather on the way but it doesn't have to rival 2010 to be interesting.

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

Hmm you would think so but how many expected April 2007 to be smashed just 4 years later? How many would have expected May to July 2007 which was exceptional wet to be broken just 5 years later in 2012?

Originally Posted by: Col 


We can all quote events that are statistically unlikely but my point still stands. Another December 2010 is highly unlikely within the lifespan of anyone living today.

Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Charmhills
Sunday, November 10, 2013 2:05:11 PM


Sometimes people get carried away. To put things into perspective Dec 2010 was truely exceptional, a genuine 'freak' event. It wasthe second coldest December *ever* in the CET series, which of course goes back 350 years. Nobody alive today is likely to see something like that again. There may well be significanlty colder weather on the way but it doesn't have to rival 2010 to be interesting.

Originally Posted by: Col 

Hmm you would think so but how many expected April 2007 to be smashed just 4 years later? How many would have expected May to July 2007 which was exceptional wet to be broken just 5 years later in 2012?

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


We can all quote events that are statistically unlikely but my point still stands. Another December 2010 is highly unlikely within the lifespan of anyone living today.


Originally Posted by: Col 


In your opinion of course.


Could have said the samething about the summer 2007, than along came 2012 and the rest was history.


P.s. cheers Gav.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
festivalking
Sunday, November 10, 2013 2:24:45 PM

 


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=138&mode=0&carte=1


 


 


Crikey that chart should quiten this thread down. Bring out the shorts

Dousland, Dartmoor 206 m/asl
Its only going to snow when Gibby says so.
David M Porter
Sunday, November 10, 2013 2:50:25 PM



Sometimes people get carried away. To put things into perspective Dec 2010 was truely exceptional, a genuine 'freak' event. It wasthe second coldest December *ever* in the CET series, which of course goes back 350 years. Nobody alive today is likely to see something like that again. There may well be significanlty colder weather on the way but it doesn't have to rival 2010 to be interesting.

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 

Hmm you would think so but how many expected April 2007 to be smashed just 4 years later? How many would have expected May to July 2007 which was exceptional wet to be broken just 5 years later in 2012?

Originally Posted by: Col 


We can all quote events that are statistically unlikely but my point still stands. Another December 2010 is highly unlikely within the lifespan of anyone living today.


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


In your opinion of course.


Could have said the samething about the summer 2007, than along came 2012 and the rest was history.


P.s. cheers Gav.


Originally Posted by: Col 


Not to mention all the poor summer that came between 2007 and 2012, although none were as bad as those two years.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
Sunday, November 10, 2013 4:23:42 PM



Sometimes people get carried away. To put things into perspective Dec 2010 was truely exceptional, a genuine 'freak' event. It wasthe second coldest December *ever* in the CET series, which of course goes back 350 years. Nobody alive today is likely to see something like that again. There may well be significanlty colder weather on the way but it doesn't have to rival 2010 to be interesting.

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 

Hmm you would think so but how many expected April 2007 to be smashed just 4 years later? How many would have expected May to July 2007 which was exceptional wet to be broken just 5 years later in 2012?

Originally Posted by: Col 


We can all quote events that are statistically unlikely but my point still stands. Another December 2010 is highly unlikely within the lifespan of anyone living today.


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


In your opinion of course.


Could have said the samething about the summer 2007, than along came 2012 and the rest was history.


P.s. cheers Gav.


Originally Posted by: Col 


It's not even 'in my opinion'. The stats speak for themselves.


 

Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
pdiddy
Sunday, November 10, 2013 4:24:55 PM


 


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=138&mode=0&carte=1


 


 


Crikey that chart should quiten this thread down. Bring out the shorts


Originally Posted by: festivalking 


hmmm. 8c on the 2m temps - you are obviously hardy souls in the south west...

KevBrads1
Sunday, November 10, 2013 4:40:03 PM

Sometimes people get carried away. To put things into perspective Dec 2010 was truely exceptional, a genuine 'freak' event. It wasthe second coldest December *ever* in the CET series, which of course goes back 350 years. Nobody alive today is likely to see something like that again. There may well be significanlty colder weather on the way but it doesn't have to rival 2010 to be interesting.

Originally Posted by: Col 

Hmm you would think so but how many expected April 2007 to be smashed just 4 years later? How many would have expected May to July 2007 which was exceptional wet to be broken just 5 years later in 2012?

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


We can all quote events that are statistically unlikely but my point still stands. Another December 2010 is highly unlikely within the lifespan of anyone living today.

Originally Posted by: Col 



It's funny you know because if you were around say in 1874, you may have said we won't see a December 1874 like that again, that was a sub zero CET December, the first for 90 years. Then came 1878 and then 1890, 3 in 16 years.

I take your point and your right but what that shows is that weather/climate is not dictated by statistical probability It will do what it will do.




MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
GIBBY
Sunday, November 10, 2013 7:20:15 PM
Good evening. Here is the Sunday evening report on the 12 noon outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today November 10th 2013.

All models show a better week than the one just passed. For many there will be a fair amount of dry weather with some sunshine at times. Equally there will be spells of rain too, these most frequent over the North with weaker bands affecting the South too on occasion, notably Monday night and again early on Thursday. By the weekend High pressure will remain close to SW Britain steering mild Atlantic winds across the UK with a lot of cloud for many but just light rain and drizzle near Northern and Western coasts and hills.


GFS then shows more unsettled weather working it's way down from the North and NW as pressure falls and subsequent troughs become more active. Rain or showers would become more active with strong winds to boot and a drop in temperature as colder uppers dig down over the UK. Late in the run the weather is potentially seen to turn stormy with a vigorous Low pressure area to the NE of the UK powering strong winds and frequent showers of rain or hail and sleet and snow over the hills. At the end of the run though pressure builds from the West damping down the showers but maintaining quite cold feeling conditions.


UKMO tonight shows next weekend with High pressure to the SW with a broad Westerly flow carrying a lot of dry if fairly cloudy weather with the occasional bright spell too. With winds off the Atlantic temperatures will maintain average levels at worst.


GEM holds High pressure further to the SW with troughs affecting all areas as they move SE. Some rain would be experienced by all at times with the heaviest of this in the North. A deep low is then shown to affect all of the UK with rain or showers as winds strengthen from a Westerly point when it will feel rather cold.


NAVGEM shows a WNW flow next weekend with scattered showers, heaviest and most numerous towards the NW while SE areas see relatively few while seeing some brighter spells. Temperatures would be close to average.


ECM tonight shows a slow decline into more unsettled Atlantic fayre for all as pressure falls and Low pressure pulls down over the UK from the West and NW as the High to the SW declines. The pressure pattern shown tonight at the end of the run doesn't support cold weather of any kind so the chances of frost and fog remain limited as cloud, rain and showers are far less scarce in association with Low pressure to the NW and SW.


The GFS Ensembles show a changeable week to come followed by a more definitive cool off, lasting two to three days before the output shows reasonable support for a return to average value temperatures in rain at times for all. Some decent drier spells are shown over the South for a time, especially this week.


The Jet Stream is only shown in a reliable time frame of 1 week at the moment when it moves North clear of the UK for a time before filtering back towards and over the UK early next week.


In Summary the weather remains very Autumnal. All areas will see some rain at times but with some good dry spells in the South between. Temperatures though never overly cold will feel suppressed at times, especially in the cool and blustery NW flows. In contrast some relatively mild West or SW winds could mean temperatures above average for a time early next week. Frost and wintry precipitation is possible over Northern high ground at times but there looks little likelihood of any meaningful UK cold for the time being from the weather charts on offer tonight.


Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset


Look up my New Facebook Weather Page  for all the latest up to the minute weather stories as they happen
Quantum
Sunday, November 10, 2013 8:22:57 PM

Has anyone noticed the unusually large scatter on the GEFS? I don't think I have seen anything quite so large in a while. And indeed the scatter for the 850s is actually greater on the 17th than on the 20th. The real divergence starts only 4 days after intilisation. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Polar Low
Sunday, November 10, 2013 9:17:33 PM

Thanks Martin

Polar Low
Sunday, November 10, 2013 9:26:24 PM

 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=13&ech=168&mode=1&carte=1&runpara=1


 Just for you Q


 



Has anyone noticed the unusually large scatter on the GEFS? I don't think I have seen anything quite so large in a while. And indeed the scatter for the 850s is actually greater on the 17th than on the 20th. The real divergence starts only 4 days after intilisation. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Polar Low
Sunday, November 10, 2013 9:31:44 PM
moomin75
Sunday, November 10, 2013 9:41:33 PM


Has anyone noticed the unusually large scatter on the GEFS? I don't think I have seen anything quite so large in a while. And indeed the scatter for the 850s is actually greater on the 17th than on the 20th. The real divergence starts only 4 days after intilisation. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Ah a return of the 2012 buzz phrase. Shannon Entropy!

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
beng
  • beng
  • Advanced Member
Sunday, November 10, 2013 9:46:03 PM

Hi all,
Here's today's video update;
Mid-Atlantic Ridge And Possibly Northerly Winds Late November;
http://www.gavsweathervids.com 
Signs of colder weather, but still just hints for now.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 



Excellent video Gavin. The CFS looks (for the moment) to be matching the output charts from the sea surface temp re-analysis - although I haven't got the link to hand unfortunately.
Reigate, home of the North Downs
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