Perfect weather for Matty really!

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

And perfect weather for the Energy Companies. The shareholders will be drooling as the plebs shiver together in the one room they can afford to heat. Another great triumph for privatisation

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

And perfect weather for the Energy Companies. The shareholders will be drooling as the plebs shiver together in the one room they can afford to heat. Another great triumph for privatisation

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

One of my hobbies is just how bizarre peoples views of common phrase's is. This is a gem - Are you alluding to Darren Lehmann the Aussie?

Originally Posted by: ITSY 

Originally Posted by: ITSY 

One thing that is irratating is the complete absense of cold uppers over the continent. We also are missing a strong scandanavian low to correct that. When that northerly peters out we are looking at cloud, fog, drizzle and snizzle at best unless we can get some colder air sourced in. 

EDIT: Look at this:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2013111406/navgemnh-1-144.png?14-11

Despite the NAVGEM offering another nearly perfect scenario insofar as SLP goes. All the cold air has not only left Eurasia, but even the arctic itself. Its all sat on the other side of the world in Northern canada. 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I hope it's a precurser to a cold & snowy winter, and not an early season flash-in-the-pan that sees winter descend into a zonal crapfest.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Originally Posted by: ITSY 

Originally Posted by: ITSY 

And perfect weather for the Energy Companies. The shareholders will be drooling as the plebs shiver together in the one room they can afford to heat. Another great triumph for privatisation

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Note to the moderators - isn't it that time of year when we setup a sticky SSW thread?

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Hmmn. GFS version of events:

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131114/00/174/npsh500.png

PV energy taking its time clearing away from Greenland and moving to Siberia. This allows the Russian Blocking High to extend through Scandinavia and use the Mediterranean trough to gain some influence over the UK. Unfortunately there isn't any real cold to work with in that setup, as the block hasn't got troughing underneath it to advect cold surface air from the Arctic regions of the continent. It's just dank and chilly.

In FI, if the PV had dropped some energy through Scandinavia, things coud have become exciting, but the trough/block positioning prevents that on this particular run.

ECM version of events:

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20131114/00/npsh500.168.png

The PV energy is clearing to Siberia much more quickly, keeping that Russian High away and allowing energy to drift just to our east on day 6, rather than stalling across the UK as per GFS. At this point, ECM throws some energy NE from the Atlantic and that messes things up a bit, allowing a ridge from the SW to link up with the Russian Block. That stronger PV over Siberia does come to our aid again by day 10 though:

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20131114/00/npsh500.240.png

The ridge to Russia is being supressed and heights are becoming increasingly high to our NW. with the Atlantic choked of energy.

So there's a lot of potential synoptically, but IMO we're going to need a lot of luck to score something noteworthy at the surface away from high ground in England and Wales. Still, you never know...

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

What I have noticed in recent years is how we get upgrades (in favour of cold) leading up to events. I remember back in those pre 2007 days we would view cold charts at T144-T192 and then await the dreaded 'downgrade' as the time approached.

It's not just the UK where cold seems to get upgraded as T+0 approaches. This autumn I have been studying the climate of Murmansk and its rapid decline from Autumn into winter patterns. The first snows arrived there in Mid October and has stuck ever since. There have been two or three occasions in the last month or so that the promise of milder weather (whereby thicknesses have been progged to reach 545 dam and 850Hpa's into positive territory at 144/168) only for them to end up in the freezer at T+0 with thicknesses and 850Hpa's remaining very low throughout.

Cold patterns in our corner of the planet seem keen to establish themselves these days..it seems the models are a little slower in response to this.

Originally Posted by: Gusty