Hmmn. GFS version of events:
http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131114/00/174/npsh500.png
PV energy taking its time clearing away from Greenland and moving to Siberia. This allows the Russian Blocking High to extend through Scandinavia and use the Mediterranean trough to gain some influence over the UK. Unfortunately there isn't any real cold to work with in that setup, as the block hasn't got troughing underneath it to advect cold surface air from the Arctic regions of the continent. It's just dank and chilly.
In FI, if the PV had dropped some energy through Scandinavia, things coud have become exciting, but the trough/block positioning prevents that on this particular run.
ECM version of events:
http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20131114/00/npsh500.168.png
The PV energy is clearing to Siberia much more quickly, keeping that Russian High away and allowing energy to drift just to our east on day 6, rather than stalling across the UK as per GFS. At this point, ECM throws some energy NE from the Atlantic and that messes things up a bit, allowing a ridge from the SW to link up with the Russian Block. That stronger PV over Siberia does come to our aid again by day 10 though:
http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20131114/00/npsh500.240.png
The ridge to Russia is being supressed and heights are becoming increasingly high to our NW. with the Atlantic choked of energy.
So there's a lot of potential synoptically, but IMO we're going to need a lot of luck to score something noteworthy at the surface away from high ground in England and Wales. Still, you never know...
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser